Rivals Make Grabs for Agus Voters as Jakarta Race Heads Towards Runoff Vote

The coming runoff election in the Jakarta governor's race may hinge on the one candidate whose face won't appear on the ballot.

Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono received 16.69 percent of the vote, according to quick count results conducted by Saiful Muljani Consulting and Research. It placed Agus, the son of former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, in a distant third and knocked him out of the race in a single round.

But in what will likely be a tight race between incumbent governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama and his rival Anies Baswedan, the shifting allegiances of Agus, and its potential impact on his supporters, is casting a fresh spotlight on this failed gubernatorial contender.

"His voters are not loyal and militant enough, so they could be easily influenced by other candidates," Dendi Susianto, the director of Lembaga Konsultan Politik Indonesia (LKPI), told VICE Indonesia.

Anies was quick to step in, calling a press conference on Thursday to announce that he was in the midst of brokering a deal with Agus to secure the support of the political parties that backed him in the election. Agus and his running mate Sylviana Murni were supported by the Democratic Party and a loose coalition of smaller parties like the Crescent Star Party (PKB), the National Mandate Party (PAN), and the United Development Party (PPP).

But there's no guarantee that a decision by Agus to support Anies would swing any of these parties toward Anies and his coalition of the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS). Some, like PAN, are unlikely to support an opposition party candidate while observers question whether Jakartans who voted for Agus actually care what their candidate does in the run-up to the runoff election.

"Agus has very few loyal voters," Dendi said. "Agus would probably publicly support Anies but it doesn't mean his supporters will follow his lead. Because, again, they're very unstable, so it depends on which candidate can influence these 'pragmatic supporters.'"

Agus performed well in Jakarta's poorer neighborhoods. He was able to garner support in these low-income communities by promising cash assistance to poorer households—Rp 5 million ($375 USD) per year—and up to Rp 1 billion ($74,890 USD) in funds for community units (RW) to use for neighborhood improvement projects.

In a polarizing election season that split on sectarian and racial lines, Agus was a middle ground candidate—a face with a family name, little baggage, and campaign promises that were easy to digest. But this doesn't mean that his supporters would move as a unified block to another candidate.

"Agus had unstable voters," Dendi said. "Regarding the demographics, they're middle-to-lower class with low levels of education. So they tend to be pragmatic. For example, they can easily buy into [his] promises."

And there's also the fact that voters tend to make up their own minds, regardless of what Agus decides to do in the months leading up to the runoff election.

"Agus said he'd meet up with candidate #3 [Anies] to show his support," said Siti Zuhro, a political observer at LIPI. "If that happens, his 16% vote would mean tremendous. That's what's interesting. If you put [Agus's voters] on a map, the supporters of the two candidates are of similar groups of society, so there's no clear cut [distinction]. But Jakarta's political climate is very dynamic. For example, the religious conflicts will be assessed first by the voters."

His base is also far from uniform. Some of Agus' supporters were organizations with a long history of opposing Ahok's administration. These groups, many of them Betawi ormas, would likely swing toward Anies in the runoff election, but only because a vote for Anies is a vote against Ahok.

"Some mass organizations with strong roots in the kampung and poor neighborhoods, such as Forum Betawi Rempug and Forkabi, were also prominent Agus supporters," said Ian Wilson, a lecturer at Australia's Murdoch University. "These kinds of organizations are not overtly nationalistic or religious except opportunistically, however both have been vocal opponents of Ahok for some time, so I can't see them doing an about face."

But others were moderate Muslims from organizations like Nadlatul Ulama (NU) who will likely distance themselves from the more hardline and conservative supporters of Anies. For these voters, Ahok, a Christian, is a candidate who promotes pluralism and tolerance, both more appealing ideals than the kind of Saudi-influenced Islam espoused by some of Anies' backers.

"Less certain are those Agus supporters from NU and other traditionalist backgrounds who may be wary of the apparent alignment of Anies, with not just his PKS backers, but with hardliners such as Habib Rizieq and the FPI," Wilson said. "This may make them uneasy, and overtures by Ahok could possibly sway them. That said, his recent perceived slander against [NU elder and MUI chairman] Kya Ma'ruf Amin would make this harder."

And then there's the estimated 1.57 million registered voters who decided to spend last Wednesday as far from the polls as possible. Any number of these votes—roughly 23 percent of the electorate—are up for grabs if either candidate can find a way to reach them. With more than two months until the runoff vote, it's still very much anyone's race to win.