Donald Trump and Brexit: Two Bad Things about 2016. Photo of Trump by Gage Skidmore/background photo via Oast House Archive.
Annons
Annons
Johan Norberg: Well, like everyone, I get worried and scared when I read the news – apparently the world is populated by serial murderers, terrorists, warmongers and environmental polluters. So, as a kind of a corrective, I had to look at history and statistics and data, to see what is really happening. Are things really getting worse, or is it that we're now paying attention? That narrative can become self-reinforcing and self-fulfilling; if people think the world is crazy, they will turn to demagogues who say, "We can keep you safe… in exchange for you liberties." The Trumps, the Marine le Pens, they have a strong agenda to trigger people's fight or flight instincts. In the surveys, you can see the common denominator for those who voted for Brexit was that they were gloomy and thought things were going in the wrong direction.
Annons
The poverty statistics over the last few decades are some of the most wonderful news the world has ever seen. We've reduced extreme poverty from 37 percent to less than 10 percent in 25 years. Every minute that we are speaking, another 100 people rise out of extreme poverty. And this tells you something about how powerful this development is. The fact that we've increased life expectancy so much – almost entirely removing early death from the equation – is incredibly powerful. The chance of someone born today reaching retirement age is greater than the chance of anyone throughout history reaching their fifth birthday.Even sub-Saharan African countries that are a bit behind on health and development are now showing dramatic progress. In Kenya, over one decade, they increased life expectancy by ten years. That meant that people aged ten years, but were actually further from death than they were at the start. That is monumental. Of course there are still major problems, but for the first time in history they are the exception rather than the rule.
Well, I believe in liberalisation and free trade, so it does fit my political prejudices. But it's important to say that while 1990 saw an acceleration, this is really a 200-year story. For about 5,000 years of human development nothing really happens, then there's an explosion. The acceleration in 1990 is impressive because the development that took the western world 180 years is being replicated in the developing world in 25. This has a lot to do with the fall of wars, the fall of communism, the fall of dictatorships in Latin America and the opening up of the Chinese and Indian economies. The world began to reduce obstacles to trade, but also to communication, information and technology. More people were liberated and educated in those countries, so they could put their knowledge and creativity at the disposal of the world. Up until the 1970s, 90 percent of the Chinese population lived in extreme poverty, the worst statistics you could have at the time – then what you had is this amazing growth. In terms of brute numbers, it's China and India and places like that that explain how a billion people were lifted out of poverty in such a short time.
Annons
There is definitely an argument that the baby boomers made things quite convenient for themselves, and in some ways this generation is not as lucky when it comes to things like pensions, where public money ends up, housing policy and so on. And those are problems that we need to deal with in the political debate. But that mustn't blind us to the economic, social and technological progress that the present generation is experiencing to a larger degree than any other in history. Simply in terms of medicine and life expectancy – dealing with infant mortality, cardiovascular disease and making progress against cancer, but also cell regeneration and biotechnology – this generation will live longer and better than any in history.Then there's technology – communication and the internet. In their parents' generation, for someone from a poor background who wanted to learn, just to find the books was a struggle. Families would save for months to buy an encyclopaedia – now it's all free. In that way, this will be the happiest and luckiest generation ever.Another narrative is that we live in an age of rising economic inequality.
In a way we do; since the 1980s in Europe and the US, inequality has increased. If 2 billion people from the developing world are suddenly able to put their brains and hard work into the market, then it's more difficult to work in the same type of businesses and factories. On the other hand, this process has also meant a reduction in price in almost everything – it's cheaper than ever before to get your life's needs met.
Annons
This is where some of the greatest challenges remain, particularly in terms of issues like global warming and the health of the oceans. But when you look at the environmental damage that immediately affects people's health, we've actually made enormous accomplishments in a very short time. Even in the late 1970s we just didn't care much about the environment. But then wealth and knowledge increased and things improved. In Britain, for instance, the six leading pollutants have been reduced by 60 percent. The air is cleaner, rivers are cleaner – in the west, forests are growing back, and the rate of decline is slowing in emerging markets like China and India. We've reduced the number oil spills in the ocean by 99 percent.
Annons
I think our evolutionary pre-history is part of it. We're a problem solving species – but that means we look for problems and risks constantly. And now we have global media 24/7, and social media, so all risks and threats are reported. The new phenomenon in the world is not human suffering; it's that everyone has a cellphone so they can document it, and send it around the world. It becomes a self-fulfilling narrative.And we know from psychology how difficult it is to change people's opinions and perceptions. If they've already decided that everything is out of control, they say, "Look, I can see there's a military coup going on in Turkey – I can see the pictures on Twitter right now." Then you tell them, "Yeah, but when you were growing up in the 1960s there were about 15 military coups a year. That declined to about four per year in the early 21st century, and in 2016 we've had one… and it failed!" But strangely, in psychology, often when you show people contradictory data and statistics, it can sometimes actually serve to reinforce their prejudices.
Annons
This is where I am not a chronic optimist, as some people expect me to be. I have tremendous hope and belief in mankind's ability to produce and accumulate knowledge and creativity, but am almost as pessimistic about what happens when mankind gains power over other people, particularly with governmental efforts to block certain technologies and put up barriers to trade and education. The rise of populism in the west, which plays on anxiety and nostalgia – and the lack of understanding of the progress we have made – I think could wreak havoc. It is a threat to the openness that all this is dependent on. There could also be external shocks, such as geopolitical issues with Russia or China, or another financial crisis. We are building up problems in the financial sector right now.These wouldn't necessarily stop progress – in the 20th century we dealt with protectionism, the Great Depression and two World Wars, and still more than doubled life expectancy and reduced poverty more than ever before. But if we began to dismantle our openness, then we would definitely impede the pace of progress.Progress is available now.More on VICE:The Man Whose Job It Is to Constantly Imagine the Total Collapse of Humanity in Order to Save ItI Drank Beer in the Future Thanks to Virtual RealityWhat's the Future of Your Job?