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One to Watch: Derek Brunson vs. Dan Kelly

UFC Fight Night 110 could prove to be a definitive event for one of MMA’s most endearing underdogs: Dan Kelly. Derek Brunson stands in his way from becoming one of the most unlikely men to ever be within sight of the middleweight title picture.
Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC

We're now three weekends into this run of consecutive UFC events with the promotion traversing the globe and staging shows in Stockholm, Sweden, and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Next stop on the UFC world tour is on the other side of the planet in Auckland, New Zealand.

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt (UFC Fight Night 110) is the second time the UFC have held an event in Auckland's Spark Arena, once known as the Vector Arena. James Te Huna was the local hero headlining the country's first card back in 2014 in a losing effort to Nate Marquardt. The heavy expectations of a proud nation rests on the broad shoulders of Kiwi kickboxing legend Mark Hunt this time around, who will be facing the effervescent and uber-entertaining Derrick Lewis in a heavyweight clash.

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Like with most regional UFC shows, there are plenty of fights showcasing the best talents from the local area against more established international fighters. New Zealand's Dan Hooker is taking on bruising Briton Ross Pearson, Brisbane-based flyweight Ben Nguyen is slated to fight former UFC title challenger Tim Elliot, while Australia's Alex Volkanovski will square off against Mizuto Hirota to round off a showcase featuring some of Oceania's best.

But it's the clash pitting Australian middleweight Dan Kelly and American Derek Brunson which truly catches the eye.

Joining the UFC roster at the tender age of 37, Kelly's success in the promotion has, perhaps unfairly, come as a pleasant surprise. Kelly quietly built a solid 5-1 record in the UFC within two years of being signed, defeating the likes of Luke Zachrich, Patrick Walsh, Steve Montgomery, Anonio Carlos Junior and Chris Camozzi ahead of his last fight with former UFC light heavyweight champion Rashad Evans.

Ahead of the Evans fight, by far the best-known opponent of his MMA career, most of the focus surrounding his contest at UFC 209 was based on Evans' debut at the middleweight limit and the fact Evans was facing a man with a "dad bod" and a heavily-strapped knee as a result of reconstruction. But that supposed middle-age spread belies the unassuming Kelly's athletic talents, as the four-time Olympian deservedly won a back-and-forth decision over the comparatively-ripped Evans—shocking pundits and the bookmakers, who made the Aussie a +220 underdog. Evans had few answers for Kelly's timing and unorthodox striking from his southpaw stance throughout 15 minutes of fighting.

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As a result, Kelly earned a spot in the UFC rankings at 15 th and can now easily be considered a key figure in a middleweight division which finds itself in a state of chaos. Now, Kelly has another opportunity to cement his name as a middleweight mainstay with Brunson this weekend.

Brunson is positioned eighth in the UFC rankings and, on paper, is Kelly's biggest test yet, given how Evans has been experiencing a tough slip in form of late in spite of his name power. The 33-year-old Wilmington, North Carolina, native holds a solid 7-3 record in the UFC, earning consecutive first-round knockout wins over respectable UFC names such as Ed Herman, Uriah Hall, Roan Carneiro and Sam Alvey, the latter of whom being the sole man to have beat Kelly in mixed martial arts. In addition, Brunson has beat big names in Lorenz Larkin and Chris Leben by decision while in the UFC.

One of the more underrated top 10-ranked fighters in the UFC, Brunson has only lost to stellar competition. The former Division II All-American wrestler has only tasted defeat to Yoel Romero—suffering a knockout in the final round after decisively winning the first two rounds—Robert Whittaker and Anderson Silva. The loss to Whittaker, who is now an interim title challenger in his upcoming bout against the aforementioned Romero, snapped Brunson's five-fight winning streak. The American looked to have returned to winning ways in his last outing against Silva, but his Brazilian foe inexplicably edged a decision to earn victory instead. 19 of 23 media outlets scored the bout in favour of Brunson.

Brunson also brings an unorthodox striking style to the table—one which has tripped up many of his opponents as evidenced by his four UFC knockouts—but it's his wrestling attributes which provides his best base to win. Once again, little is expected of Kelly by the bookmakers this weekend and is listed as a +246 underdog. But that's nothing new for Kelly; he's been the betting underdog in all of his UFC fights to date. In fact, Kelly couldn't care less about what the sports books think about his chances of winning. "It doesn't bother me at all, and the good thing is – because I'm fighting better guys every time – that's how it's going to be," Kelly told MMAjunkie. "I don't care. It just means I'm fighting better guys, and that's how it's going to be."

Upon unexpectedly defeating Evans, Kelly asked for a ranked opponent and he's now got one as fully deserved. Given how Whittaker and Silva's respective wins over Brunson had them added to middleweight title contention talk, victory for the Australian judoka on Saturday could see him become one of the most unlikely men to have ever been within sight of the title picture at 185lbs.