Dispatch from Cairo: Navigating the Egyptian Elections

To an outsider, Egypt’s hastily organised elections looked like anarchy. Campaign violations were rife, with Egypt's National Human Rights Council receiving more than 1,000 complaints. Salafist fatwas posted at some polling stations kindly reminded voters that it would be sacrilegious to not vote for their party, and poll workers failed to verify the identities of many veiled women, leaving open the possibility that they were in fact multi-voting men in drag. Dozens were injured when various parties blasted their theme songs into polling places where thousands clambered to vote, while campaign propaganda was distributed right up to the ballot box. Shortly after voting ended, rumours began to circulate about attacks on polling stations by mobs that trapped judges, poll workers, and ballot boxes inside. Then, groups of thugs heaved petrol bombs at the protesters still camped out in Tahrir Square. Many were injured in the ensuing fight, and a makeshift clinic has been set up for the wounded. Twitter is already abuzz with conspiracy theories about who was behind the attack.

But Egypt is a crazy place, and to most Egyptians the elections were a rousing success. The military says up to 70 percent of the population has voted, and military leaders in the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces feel buoyed by these numbers. But the real winners are Egypt's most powerful and organised party, the Muslim Brotherhood, who claim they will win up to 50 percent of the vote.

Earlier this evening, at a dilapidated school a few blocks from Tahrir Square, smartly dressed businessmen, burkha-clad women, and jean-wearing students scanned through dozens of possible choices on impossibly complicated voting sheets before marking an “X”. A mark that will actually be counted for the first time in their lives.

A few days earlier, this neighbourhood was on fire. The military and police were cracking down on the revolutionaries, who were hoping their chants for democracy would bring down the military in much the same way they brought down a powerful dictator. They made a powerful point, and pushed the Supreme Council to pledge for presidential elections by June.

Yet as Egypt’s radicals and military fought it out on the streets, the Muslim Brotherhood continued to focus on the long term – winning these elections, writing the constitution, destroying Israel’s hold over Palestine and taking over the world.

On Friday, as Tahrir was holding a last chance march, the Muslim Brotherhood held a rally against Israel at Al Azhar, one of Cairo’s 1,000-year-old mosques. Leaders of Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood spoke at the rally, which involved lots of chants against Israel. It seemed bizarre to do this at such a critical time, and the protesters in Tahrir said the rally reeked of political hypocrisy. But it also highlights the fact that the Muslim Brotherhood are not confined to Egypt’s borders – they had success at the Tunisian and Moroccan voting booths this autumn.

The Brotherhood haven’t always been peaceful advocates for democracy, however. In the 50s and 60s they were responsible for numerous bombings and assassinations. In the following years, they disavowed violence and have stuck with it. They became involved in Egyptian politics and created a second state of social services to care for the Egyptians neglected by Mubarak.

In the new Middle East, peaceful protest has achieved more in the last 12 months than decades of armed struggle, and the Muslim Brotherhood’s passion for politics is perfectly positioned to take advantage of this new strategy. The Brotherhood are expected to win around 30 percent of the vote in the parliamentary election, with other Islamic parties fighting the liberals for the leftovers.

Although the revolutionaries of Tahrir won freedom for Egypt, their appearance is quite different from that of other Egyptians. An hour south of Tahrir, in the bustling wastelands of Halwan, massive cement factories and endless towns of unfinished five-storey brick buildings compete for space in the desert dust. When I arrived at a polling station in a tall public school, 100 men and women were lined up separately waiting to vote, pushing up against soldiers and police to get inside. Nearly every woman was covered, and most wore full veils. The Salafist Mohammad-style beard was also extremely popular. Mohammad, a Muslim Brotherhood organiser who showed me around, said that here in his village most of the poor vote for the fundamentalist Salafist parties, while people in more educated places vote for the Muslim Brotherhood. As if on cue, a Salafist lunged from the line to explain to me that 1) he hates America, 2) he hates America a lot, 3) he hopes America dies, and 4) he can’t understand why America supports something as awful as Israel. As Mohammed pulled me away I realised how moderate the Brotherhood are, and how religious this country will likely become if it turns into a true democracy.

If the Brotherhood start governing Egypt, they're not going to create policies that align with our Western ideas of human rights, gender issues and bank interests. It is not going to be a Turkey, but it’s also not going to be the Taliban. This is one of the first times in history that Muslims have been given a free and legitimate democratic power to govern, and it’s about time they had it. They can’t do much worse than Mubarak.

More from Cairo:

Are the Illuminati Behind the Protests in Tahrir Square?

Is Egypt on the Verge of a Second Revolution?