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The Most Exciting 21-And-Under Players in the NHL

Down Goes Brown breaks up these young guns into four groups, looking at what they are now, what they might end up becoming, and their odds of reaching superstar status.
Photo by Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

This is part of VICE Sports' 2016 NHL preview coverage. You can read all our stories here.

It feels like we may be nearing a changing of the guard in the NHL. The Sidney Crosby/Alexander Ovechkin generation continues to dominate, as it has for most of the last decade. But there's growing excitement over the next wave, one highlighted by the success of Team North America at the recent World Cup, and we're already getting a strong sense of what the future looks like.

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So today, let's identify some of the most exciting young players in the league who'll be 21 or under as of opening night. (This isn't meant to be a comprehensive list of every good young prospect in the league, but just to save everyone time: If I left out your personal favorite player, it's because I hate them.) We'll look at what they are now, and what they might end up becoming. And we'll also look at their odds of actually reaching the top tier.

That last one may seem a bit odd—most of these guys are having an impact already, so aren't they all basically locks for stardom? You'd think so—but then you remember guys like Jim Carey, Jimmy Carson and Erik Johnson, and you remember that nothing in the NHL is inevitable. History tells us that some of these guys will end up falling short of the heights we all assume they'll hit. We just don't know who it will be… yet.

READ MORE: With Carey Price Back, There's Reason for Hope Again in Montreal

We'll divide our players into a few groups to keep everything straight. And we'll start at the top, with the guy everyone is chasing.

Group 1: Connor McDavid

Hell yes he gets his own group.

Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers

His game: McDavid is a classic once-in-a-generation franchise player who can do just about everything. His skating, hockey sense and creativity are phenomenal, and he can generate offense with elite-level passing and shooting. But what really strikes you about his game is the speed—he just does everything faster than seems possible. If and when the Oilers can surround him with the sort of talent that can keep up, he'll be unstoppable.

His ceiling: We could say it's being the best player in the league, but that might actually be selling McDavid short. The question is how good he can be. Better than Crosby? In the Steve Yzerman/Joe Sakic zone? Maybe even the Wayne Gretzky/Mario Lemieux range (albeit with overall numbers watered down by the dead puck era)? At this point, nothing is off the table.

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We are looking at a potential all-time great. Photo by Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

Superstar odds: 99%. Barring a significant injury, it's all but impossible to imagine McDavid not having a dominant career.

Group 2: The non-McDavid forwards

There was a time when it wasn't unusual to see young forwards playing big roles in the NHL. In the high-flying 80s, players like Lemieux, Dale Hawerchuk and even Carson put up 100-plus point seasons as teenagers, while guys like Gretzky and Yzerman were established first line players almost immediately. But as the game evolved and defensive systems took over, the learning curve for a young forward increased, and it became rare to see a young player excel without a few years of apprenticing first.

We've seen a bit of a shift back toward young players in recent years, partly thanks to teams realizing the importance of maximizing the value of entry-level deals. These five players aren't making anyone think of Lemieux or Yzerman just yet, but they've all established themselves as top six NHLers, and a few have already been all-stars.

Jack Eichel, Buffalo Sabres

His game: The consolation prize of the 2015 lottery would have been the first overall pick in just about any other year, and he's the cornerstone of a Sabres rebuild that's been long and painful but could be about to pay off. He's big and smooth, and after dominating the college ranks he put up a very good rookie season in Buffalo last year.

His ceiling: He projects as a first-line center who could someday put up a point-per-game or better without hurting you defensively. There aren't many of those guys, and the few that exist tend to spend a lot of time in the Hart Trophy conversation.

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Eichel is coming off a 24-goal, 56-point rookie season. He's 19. Photo by Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

Superstar odds: 90%. There's not quite a unanimous consensus that Eichel is destined for stardom—I've heard from a few smart people who think he'll top out at merely "very good" instead of truly great. But with one good NHL season already under his belt, Sabres fans have to feel pretty confident about what the future holds.

Dylan Larkin, Detroit Red Wings

His game: Larkin's most impressive asset is his skating, as he showed off at this year's all-star weekend. He's a creative offensive player who put up good numbers in college and debuted last year with a respectable 45 points as an NHL rookie.

His ceiling: In a league that's focusing more and more on speed, a player like Larkin can be a dangerous weapon. His history doesn't suggest that he'll rack up the kind of numbers that will challenge for scoring titles, but he's shown flashes of a strong two-way game that has even drawn some comparisons to Jonathan Toews.

Superstar odds: 70%. The question with Larkin will be whether he tops out as consistent 25-goal threat, or breaks through to be something even more. He's got a way to go, but his rookie year gave Wings fans plenty to be excited about.

Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche

His game: I admit I had to double-check that MacKinnon was even eligible for a 21-and-younger list, since he's already been around for three full seasons. But the top pick from the 2013 draft just turned 21 a few weeks ago, so he's well within our range. MacKinnon spent his junior career being compared to Crosby, partly due to skill and partly due to both being from Cole Harbor, Nova Scotia. He hasn't matched Crosby at the NHL level, but he won the Calder in 2014 and has put up 153 points over his three seasons.

His ceiling: When he was winning the Calder with a 63-point season as a teenager, MacKinnon looked like he'd be manning Colorado's top line for years. But he hasn't hit those heights in two subsequent years, dropping to 38 points as a sophomore and 52 last year. That's mirrored the Avalanche themselves, who looked great in 2013-14 and have floundered ever since. With a new coach in place this year, maybe MacKinnon resumes his upward trend.

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Superstar odds: 75%. The Avalanche still believe in him, as evidenced by this summer's big extension. There's still time for him to look like the sort of no-questions-asked first-line stud he seemed like as a rookie, but it's fair to say that the pressure is on.

Bo Horvat, Vancouver Canucks

His game: Horvat hasn't quite hit the heights of the other guys in this group; in two seasons, he's topped out at 16 goals and 40 points. I'm including him for two reasons. One, I plan to spend the entire season harping on how badly the Canucks need to bite the bullet and rebuild, so consider this a preemptive acknowledgment that "Vancouver has no young talent" isn't completely true.

Get excited, Canucks fans. Photo by Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports

But more importantly, Horvat's been asked to shoulder a lot in his brief NHL career. He was drafted with the pick the Canucks got in the unpopular Cory Schneider trade, and once he arrived in Vancouver he was almost immediately given some very tough assignments. His results have been mixed, but the fact that he's even been asked to try is impressive in its own right given some of the other names his early career compares to.

His ceiling: Horvat doesn't look like a guy who'll rack up big offensive totals, but he could develop into a valuable two-way forward. Maybe not Patrice Bergeron or Anze Kopitar territory, but a Ryan Kesler/David Backes type role seems reasonable. If he can hit that, he may also be the Canucks' next captain.

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Superstar odds: 50%. It's the lowest number we'll see on our list, but if you're the Canucks, it's by far the best you've got.

Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers

His game: It raised a few eyebrows when the Panthers grabbed Barkov with the second pick in 2013, ahead of Jonathan Drouin and Seth Jones. So far, the choice has paid off, as Barkov has already developed into one of the better two-way forwards in the league. He put up nearly a point-per-game last year while playing almost a minute more per contest than any other Panthers forward. But it's his defensive game that's really impressive given his age; he finished sixth in Selke voting.

His ceiling: We shied away from using Kopitar for Horvat, but it doesn't feel like a stretch for Barkov at all.

Superstar odds: 85%. It's a bit of a cliché, but Barkov will always fly a little under the radar playing in Florida as compared to the acclaim he'd get in a bigger market. Then again, that can be a good thing.

Group 3: The defensemen

We'll group these guys together since there aren't that many of them, which is what you'd expect given our age limit; defensemen don't tend to develop as quickly as forwards. Seth Jones just misses our cutoff by a few days, and Shayne Gostisbehere and Colton Parayko are both already 23.

(For what it's worth, we also don't see any goalies on the list for the same reason—there weren't any NHL regulars young enough, although Andrei Vasilevskiy and Matt Murray came close.)

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Aaron Ekblad, Florida Panthers

His game: Any description of Ekblad always includes words like "poise" and "maturity." That's partly because, even as an 18-year-old draft prospect, he could have passed as a 30-year-old. (Seriously, I was at the 2014 draft, and it was creepy.) But it also reflects his game on the ice, where he seems comfortable in almost any situation and does just about everything well.

His ceiling: He's drawn comparisons to Chris Pronger, although without quite the same mean streak.

Jagr. Luongo. Ekblad. There are lots of reasons to like Florida. Photo by Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Superstar odds: 80%. This may seem low, but remember, defensemen are always tricky. You never know when a kid who looks like he's headed for a decade of Norris contention will stall out as merely very good. (Remember when Tyler Myers was going to be the next Zdeno Chara?) Still, Ekblad's about as close to a lock as you can be at this age.

Noah Hanifin, Carolina Hurricanes

His game: After being the top defenseman taken in the 2015 draft at fifth overall, it was a mild surprise to see Hanifin stick in the NHL as an 18-year-old. That's a tough assignment, and by all accounts he handled it well. Like Ekblad, he projects as a top-pairing guy who can play in all three zones and brings a combination of size, vision and skating that teams drool over.

His ceiling: If there's a question around Hanifin's outlook, it's how much offense he'll produce. Still, any coach will take a guy they can throw out there for 25 minutes a night and trust in all situations, even if it doesn't come with Erik Karlsson numbers.

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Superstar odds: 65%. Again, we're grading on a bit of a positional curve here, and Hanafin has only one pro season under his belt. But so far, so good.

Rasmus Ristolainen, Buffalo Sabres

His game: Just slipping in under our age-22 cutoff by two weeks, Ristolainen has three NHL seasons under his belt and broke through last year with a 41-point campaign in which he averaged over 25 minutes of ice time.

His ceiling: Ristolainen is already a No. 1 defenseman in Buffalo, and projects to be a force in the offensive zone. He'll need to round out the rest of his game as he goes, but the numbers should be there.

Superstar odds: 60%. After Ristolainen's breakthrough year led to more attention and a deeper dive into his game, some questions started to emerge as to whether he was really as good as a first pass at his numbers would indicate. (One Sabres blog referred to it as "the summer of 'Well, actually…'".) He still needs a new contract, and it will be interesting to see if the Sabres lock him up long term or opt for a "prove it" bridge deal.

Group 4: The rookies

These are the kids who've yet to play an NHL game. That will change this week, and it may not be long before all three are all-stars. How long? It can take time, so we shouldn't overreact if somebody gets out to a slow start. We will, but we shouldn't.

Patrik Laine, Winnipeg Jets

His game: He's the prototype power forward for the modern game. He might not run over guys like a Cam Neely would have a generation ago, but he'll use his size to fight off defenders, win battles, and establish the space to get off his world class shot.

Look at that stick. Photo by Bruce Fedyck-USA TODAY Sports

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His ceiling: It's impossible not to compare him to Ovechkin, since both big European wingers love to snipe from the faceoff circle. He's also got the same sort of fun personality that can win over a local fan base, if not well beyond.

Superstar odds: 90%. ESPN scouting guru Corey Pronman has Laine at the top of his rankings heading into the season.

Dylan Strome, Arizona Coyotes

His game: The third overall pick in last year's draft isn't a lock to stick with the Coyotes this year, but he's already done everything you could ask for in junior, dominating the OHL and the World Juniors. He's a big playmaker with fantastic hockey sense, and once he fills out a bit he should be a force. He's ready for the next step, and he'd join Max Domi and Anthony Duclair on a Coyotes team that looks like it will be awfully dangerous in a few years.

His ceiling: Strome could have been in the NHL last year; he was the Coyotes' last cut before the season started. His skating is a concern, and could keep him from hitting truly elite levels, but big centers with this sort of offensive skill are the kind of players you build your first line around for a decade.

Superstar odds: 65%. He didn't exactly blow anyone away at camp this year, and he could take a season or two to really find his footing in the league. But it's extremely rare for someone to crush the junior ranks the way Strome has and not eventually put up big numbers in the big leagues.

Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs

His game: The No. 1 pick of the 2016 draft is easily the best prospect the Leafs have had over the last three decades, if not more. He's big, he has great hockey sense, and he owns a quick shot that's been compared to Sakic. He was the youngest member of Team North America at the World Cup, and more than held his own.

No pressure, kid. Photo by Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

His ceiling: As prospects go, Matthews is a step below the "once-in-a-generation" pantheon of guys like Crosby and McDavid, and he doesn't yet have the defensive game to be a true two-way threat. Think something more along the lines of the John Tavares/Mike Modano/Mats Sundin level. That's still pretty good.

Superstar odds: 85%. Honestly, based on everything we've seen so far, this should probably be closer to 90 or 95 percent. But we have to work in at least a small penalty because he wound up with the Maple Leafs, and nothing nice ever happens to them. Every Toronto fan is nodding sadly right now.