There's Always Next Year: Washington

Of all the unlikely playoff teams of 2015, Washington was the longest shot before the season: they were given just a 5.8 win projection in Football Outsiders' preseason analysis, and a look at their roster made Maybe Six Wins seem an exceptionally reasonable assessment. So, outside of Kirk Cousins, what went right? Part of it was just being in right division at the right time. Preseason favorite Dallas collapsed without Tony Romo, the Eagles weren't able to overcome Chip Kelly's personnel choices, and the Giants had no non-Odell Beckham Jr. receivers and an awful defense. That all helped.

But it was also a year of pleasant surprises in Washington. Tight end Jordan Reed was finally able to stay healthy and showed prototype skills for a move player. The offensive line came together, with tackle Morgan Moses and first-round guard Brandon Scherff developing into solid starters. And, as bad as the defense was, Ryan Kerrigan continued to wreak havoc. Rookie second-rounder Preston Smith was a formidable situational rusher right away, and Washington was able to generate pressure. That's a lot of things going a lot better than expected.

The question now is: Just how sustainable was this step forward?

Coach and Quarterback Confidence Rating: 5/10

Kirk Cousins had a phenomenal statistical season. He led the league in completion percentage. He finished sixth in DVOA, ahead of quarterbacks like Cam Newton and Philip Rivers. He also had a lot of help.

Washington's receiving corps was dynamite, and their offensive line gave Cousins a lot of time. Head coach Jay Gruden's system gave Cousins a lot of simple underneath reads. Cousins finished fifth in Cian Fahey's interceptable passes rankings, so he was also getting help from defenses and whatever force in the universe governs football luck. Cousins deserves another year—he's already proved he can buck the odds by being productive at all—but last season had an unmistakable Nick Foles vibe to it.

Gruden succeeded on offense last year. Long-term, I think his handling of Robert Griffin III situation is a warning sign that he may not be the best leader, but credit where it's due for his scheme working out as well as it did.

Key Offseason Decision: What's the best way to fix the back seven?

Washington has some interesting front-line pieces, and their edge rushers aren't bad, but the back of this defense has long been a stop for vets desperately trying to stay in the NFL—a last harbor for the wayward Brandon Meriweathers of the league. And it doesn't help Washington's reputation when guys like corner David Amerson suddenly find success as soon as they're away from Skins coaches.

In theory, there should be a few defensive backs worth chasing this year. Safety looks like an interesting position in free agency. Chiefs corner Sean Smith and Packers corner Casey Hayward could find themselves on the open market. Now, Washington would need to move around some salary cap space to make moves like that happen—especially since they will, as expected, slap the franchise tag on Kirk Cousins.

On the other hand, Washington could stay the course for the first time since Dan Snyder bought the team and let general manager Scot McCloughan keep drafting. That worked out well in 2015. There were just more holes to fill than picks to plug them with.

Major Free Agents: QB Kirk Cousins, DT Terrance Knighton, OLB Junior Galette, RB Alfred Morris, OL Josh LeRibeus

Cousins was franchise tagged on Tuesday's deadline. If I were Washington, I'd be letting teams interested in a quarterback know that he is available for the kinds of hauls that Kevin Kolb and Matt Cassel once got their teams. Absent that, the best move is simply to hold him and hope he keeps improving.

I'm told this is the final step in making it officially official. I am back with the Re… — Kirk Cousins (@KirkCousins8)March 3, 2016

Morris is a good 1980s running back playing in 2016. He has no business being on the field on third down, but could be a good fit as a sustaining back somewhere. Galette is a good pass rusher that should return on a one-year deal after Washington did some creative accounting on his contract. Knighton is a fine nose tackle who should draw interest somewhere.

LeRibeus has had an up-and-down career, but he played better toward the end of the season. I'm interested to see which version of him teams believe is the real deal.

Cap Situation: $13,513,372—24th in the NFL

Washington's big salary break is RGIII's $16 million coming off the books, although that deal will now be replaced by Cousins' tag. The other super easy restructure is safety Dashon Goldson, who isn't worth an $8 million cap figure. Washington does want to restructure his contract rather than release him.

Another possible savings point is at wide receiver. Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson both played well last season, but it's hard to carry a $19.45 million cap figure on two starting wideouts. I'd expect at least a signing bonus restructure to free up some space for this year.

Washington doesn't have a lot of current cap space, but they do have a lot of veterans making bank who could get cut if necessary. For the Washington front office, it's a better situation than you'd think at first blush—or at least it is compared to where you usually expect this team to be under Snyder. It was that kind of season.