Welcome to the first VICE Sports College Football Bowl Projections of 2015. Now that we're nine weeks into the season and the College Football Playoff selection committee is about to put out its initial rankings, we can make at least somewhat educated guesses as to where schools will end up.
● These projections are based on what I think will happen at the end of the year, not what would happen if the season ended today.● The Playoff committee selects the top four seeds and places the top seed in the semifinal game closest to their campus. This year, the Orange Bowl and the Cotton Bowl host semifinals.● The committee also places teams in the Fiesta and Peach bowls. The Rose and Sugar bowls technically choose their own replacements this year, but they will rely heavily on the rankings.● Outside the New Year's Six, bowls sometimes have to pick based on conference standings but mostly are allowed to put together their favorite matchups so long as the teams fit within the event's tier. For instance, in the past, the Citrus Bowl got the second Big Ten pick and the Outback Bowl got the third. Now the Citrus, Outback, and Holiday are all equal in the Big Ten 2-4 tier.● If a bowl runs out of eligible teams for its conference tie-in, it can look elsewhere.● This might be the first year there aren't enough bowl-eligible teams (meaning that they finish with at least a 6-6 record) to fill out the total bowl lineup. If that happens, teams that finish 5-7 can be chosen.
Strong take, but we still think Ohio State will end up in the championship game. —Photo by John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Our projections:BowlDateMatchupTie-insNational ChampionshipJanuary 11No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 3 AlabamaPlayoffOrange (Playoff)December 31No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 AlabamaPlayoffCotton (Playoff)December 31No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
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PlayoffFiesta (New Year's Six)January 1Baylor vs. IowaAt-large vs. At-largeRose (NY 6)January 1Michigan State vs. StanfordBig Ten 1 vs. Pac-12 1Sugar (NY 6)January 1TCU vs. LSUBig 12 1 vs. SEC 1Peach (NY 6)December 31Memphis vs. FloridaAt-large vs. At-largeAlamoJanuary 2Oklahoma vs. USCBig 12 2 vs. Pac-12 2CactusJanuary 2Texas vs. WashingtonBig 12 6 vs. Pac-12 7LibertyJanuary 2Texas Tech vs. KentuckyBig 12 5 vs. SEC 3-8TaxSlayerJanuary 2North Carolina vs. GeorgiaACC 3-6/Big Ten 5-7 vs. SEC 3-8CitrusJanuary 1Michigan vs. Ole MissBig Ten 2-4 vs. SEC 2OutbackJanuary 1Northwestern vs. Texas A&MBig Ten 2-4 vs. SEC 3-8BelkDecember 30Duke vs. AuburnACC 3-6 vs. SEC 3-8BirminghamDecember 30Houston vs. Western KentuckyAAC vs. SEC 9HolidayDecember 30Wisconsin vs. UtahBig Ten 2-4 vs. Pac-12 3Music CityDecember 30Penn State vs. TennesseeACC 3-6/Big Ten 5-7 vs. SEC 3-8ArizonaDecember 29Akron vs. San Diego StateC-USA vs. MWCArmed ForcesDecember 29Central Michigan vs. Air ForceBig Ten vs. MWCRussell AthleticDecember 29Florida State vs. Oklahoma StateACC 2 vs. Big 12 3TexasDecember 29West Virginia vs. ArkansasBig 12 4 vs. SEC 3-8MilitaryDecember 28Louisville vs. NavyACC vs. AACQuick LaneDecember 28NC State vs. Arizona StateACC vs. Big TenFoster FarmsDecember 26Illinois vs. UCLABig Ten 5-7 vs. Pac-12 4Heart of DallasDecember 26Arizona vs. Middle TennesseeBig 12 7 vs. C-USAIndependenceDecember 26Virginia Tech vs. Auburn
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ACC vs. SECPinstripeDecember 26Miami vs. IndianaACC 3-6 vs. Big Ten 5-7St. PetersburgDecember 26Tulsa vs. Old DominionAAC vs. C-USASunDecember 26Pitt vs. OregonACC 3-6 vs. Pac-12 5BahamasDecember 24Marshall vs. OhioC-USA vs. MAC 4/5HawaiiDecember 24Washington State vs. BYUAAC vs. MWC/BYUGoDaddyDecember 23Toledo vs. Georgia SouthernMAC 1 vs. Sun Belt 2PoinsettiaDecember 23San Diego State vs. BuffaloMWC vs. ArmyBoca RatonDecember 22Temple vs. Western MichiganAAC vs. MACPotatoDecember 22Bowling Green vs. Utah StateMAC 2 vs. MWCMiami BeachDecember 21Cincinnati vs. Louisiana TechAAC vs. C-USACamelliaDecember 19Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas StateMAC 3 vs. Sun Belt 3CureDecember 19South Florida vs. UL-LafayetteAAC vs. Sun BeltLas VegasDecember 19Boise State vs. CalMWC 1/BYU vs. Pac-12 6New MexicoDecember 19Rice vs. NevadaC-USA vs. MWCNew OrleansDecember 19Appalachian State vs. Southern MissSun Belt 1 vs. C-USAAnd now I'll explain myself:● I've been on the Notre Dame train all year, and I think the Irish win out. Road wins over Temple and Stanford, plus a home win over USC and only one loss—a narrow one against Clemson—will get Notre Dame in.
Look, it's not like you can go home for New Year's Eve dressed like that. —Photo by RVR Photos-USA TODAY Sports
● Ohio State won't be the top seed when the initial rankings come out; they might not even be in the top four. But after beating Michigan State, Michigan, and the Big Ten West champ, the Buckeyes will have the best resume in the country.● The Big 12 is going to beat itself up again. Imagine that!● Stanford might—might—get in if it wins out; regardless, I see a loss to Notre Dame.● I have Iowa losing a regular season game and the Big Ten Championship, but just barely sneaking into the New Year's Six games over Utah. If the Hawkeyes go undefeated and win the Big Ten Championship, they're in the Playoff. If they go 12-0 in the regular season but lose the Big Ten title game, slot them in ahead of Michigan State for the Rose Bowl.● My favorite non-major matchups: Oklahoma-USC, Wisconsin-Utah, Michigan-Ole Miss, Washington State-BYU, and Cal-Boise State. I also really like Memphis-Florida and Baylor-Iowa, though that is to be expected for New Year's Six games.
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