​Conference Championship Playoff Preview: Brady vs. Manning...'s Defense

Sunday, 3:05 ET (CBS) -- New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

Tom Brady. Peyton Manning. The two quarterbacks with whom we've spent the last 15 years are nearing the end of their careers, Manning certainly more so than Brady. And, for the second time in three seasons, they meet in the AFC Championship game. That tells you a lot about how the AFC has struggled, outside of maybe Pittsburgh, to keep up with these guys.

But even though it will be sold as Brady vs. Manning, the real excitement of this game will come from Brady vs. the Denver defense. The Broncos have been the league's best passing defense this season. Per DVOA, they were a whole 10% better than the second-best team. And, they're even better when edge rusher DeMarcus Ware plays. Three of Denver's four worst passing DVOA games happened without Ware, including their regular season meeting against the Patriots.

The version of the Pats we all recognize reappeared against the Chiefs. Had Kansas City actually played some form of hurry-up offense, the Pats probably would've scored 30 again. As it was, they effortlessly coasted to 27 against one of the better defenses in the NFL. (Albeit one that was missing both of its best pass rushers in Justin Houston and Tamba Hali.)

But a secretly scary thing about that game: the Patriots barely ran at all. They totalled just 14 carries for 38 yards. With both Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount done for the season, there's not a lot of burst left in this backfield. Bless Steven Jackson for getting to play in the playoffs, but he's all guile at this point. And that plays up against Denver, because if you're one-dimensional against this defense and play to their strength, things can go south.

My key to how this side of the ball turns out is an injury question. Broncos corner Chris Harris has been one of the league's best over the past few seasons. But he's a true game-time decision, and it's impossible to know how well he'll play through his shoulder injury. He left last week's game against Pittsburgh multiple times because of it. New England's offense always has Rob Gronkowski, but finding a soft matchup against a weaker corner for one of their other receivers helps them immensely.

The other side of the ball is much more meme-heavy. After years of being the best quarterback in the NFL, Manning is little more than a game manager now. His deep ball has abandoned him in the past, and it was the real reason Denver couldn't get out of the divisional round last season. But, at this point, the effort required to complete an intermediate route pass is telling. Receivers dropped a lot of his passes last week, but the slow release played a factor in that.

Denver's offense has been a roller coaster all season. The offensive line that was brutal earlier in the year has solidified a bit. C.J. Anderson has gone from fantasy football bust to someone averaging 6.7 yards per carry the last six weeks—a lot of that built against New England in Week 12. Anderson ran for 119 yards on just 15 carries in that one. Gary Kubiak would be wise to shed his running back committee and feed Anderson the ball.

I see reasons to like both teams. For New England, you believe in the quarterback and the head coach. Bill Belichick is a big edge against Kubiak. Denver has the homefield advantage, the defense, and is peaking on offense at the right time.

As much as I think they might be the worst team left standing, that leads me to Denver. I don't think they're better than New England. And, if New England was actually fully healthy, I'd say there's a fair chance they'd get blown out. But New England's offensive line attrition, uncertainty about Julian Edelman's foot, and depleted backfield will come to roost this Sunday.

Pick: Denver 23, New England 21

Sunday, 6:40 ET (FOX) -- Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers

The Cardinals survived Green Bay. They survived a Hail Mary touchdown, a resurgent offense, and an inspired performance from Dom Capers' defense. More importantly, they survived a near-meltdown from Carson Palmer, who was statistically the best quarterback in the NFL this year. Palmer led the league in DVOA, DYAR, and QBR.

I don't want to focus the whole preview around Palmer, but it's pretty obvious that he is the statistical difference between these two teams. Carolina's offense is excellent, and Cam Newton has every right to claim he had a better year than Palmer given the talent he worked with. But Palmer's season, with those receivers and that offense, was brilliant.

And last week's performance was catastrophic under the circumstances. Palmer was nearly picked off in the red zone several times. Palmer downplayed the finger injury that broadcasters talked about, saying the performance was more about jitters.

Whatever it was, the Cardinals can't play like that against Carolina. Green Bay was mostly able to stalemate the Arizona offense. Carolina will fustigate them.

The Panthers have been mostly healthy this season, and are fresh off beating the not-awake-yet Seahawks, although they nearly blew that game. Seattle's a special team, so I don't hold that against the Panthers. But it does create some nervousness for this week's game.

The Panthers provide difficult matchups for any defense. Newton's ability to run the ball puts a lot of pressure on linebackers. However, Arizona is pretty strong across the board on defense. The only position they allowed big success to, per DVOA, were running backs. But running back is not a position where Carolina has any star pass catchers.

In trying to pick this game that looks fairly even on paper, I keep gravitating back towards the differentiating factors and overall team health.

It's strange, then, that my lack of confidence in Palmer's health informs this pick more than anything. He's got the best statistics in the NFL this season, but can he actually perform this week? I've loved the Cardinals all season and openly considered them the best team in the NFL last week. But they can't have anything less than the best quarterback on the field if they want to win this game.

Pick: Panthers 30, Cardinals 23