Under-21 Failure Suggests More International Hurt For England

England's failure to reach the knockout stages of the Under-21 European Championships for a third time in succession bodes badly for the future of the senior national team.

You could argue that it's just a youth tournament; that success at this stage isn't a reflection on where the senior side will be in five or 10 years. The fact that Gareth Southgate's team finished bottom of their group can be ignored so long as the seniors keep beating the likes of Slovenia and Estonia.

But in recent years, the Under-21 Euros have been pretty good at pointing towards which country is heading for success.

Take the 2009 final. England were there, or at least their name was in the programme and their players could be found somewhere on the pitch. In reality the game was played exclusively by Germany, who dispatched England 4-0 in Malmo. Their starting 11 that day contained the likes of Neuer, Boateng, Hummels, Khedira and Ozil. You know who they are; I don't even need to use their first names.

It was the foundation for Germany's success five years later, when these players joined an established core and won the World Cup in Brazil. Four of those five started the final against Argentina, while Khedira only missed the match after suffering an injury in the warm up.

The England 11 they faced had a couple of standout players — James Milner and Theo Walcott — but it also featured a few who, six years on, play in League 1. England's goalkeeper was Scott Loach, who turned out for League 2 Bury on loan last term. As comparisons with Neuer go, that's pretty stark.

The Spanish side that won two years later had David de Gea in goal, as well as his Manchester United team-mates Juan Mata and Ander Herrera, and the current Bayern Munich duo Thiago Alcântara and Javi Martinez. Spain retained the title in 2013 with De Gea still in goal and an outfield contingent that included Alcántara, Koke (Atlético Madrid), Isco (Real Madrid) and Álvaro Morata (who scored in the Champions League semi-final and final for Juventus).

Despite their nightmare 2014 World Cup, it's easy to see how Spain will challenge for the biggest prize in football again in 2018. In fact, it's hard to see how they won't. With this group already assimilating into the senior squad, they have a core of players who have experienced victory together. Given how short and intense major tournaments are, with three games in a week, this sort of experience is invaluable. You will see it in Spain at the 2018 World Cup; England won't have it.

It also bears mentioning that almost all of the Spanish and German players mentioned are now regular starters at Champions League clubs. From England's 2009 squad, only Joe Hart — who was suspended for the final — is now a Champions League regular. Theo Walcott may be, depending on form and injuries, while Kieran Gibbs will play more of a supporting role. There are far more now playing in the Championship.

And how many of England's 2015 crop are likely to play in Europe's premier club competition in the next few years? Perhaps Harry Kane, maybe Ruben Loftus-Cheek or John Stones. But a lot of this squad are 21 or 22 and turning out in the Championship. England's first choice goalkeeper played only nine league games this season, most of them while on loan in the second tier. By comparison, Germany's Bernd Leno was Bayer Leverkusen's first choice as the club secured Champions League football.

It may sound a little hypocritical to bang on about the Champions League as if it is the only football that matters — many believe that this attitude is what sees the Under-21s relegated to a nuisance in the minds of top players. But, unavoidably, this is the level players need to be at if they are to succeed — and really succeed, rather than just get along — at international level.

In England's defence, they can point to several absences. West Brom's Saido Berahino, their top scorer in qualifying, suffered an injury in the final training session that ruled him out of the tournament. The likes of Raheem Sterling, Ross Barkley and Luke Shaw were never likely to play. Tom Ince said he would not accept another Under-21 call-up in March. Tom Ince, who plays for Derby County in the Championship.

Ince would not have been the answer, but his refusal to play is seen as part of the problem. In reaction to England's exit, Mark Lawrenson opined that they "would win [the tournament] with the top players by miles. They seriously would. Those players in midfield or up front would have won this competition very, very easily."

Lawrenson was perhaps over-estimating the quality of England's players — another problem English football suffers from — but having Barkley or Sterling in the team would certainly have helped. Portugal had William Carvalho in their squad, the same William Carvalho who has 13 senior caps and played at last summer's World Cup. De Gea turned up in 2013 when he was Man United's established number one. Alcántara scored a hat-trick in the 2013 final after a season in which he played regularly in a title-winning Barcelona side.

With all that in mind, it's not unfair to ask why Sterling — who had an in-season holiday this year — couldn't take a few weeks away from his protracted transfer saga to play for England. It makes Harry Kane look even more like an idealised young footballer from a 1950s comic strip.

But for all the talk of adding in established players, the Italian squad that comfortably beat England 3-1 last night featured precisely zero full internationals. So perhaps — 20-odd years into a Premier League era that has seen an increasing number of English players squeezed into the Championship — England just aren't very good. And perhaps we're going to see that bear out at the next few major tournaments.