Post-Brexit Byelection Round-Up: The Context Is More Important than the Results

The results are in for two byelections held on Thursday. The Tories retained Witney, which was left without an MP after David Cameron quit in Brexit shame. Meanwhile Labour won in Batley and Spen in a largely uncontested byelection that happened because Labour MP Jo Cox was shot and stabbed to death by a man shouting "put Britain first" in June. Both are probably more significant for the reasons they took place at all, than any political meaning psephologists and pollsters would usually be trying to eek out of every percentage point.

When David Cameron resigned as Prime Minister, he left a lot of things behind: a country going through a profound crisis, a legacy of failure and Larry the Downing Street cat. But spare a thought for the people of Witney, who he abandoned as local MP a couple of months later.

Tory MP Robert Courts was elected in his place yesterday. His majority in the Conservative safe seat was significantly lower than Cameron's, with vote share falling from 60 percent in 2015 to 45 percent.

The Lib Dem candidate Liz Leffman overtook Labour for second place with a 23 percent increase in vote share from last year. She said that coming second was a "terrific accolade" and that the Tories were "rattled" by the result in a campaign dominated by discussion of Brexit: "This is a real shot across the bows and sends the message that people in West Oxfordshire are not happy with the direction that [May] is taking." You have to wonder if Brexit fallout is just the tonic the beleaguered Lib Dems need to make people trust them again.

Both Theresa May and Cameron popped to Witney to help Courts's campaign. In his victory speech, Courts optimistically called David Cameron "a great Prime Minister and a brilliant MP". Cameron returned the favour with a congratulatory with a tweet, in a beautiful Tory love-in. After his speech, Courts abruptly leaving the count without speaking to any press. Party colleagues insist that this is totally fine and normal. Perhaps the future of Westminster journalism is reproducing politicians' social media circle-jerks and hoping that they might be kind enough to actually talk to you.

When they can be arsed to spin journalists a line, Conservatives are saying they're happy about the win, despite the obvious fall in popularity in what is the first public vote since the referendum. Brandon Lewis the Home Secretary told the BBC that "you have to really look at what David Cameron got… when he first stood, which was 45 percent."

In Batley and Spen, Labour candidate Tracy Brabin was elected to the seat that used to be occupied by her friend Jo Cox, who died after being shot and stabbed multiple times in June. She received 85 percent of the vote at a 26 percent turnout, and was uncontested by other major parties because of the tragic circumstances that necessitated the election.

True to form, the BNP and National Front did not respectfully abstain from standing. Stay classy, guys! On the plus side, they received such low votes that they lost their £500 deposits. Cox's bereaved husband tweeted his congratulations to Brabin and said that it is "great to see all the purveyors of hate lose their deposits #MoreInCommon".

Brabin called the victory a win for "unity and hope" in her victory speech but said that for her, it was a "bittersweet occasion". She spoke over heckles that ranged from "it's called democracy love" to the single phrase "Coronation Street". Brabin was indeed in Corrie in the 90s.

Apparently it was Cox herself who first suggested to her friend Brabin that she run for Parliament when they were door-knocking together in 2015. "The irony is horrid, isn't it?" Brabin said in an interview with the Guardian last month.

One MP left the political stage in shame, the other's life was cut short in tragedy. Both of these byelections are likely to be remembered in the context of the person who vacated the seat rather than the one who filled the void.

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