There's Always Next Year: Indianapolis Colts

The Colts endured one of the most bizarre seasons we've ever endured from a team that was supposed to compete for a title. Andrew Luck got hurt and missed most of the year. When he did play, he was not the same quarterback—his deep passes weren't landing where they usually do—but the Colts, who from Day 1 have asked too much of their young franchise player, stubbornly refused to change how they operate to fit his current health.

Luck's injury allowed the world to inspect the rotted foundation that had been hiding in plain sight for some time. The Colts' most recent round of win-now moves—pretty much all moves by general manager Ryan Grigson—universally stunk. Andre Johnson left Houston after being told he'd catch 40 balls in that offense, signed on with Indianapolis and caught…41 balls. Guard Todd Herremans was benched by midseason, providing no help to an offensive line that's a few players short of good. Frank Gore played well on the whole, but fumble problems inside the 20 sapped a lot of the value out of his carries.

So at the end of the year, it was all but a given that head coach Chuck Pagano would fall on the sword for this team. He and Grigson barely spoke throughout the season. He was resigned to throwing out quotes about how Jim Irsay couldn't eat him and handing out motivational props to his charges. The most indelible images of this Colts year were a psychedelically botched fake punt and Pagano's "grit chips." It was not good.

And then the Colts punted, this time successfully. Pagano and Grigson kept their jobs, and everyone had a nice makeup session. It's a great story of overcoming the odds in interpersonal relationships. Of course, it does nothing to solve the real problems that were exposed by their collective failure this year, but whatever. It's not like Indianapolis can't make the playoffs next year with a healthy Luck in this awful division.

Coach and Quarterback Confidence Rating: 7/10

I have a lot of confidence in Luck to rebound. The injuries that he suffered—at least, the ones that we are aware of—were to his ribs and his kidney. While you never want to be flippant about the value of a kidney, these injuries shouldn't affect him in the long term. If they do, this rating will be much, much lower next season.

Pagano is another of the middling mass of coaches I'd classify as good leaders but poor strategists. Indy focuses on stopping the run, and as it is not 1983, that doesn't matter much. (There's also the part where I mention that every time they play New England they give up 200 rushing yards anyway.)

While Pagano isn't the problem in Indianapolis some would have you think, he's not the solution, either. He has surrounded himself with coaches who haven't done much to elevate the talent on the roster. I'm surprised Pagano wasn't fired, but more due to the circumstances—getting eight wins out of this roster without Luck, which Pagano somehow did, isn't a bad result.

And now, this:

The Colts really just snapped this. — NFLonCBS (@NFLonCBS)October 19, 2015

Key Offseason Decision: What direction does this offense take?

The Colts spent a first-round pick on wide receiver Phillip Dorsett. They have, on paper, a receiving corps that can stretch the field with their speed. When Luck was playing, however, these receivers tended to run routes that took a long time to get open, and it made the offense wildly inconsistent.

After offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton was unceremoniously let go, the Colts played ball control. Some of that was, of course, the result of the 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck coming in to relieve Luck. Short passes were the rule when the Colts weren't running, and the team didn't ask Hasselbeck to do anything that his arm couldn't handle. The offense was one-dimensional, but it was acceptable when Hasselbeck wasn't taking too many hits.

So, besides improving the offensive line, the Colts need to figure out how they want to move forward. Will they stick with new offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski's shorter passing game? Will they go back to chucking it around? How the Colts want to design their offense will have a big impact on their free-agent decisions.

Major Free Agents: CB Greg Toler, TE Dwayne Allen, TE Coby Fleener, ILB Jerrell Freeman, S Dwight Lowery

One of Grigson's first signings, Toler was only able to give the Colts three years of taking lumps. There's still a place for him in the NFL, but it's as a backup or role player at this point.

Allen and Fleener bring different skill sets to the table. Fleener is a low-efficiency, high-volume receiving option and Allen is a great blocker who has shown himself a red-zone threat. Allen, of course, has also often been hurt the past few years. He'd make a good fit for Chudzinski's offense, but my guess is that the Colts will focus on keeping Fleener, Luck's Stanford teammate and good friend, instead.

Freeman is the only Indianapolis linebacker who can cover, so keeping him should also be a priority. At 30, and with a down 2014 firmly in the rearview, his contract negotiations might be interesting. Will the Colts suck it up and give him real money?

Cap Situation: $24,994,614—17th in the NFL

This number looks small, but the Colts will again have a tremendous amount of payroll flexibility. Luck's $16.1 million cap number is a likely candidate to get reduced when the Colts officially give him the extension Irsay has been crowing about.

Megatron is not alone among iconic WRs pondering retirement. — Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet)February 24, 2016

After that, the Colts have a ton of replaceable veterans. Andre Johnson is likely to retire or be released, freeing up $5 million. Linebacker Trent Cole provided pressure but not many sacks in his first year in Indy. That's $6.1 million in potential savings. D'Qwell Jackson is still looking for his first good season for the Colts. That's another $5.2 million. Robert Mathis. Erik Walden. Darius Butler. The Colts have a ton of underperforming veterans who could be let go to clear up cap space if need be.

The question is: What will Indy do with all this money? If you hadn't noticed, Grigson's track record of spending it is bad—bad enough that I'd almost question whether it's worth releasing an average player to let Grigson have a shot at replacing him. The Colts don't have many settled positions. It's essentially QB, CB1, WR, LT, LG, and maybe an end spot if you believe Henry Anderson will return to full health. They have other solid players, but nobody else who feels like a long-term solution.

I'd expect the Colts to again be players in free agency, because there's no point in not spending the money. But I'm pessimistic about them getting good value for it.