Galtung has also accurately predicted the 1978 Iranian revolution; the Tiananmen Square uprising of 1989 in China; the economic crises of 1987, 2008 and 2011; and even the 9/11 attacks—among other events, according to the late Dietrich Fischer, academic director of the European University Center for Peace Studies.Back in 2000, Galtung first set out his prediction that the "US empire" would collapse within 25 years. After the election of President Bush, though, he revised that forecast five years forward because, he argued, Bush's policies of extreme militarism would be an accelerant.After the election of Trump, I thought it might be prudent to check in with Galtung to see how he was feeling about the status of his US forecast. Galtung told Motherboard that Trump would probably continue this trajectory of accelerated decline—and may even make it happen quicker. Of course, with typical scientific caution, he said he would prefer to see what Trump's actual policies are before voicing a clear verdict.The modelGaltung has doctoral degrees in both sociology and mathematics, and some decades ago developed a theory of "synchronizing and mutually reinforcing contradictions", which he used to make his forecasts. The model was based on comparing the rise and fall of 10 historical empires.Back in 2000, Galtung first set out his prediction that the "US empire" would collapse within 25 years.
In the case of the USSR, the main structural contradictions were as follows: the working class was increasingly repressed and unable to self-organise through trade unions (ironic given the country's Communist pretensions); the wealthier 'bourgeoisie' or elite had money to spend, but nothing to buy from domestic production, leading to economic stagnation; Russian intellectuals wanted more freedom of expression; minorities wanted more autonomy; and peasants wanted more freedom of movementThe model works like this: the more those contradictions deepen, the greater the likelihood they will result in a social crisis that could upend the existing order.The model works like this: the more those contradictions deepen, the greater the likelihood they will result in a social crisis that could upend the existing order.
All of which, Galtung said, surfaced during the Bush era, and which now appear to have come to fruition through Trump. Such fascism, he told Motherboard, is a symptom of the decline—lashing out in disbelief at the loss of power.Galtung warned that during this phase of decline, the US was likely to go through a phase of reactionary "fascism".
economic contradictions such as 'overproduction relative to demand', unemployment and the increasing costs of climate change;
military contradictions including rising tensions between the US, NATO, and its military allies, along with the increasing economic unsustainability of war;
political contradictions including the conflicting roles of the US, UN and EU;
cultural contradictions including tensions between US Judeo-Christianity, Islam, and other minorities;
and social contradictions encompassing the increasing gulf between the so-called 'American Dream', the belief that everyone can prosper in America through hard work, and the reality of American life (the fact that more and more people can't).
For Galtung, Trump's incoherent policy proposals are evidence of the deeper structural decline of US power: "He [Trump] blunts contradictions with Russia, possibly with China, and seems to do also with North Korea. But he sharpens contradictions inside the USA", such as in relation to minority rights.On the one hand, Galtung said, Trump might well offer an opportunity to avoid potential conflicts with great power rivals like Russia and China—on the other, he may still, stupidly, fight more unilateral wars and worsen domestic contradictions relating to minorities.Motherboard asked Galtung whether he thinks Trump would speed up his forecast of "collapse", or slow it down.Even if we give Trump the benefit of the doubt, he said, and assume that he "prefers solving underlying conflicts, particularly with Russia, to war—in other words for the US not be imperial—then yes, that still speeds up the decline from above, and from the center… Of course, what he does as a President remains to be seen."But what exactly is collapsing?"An empire is more than violence around the world," said Galtung. "It is a cross-border structure with a center, the imperial country, and a periphery, the client countries. The point about imperialism is to make the elites in the periphery do the jobs for the center."On the one hand, Trump might well offer an opportunity to avoid potential conflicts with great power rivals like Russia and China—on the other, he may still, stupidly, fight more unilateral wars and worsen domestic contradictions relating to minorities.
Galtung is not pessimistic about his forecasts, though. Having always seen the collapse of the "US empire" as inevitable—much like the collapse of the Soviet empire—he argues that there is real opportunity for a revitalization of the "American republic."The American republic is characterised by its dynamism, its support for the ideals of freedom and liberty, its productivity and creativity, and its cosmopolitanism toward the 'other.'Might Trump help revitalize the American republic?Galtung's answer is, perhaps, revealing: "If he manages to apologize deeply to all the groups he has insulted. And turn foreign policy from US interventions—soon 250 after Jefferson in Libya 1801—and not use wars (killing more than 20 million in 37 countries after 1945): A major revitalization! Certainly making 'America Great Again'. We'll see."That's a big if.Get six of our favorite Motherboard stories every day by signing up for our newsletter.Galtung warned that the decline of American power on the world stage would probably have a domestic impact that would undermine the internal cohesion of the United States.