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Marcus Mariota Hasn't Made the Leap Just Yet

After torching the Packers, Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota fell back to Earth a bit in Indianapolis in Week 11. Let's look at just how much he has improved in Year 2.
Photo by Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Every week of every season, NFL writers and media pundits follow a familiar script: They take the most impressive or unexpected performance from an individual player, say "Wow," and then decide that this player, regardless of actual level, has taken "the leap" up in NFL ranks.

Two weeks ago, for instance, Marcus Mariota torched the Green Bay Packers, leading many observers to put the Tennessee Titans' second-year quarterback in their "rising" column. He threw 19-of-26, including four touchdown passes—and if there's one thing that NFL writers appreciate, it's the long touchdown pass. They're the clickbait headline of the NFL: "This One Trick Will Make Your Quarterback Look Like a Genius," never mind the confluence of factors that have to come together for the play to actually succeed.

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Read More: Missed Extra Points and Going for Two: Week 11 of Dumb Football With Mike Tunison

Mariota fell back to Earth a bit in Indianapolis in Week 11 as the Titans failed to seize control of the AFC South against the Colts. We won't be playing highlight packages of Mariota while talking about how he's climbed into the best five quarterbacks in the league this week, but that's OK. Instead, let's evaluate with a sober mind: How good has Marcus Mariota become?

At first glance, Mariota's numbers look great. He's first in the AFC in touchdown passes, and sixth overall in quarterback rating. The last six games saw him complete 67.6 percent of his passes, with an average of 8.86 yards per attempt.

Part of this is because of improvement around him, specifically at the offensive line and running back positions after new GM Jon Robinson drafted first-round right tackle Jack Conklin and brought in DeMarco Murray this off-season. Receivers Kendall Wright and Rishard Matthews have helped his output over the last six games, too.

Tennessee's offense, when working as intended, give Mariota plenty of time to throw. Photo by Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Head coach Mike Mularkey's Exotic Smashmouth offense is a major throwback to the days when Run to Win was a real NFL ideal. It's a dated concept in today's more pass-friendly league, but it's easy for a quarterback in a run-first offense to look good when the run is the primary consideration for opponents.

And when the Titans are able to run Exotic Smashmouth as intended, it's glorious. Trick plays are flying. Mariota has all day to throw and is spoiled for choice. The Titans have been able to do this against the Browns, Dolphins, Packers, and Jaguars—but so has everyone else. Those four teams, over their last 20 games, have combined to go 24-56.

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My major hang-up with Mariota on a statistical level is how much the Tennessee offense struggles when trailing opponents. When Mariota is forced to make third-and-eight throws, it's not coming quite as easily as when the Titans are creating third-and-short or Mariota is isolating tight end Delanie Walker against a linebacker.

You can see this with Tennessee's game scripts—a measure created by Chase Stuart of Football Perspective, of the average lead a team has over the course of all 3,600 seconds in each game. The Titans have played four games in which they have had a positive game script, meaning that they had control of the ball with the lead more often than not. They've played in seven where that hasn't been the case. Here are the results:

Game Scripts and the Titans Offense

Scenario

W-L

Pass Offense DVOA

< 0.0

1-6

2.6%*

> 0.0

4-0

101.2%

* Does not include Week 11

When the opposing defense shows some teeth early in games and the Titans fall behind on the scoreboard, they become an average pass offense. Asked to make more difficult throws, Mariota's touchdown-to-interception ratio is a more subdued 11:7 in negative game scripts, as opposed to 12:1 in positive situations—and that includes games against downright bad pass defenses like Indianapolis and Detroit.

Accuracy issues are a big part of why Bleacher Report's Cian Fahey, an objective observer of quarterback play, rated Mariota as the 19th-best quarterback at midseason. He airmailed enough passes to wind up right next to Jay Cutler on Fahey's list.

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A quarterback with Mariota's speed and physical talent should be ducking rushers and putting pressure on the defense all the time. The snap below is an example of awesome individual quarterback play.

But Mariota otherwise had a rough time under pressure against the Colts on Sunday, and that happens far too often. He's the anti-Blake Bortles. Bortles is terrible in the actual structure of an offense, and his best plays all come when he's improvising on the go. Mariota, on the other hand, can make playing quarterback look almost robotically cool at times, but when the script goes against him, he's not quite as good as his tools would lead you to believe. He acts a little more frenetic than you'd prefer, at times stepping up into a rusher, or trying to get rid of the ball in a way that begs for a turnover.

Another issue Mariota has is hitting deeper sideline throws. Watch how, near the end of Sunday's game against the Colts, he sails this comeback route just a little too high for his receiver:

To be fair, this is one of the tougher throws for any NFL quarterback to make. But if he sticks it in there like he would a slant, or a crossing route, the Titans are in business at the end of the game. Instead, they were a running offense facing third-and-nine—not an ideal place to be.

That the Titans almost were able to overcome a 21-0 deficit against the division rival Colts on Sunday sounds impressive, but in truth, Mariota had some issues in a game that Indianapolis was dying to give away. The Titans quarterback has improved in his second NFL season, and so have other aspects of the offense. But I need to see more from Mariota before I'm ready to say he's taken the leap.

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