Pekka Rinne Will Make or Break the Predators' Stanley Cup Final

When the Stanley Cup Final shifted to Nashville with the Predators already down 0-2, there was one obvious question, the answer to which would dictate the direction of the series:

What Will Pekka Rinne Do?

Now that the Predators have evened the best-of-seven series with the Penguins, and with Game 5 set for Pittsburgh on Thursday night, there is, again, one obvious question:

What Will Pekka Rinne Do?

Nashville's goaltender was an abomination in Games 1 and 2, and his performance is the main reason the Penguins aren't coming home in a 3-1 hole or watching as the bleary-eyed Predators drink from the Stanley Cup on Broadway already. He allowed more soft rubber past him than a quality control guy at a condom factory.

Now the series is tied, not because Rinne rescued the Predators but because Rinne did his job. He didn't steal any games, but he didn't cost the Predators any games, either. He made a few difficult saves in Game 4, yes, but it's not as if the Predators weren't playing well enough in front of him to score a third or fourth goal if necessary.

The first four games have proved that all the Predators need is a goaltender who won't get in the way of winning but will get in the way of all the stoppable shots.

So, yeah, what will Pekka Rinne do in Game 5?

The Predators did a lot of things better in Nashville than they did in Pittsburgh, namely not giving the Penguins an endless stream of power plays. After facing ten power plays in Games 1 and 2, the Predators were shorthanded a total of five times in Games 3 and 4. They were more disciplined, and the Penguins didn't capitalize on opportunities to dive like they had in Pittsburgh.

Then again, maybe the Predators were taking penalties but referees weren't using the same standard to call them. Did anyone else see Harry Zolnierczyk run Olli Maatta from behind in the first period? That's boarding in just about any hockey league on the planet, but it wasn't on that play because, well, who knows.

It also helped that the Predators were finishing their grade-A chances. Instead of James Neal hitting a crossbar in Game 1, Frederick Gaudreau was picking corners and stashing pucks on wraparounds, Viktor Arvidsson was scoring on breakaways, and Roman Josi was getting shots past Matt Murray.

None of that matters, or even happens, if Rinne reverts to his previous form of the first two games.

We've seen this before. Roberto Luongo found himself in a similar situation with the Vancouver Canucks in the 2011 Stanley Cup Final: tremendous at home, a tragedy of epic proportions on the road.

Like Rinne with the Penguins in Nashville, Luongo held the opposing Boston Bruins to two goals in Vancouver. And where Rinne has allowed eight goals, a few of them soft, in his two away games so far (one of which he was pulled from), Luongo allowed eight goals in a single game on the road. Eight! Man, eight goals! Good lord did he crumble in Boston during that series. He was also pulled in one of the first two road games, but it wasn't even the eight-goal one. What was coach Alain Vigneault doing in that series? Goodness.

When Luongo had to go back to Boston for Game 6 after his two brutal showings in Games 3 and 4, he allowed three goals on eight shots and was yanked after nine minutes. The Bruins won Game 6, and then returned to Vancouver and won Game 7.

There are some differences between the two series—the Canucks had home-ice advantage in 2011, and Predators do not, for example—but the illustrative example of how a goaltender can murder his own team away from home remains.

And there's still reason to be nervous about Rinne. Yes, he stopped 50 of 52 shots in Nashville, including breakaways from Sidney Crosby and Chris Kunitz, but he also took a harmless shot from someone named Josh Archibald and nearly knocked it into his own net in the third period of Game 4. There are times when every goaltender won't know where a puck is after it hits him, but it seems to be happening to Rinne a lot in the Final.

The Penguins don't need a high volume of chances to get their goals, so Rinne can't give them any freebies. And with Pittsburgh coach Mike Sullivan having the last change at home, he may be able to create more scoring chances for a team that has had to scrap for them throughout the series.

Rinne did amazing work in the first three rounds of the playoffs, but now it's time for him to Trent Dilfer his team to a championship. All he needs to do is make one or two plays, nothing fancy—just avoid any gigantic screw-up that will destroy his team.

Nashville is plenty good enough to run over a clearly exhausted Penguins team with a decimated blue line. As long as Rinne doesn't pull a Luongo in Pittsburgh, the Predators should have this series.

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