The Numbers That Predict Super Bowl 50, And The Ones That Don't

This feature is part of Super Bowl Week at VICE Sports.

Heading into Super Bowl 50, Las Vegas oddsmakers have the Carolina Panthers as six point favorites against the Denver Broncos. Of course, those odds tell us as much about public betting patterns as they do about which team is more likely to win the big game.

Can other numbers provide better predictive insight? You bet. (No pun intended). Let's take a closer look at what Super Bowl history and sports economists–including yours truly–have to say:

Denver finished the regular season with 12 wins and outscored its opponents by a total of 59 points. That's good! Meanwhile, Carolina won 15 games and outscored opponents by 192 points. That's better.

The bad news for Broncos fans? Since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970, only the New York Giants—led by Denver quarterback Peyton Manning's brother Eli—have managed to win the Super Bowl against an opponent who performed so much better with respect to wins and points in the regular season.

On the other hand, Eli managed to do this twice, both times to New England, once against a Patriots team that entered the Super Bowl undefeated and coming off a regular season in which they set league records for touchdowns (75), points scored (589) and outscoring their opponents (+315).

In other words, there's a chance-based solely on the above historical metrics-that Peyton can replicate his brother's magic. Just not a great one.

Relative to the Panthers, the Broncos held their regular season opponents to fewer yards and points per game. Since the old football saw holds that defense wins championships, Denver has an advantage, right?

Not necessarily.

In a study looking at more than 40 years of NFL playoff games, lead author John Robst found the impact of offense and defense to be essentially the same on playoff outcomes. Certainly, defense helps. But it doesn't help any more than offense.

Similarly, Manning's extensive playoff experience—this is his fourth Super Bowl, likely the capstone of a long and distinguished NFL career—doesn't give him an automatic advantage over Carolina quarterback and big game newcomer Cam Newton, any more than Newton's NFL Films-endorsed good looks and dance moves give him an advantage over Manning.

In an extensive study of NFL playoff games, Joshua Pitts found that there is no advantage to having a quarterback with more experience. There is also no advantage to having a head coach with more playoff experience, or a team with the same. Sometimes, older is wiser-but sometimes, older is just old.

At its core, football is a simple game: tackle the guy with the ball. So how do Carolina and Denver match up?

The Panthers ranked No. 2 in the NFL in rushing yards per game, and No. 4 in rushing yards allowed. The Broncos were a bit better on defense, ranking No. 3 in rushing yards allowed, but worse at running the ball, ranking No. 17.

Fortunately for Denver, the same Pitts study mentioned above also looked specifically at the impact of rushing offense and defense. It found that neither helps predict who will win in the playoffs.

Carolina has another seeming advantage over Denver: the Panthers led the NFL in turnover differential, while Denver ranked No. 19, giving up 24 turnovers while taking the ball away from opponents 20 times.

This should bode well for the Panthers—in any single game, the team that commits fewer turnovers definitely has a better chance of winning. But here's the catch: there's no good way to predict which team will commit more turnovers in the Super Bowl.

In 2011, Brian Burke and I found that less than one percent of a quarterback's interceptions per pass attempt in a season could be explained by what they did the previous year. A similar story can be told about fumbles. Basically, turnovers are a remarkably inconsistent stat.

Unsurprisingly, Pitts found that regular season turnover differential—the area where the 2015 Panthers were so strong-also fails to explain playoff outcomes.

So, does anything predict playoff success? According to Pitts' study, one thing matters: passing. A team's ability to throw the ball during the regular season—and defend against the same—has some crystal ball value. And that means Denver has reason for optimism, as the Broncos were better than the Panthers in passing yards gained and yielded.

Look, it's hard to fault fans and oddsmakers for favoring the Panthers. Carolina had a better team than Denver during the regular season. No question about it. However, the major statistical areas where the Panthers were superior to the Broncos don't seem to predict postseason winners. Air superiority doesn't mean underdog Denver is bound to win, but it does mean Manning has a shot—and as his little brother has already shown, sometimes a shot is all you need, regardless of what the numbers suggest.

See all of VICE Sports' Super Bowl 50 coverage here.