The New Orleans Saints, Marching Down And Out

The New Orleans Saints are one of the great turnaround stories of the past decade. A mediocre franchise for years under Jim Haslett, New Orleans handed the keys to Sean Payton after the 2005 season. One of Payton's first moves was bringing in Chargers starting quarterback Drew Brees. It was a stroke of luck—after back-to-back star-caliber seasons, Brees was only available because shoulder injury worried teams about his future, and Philip Rivers fell into the Chargers' lap in the draft—that wound up changing everything about the franchise's fortunes.

Brees and Payton teamed up to create one of the greatest offenses in NFL history. The Saints jumped from 25th in Football Outsiders' DVOA rating in 2005 to eighth in 2006, and made the playoffs for the first time since 2000. Since 2006, the Saints have never finished lower than 12th in offensive DVOA. They finished among the top 5 offenses in DVOA four times in that span. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams introduced Payton and Brees to the concept of "defense" in 2009. The Saints won their first Super Bowl that year, and went 37-11 for a three-year stretch until BountyGate rocked the franchise.

In today's NFL, a passing offense is the most bulletproof attribute a team can have. Running offenses can vary wildly in effectiveness based on offensive line, personnel turnover, and injuries. The same with defenses. But a quarterback and head coach with a track record of understanding the passing game? That can only be ruined by a front office that gets lazy and neglects to provide complementary players. Well, that or an injury to the quarterback.

Or both, which is where the Saints are in 2015. The core of the team's championship-winning defense started to decay in 2011, and the replacement parts—and coordinator Rob Ryan's deployment of those players—haven't fixed things. With Brees closing in on his mid-30s, general manager Mickey Loomis piloted a pair of aggressive offseasons. He spent $56 million on safety Jairus Byrd, who hasn't played this season and was a massive disappointment when he did play in 2014. Manipulating Byrd's contract under the salary cap has made him the closest thing to an NFL equivalent of Ryan Howard—he's bad, and is owed so much guaranteed money that the Saints couldn't release him this season. New Orleans tried teaming Byrd up with Hall of Fame cornerback Champ Bailey, who retired prior to the 2014 season before ever playing a regular season down with the team.

As for the offense, Loomis tried to acquire a top receiver by trading up in the 2014 first round for wideout Brandin Cooks. To get there, the Saints gave up a third-round pick, or 126 cents on the dollar according to Football Perspective's draft trade chart. Cooks was injured in 2014, and this season has looked more like a projected No. 1 receiver than an actual No. 1 receiver. He hasn't topped 79 yards in a game yet, and has had major problems beating press coverage.

The Arizona Cardinals picked John Brown with the third-round pick they acquired from the Saints. Brown's arguably already a superior player. Through Week 2 this season, Brown had accumulated 82 DYAR. Cooks was at -11.

Dealing star tight end Jimmy Graham away for a first-round pick—as a result of having handcuffed their salary cap situation with the Byrd contract—left the Saints without a consistent receiving option. New Orleans got good value for Graham, and may yet win that trade in the long-term. But that doesn't help them today.

Brees had already begun to endure the Peyton Manning-esque slowdown, the irreversible and non-negotiable condition that leads to deep balls falling to earth five yards shorter than they once did. He's also dealing with a damaged rotator cuff, isn't likely to play in Week 4, and has no definitive timeline to return.

On — Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet)September 27, 2015

This left Payton with a completely bare cupboard against Carolina. He was starting a McCown brother—one step up from whichever one of the throwing Billy Joe's the Saints were rolling out there in the late 1990s—and running out marginal receivers in big roles. Somehow they still managed 310 passing yards and 23 points against a stout Panthers defense, but that was not enough to avoid an 0-3 start.

In the NFL, the end of an era doesn't sneak up on anyone. Tom Brady was dead and buried after Week 4 last season. Manning's career has ended so many times over the last half-decade that every bad throw is met with unsolicited business cards from funeral directors.

In that same spirit, Payton and (a healthy) Brees both still have a lot to offer an NFL franchise in 2015 and beyond. I don't think Brees, with recovery time, has the same kind of potential as Manning did when he hit Denver, but there's still every reason to believe Brees can still play like one of the NFL's top ten quarterbacks. Payton, likewise, continues to teach a master's course on how to survive with limited NFL talent. But the Saints are winless in a division with two 3-0 teams that have papier-mache schedules, and are seemingly looking down the barrel of a lost 2015.

As engaged sports fans, we often try to pinpoint the one moment when everything changed. The truth is that what's happening in New Orleans was set in motion years ago.

The new core of this team is led by the five draft picks they had in the top 78 of this year's draft. But expecting rookies to play well right away is folly. Expecting the rest of the roster to pick up the pieces in the meantime was a reach. The deals that set all this in motion were necessary for the future of the franchise, but they put Brees and Payton in difficult positions for 2015.

It took almost 10 years for this offense to finally come back to earth. But that is where the Saints are now, and with 13 games to go, the end of this Saints era is in sight. All that's left now is figuring out is what to do with Brees. In a league where Ryan Fitzpatrick somehow seems to be a starting quarterback every year, an aging Brees would be an answer for a lot of teams. For the Saints, right now, he's just another question among many.