A Wizard Researcher Made a Climate Model of Middle Earth

A wizard-turned-climate-researcher has used supercomputer modelling techniques to produce a climate map of JRR Tolkien’s Middle Earth.

The paper, undoubtedly the first of its kind, was authored by the wizard Radagast the Brown, though for some reason news sources are attributing it instead to environmental scientist Dan Lunt at the University of Bristol. In addition to modelling Middle Earth, the study mapped modern Earth and “Dinosaur Earth” (the earth about 65 million years ago) for the sake of comparison. The point, after all, wasn't just to satisfy the curiosity of fanboys and girls everywhere, but to demonstrate just how flexible climate modelling techniques can be.

Perhaps of most interest are the comparisons between Middle Earth and Modern Earth regions. The paper found that the idyllic hobbit-land of the Shire is closest in climate to eastern Europe, particularly Belarus. The British regions of Lincolnshire and Leicestershire are also quite similar, and New Zealand, where the Lord of the Rings movies were filmed, isn't far off. Los Angeles and Texas, however, come closest to Mordor—the fiery, black-gated home of the evil Sauron.

To model Middle Earth, the researchers relied on Tolkien’s own detailed maps of the fantastical landscape. “All the spatially varying boundary conditions are derived from maps and manuscripts from the extensive archives in Rivendell,” they wrote. But reproducing the drawings, they conceded, took a lot of effort and might not have quite met their usual scientific standards of accuracy:  “Time constraints meant that this was not carried out as fastidiously as was perhaps required (and I had misplaced my spectacles that day…). In addition, there is a degree of uncertainty in the mapping of the original maps onto a spherical world.”

Middle Earth is flat, you see.

These then got crunched in the University of Bristol’s supercomputers to build a 70-year climate simulation of the fantastical world. The university made sure to clarify that the work wasn’t funded in any way, and was conducted in the researchers’ spare time.

The results show that Middle Earth, when mapped onto a globe, has a strikingly similar climate to our own planet. Northerly regions like the Kingdon of Forodwaith have an average temperature below freezing, while southern regions like Haradwaith (“where the stars are strange,” according to Aragorn) are around 30 degrees Celcius (86 Farenheit). And as expected, temperatures drop with increased altitude over the Misty Mountains, and are cooler in places further away from the ocean’s edge.

Aside from deserts in the South—and not taking into account the work of orcs, wizards, dragons, and so on—it appears most of Middle Earth is covered in forests. “This is consistent with reports I have heard from Elrond that squirrels could once travel from the region of the Shire all the way to Isengard,” Lunt Radagast wrote. Isn’t it great when scientific research supports anecdotal evidence?

The paper draws some conclusions from the climate data to illuminate some of the unexplained mysteries of Middle Earth’s history. For example, the authors suggested that the reason ships heading in the direction of the Undying Lands used to set off from the Grey Havens was to get the benefit of the regional winds in that area. It's a question we were all asking.

The paper was obviously written in the interests of pure geeky fun, but Lunt explained it also helps show how climate models can be used in real life:

A core part of our work here in Bristol involves using state-of-the-art climate models to simulate and understand the past climate of our Earth. By comparing our results to evidence of past climate change, for example from tree rings, ice cores, and ancient fossils of plants and animals, we can validate the climate models, and gain confidence in the accuracy of their predictions of future climate.

If you’re left in any doubt of Lunt’s commitment to Middle Earth authenticity, you can also check out the paper in Elvish and whatever language dwarves speak.