What's Going On With the 212? A Deep Dive On the Drama Surrounding Saturday's Rally

Three numbers are on everyone's mind in the Indonesian capital: two-one-two. The figure represents the date (2 Dec.) hardline Islamists held a massive demonstration in the Indonesian capital last year calling for the arrest of then-governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, a Christian, on blasphemy charges. The rally, dubbed a "peace action," by its organizers, was widely seen a successful push by religious hardliners to oust the former governor by people on both sides of the argument.

Those who agreed with the rally call it a victory. Those who don't say it was a dangerous sign of sectarianism creeping into politics and a dark stain on Indonesia's reported commitment to religious tolerance and pluralism. The rally, and the ensuing election, left the city divided along racial and religious lines that, for many, still sting today.

Now, one year later, the city is preparing for another 212 rally that threatens to dredge up these feelings all over again. What's going on? We're going to do our best to explain what's shaping up to be a very confusing story.

The real controversy here isn't over the rally itself, it's over where it's supposed to take place. The original 212 took place on the grounds of the National Monument (Monas), a tower in the middle of Merdeka Square, that's typically off-limits for religious gatherings. But anywhere between 200,000 and 500,000 people showed up for the original 212 and the authorities had to let them into Monas Square to prevent any overcrowding of the streets surrounding the monument.

Now, the 212 organizers want to hold the anniversary rally at Monas Square, a request that would've been denied by the previous administration. But this time, it seems to be going ahead, a fact that has left many in the press wondering who gave the 212 crew the approval to hold a rally at Monas? And why was it approved in the first place?

Well, this is the question that dogged Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan all week. Here's how the drama played out: first the governor overturned a ban on religious activities at Monas, giving in to demands by Islamic fundamentalists that the ban discriminated against Muslims.

The country's largest Islamic organization, the Nahdlatul Ulama, criticized the move as an attempt to use religion for political gain, with the group's chairman saying that "religion used for the sake of politics is an insult to religion itself, an insult to the glory of religion."

But the ban was overturned regardless, opening the door to something like the 212 rally to occur again at Monas. A few days later, the head of the 212 organizers publicly thanked Anies for allowing the rally to take place at Monas, telling local media that “it’s good; that area is a symbol of Jakarta, anyone can use it. That means Pak Anies wants to build an area that belongs to everybody."

Once it seemed that Anies approved the rally himself, everyone wanted to know why. But Anies spent the next few days either dodging the question or passing the responsibility off on the police before eventually admitting today that he did indeed approve the rally.

Here's how the story played out:

14 Nov.
Anies decides to reverse the ban on religious activities at Monas, inspiring backlash from groups across the religious spectrum.

21 Nov.
The 212 crew thanks Anies for allowing the anniversary rally to take place at Monas.

27 Nov.
The leader of the Islamic Defenders Front (FPI) Habib Rizieq Shihab, a man wanted on pornography charges in Indonesia, will return from overseas to attend the rally, his lawyer tells the press. The police respond by sending officers to the airport to wait for his return. He never arrives.

28 Nov.
Anies tells reporters that the 212 rally is "not my business." His deputy governor Sandiaga Uno dodges the question and tells reporters to ask Anies directly, explaining that the governor will answer it "later."

29 Nov.
An official in charge of the Monas complex tells the press that Anies actually did approve the request, which was sent to his office more than a week ago. Reporters asked Anies again if he approved the rally, and the governor responded by shifting the responsibility to the police. "That's not my business. That's under the authority of the police," he told a reporter at Tempo.

30 Nov.
Anies admits that he indeed did approve the rally, back on the 24th of Nov. He says it was approved because it was in accordance with his new regulation allowing religious activities to take place at Monas.

The FPI is really at the center of this story. The hardline Islamist group were one of the key figures behind the anti-Ahok movement. They were one of the first groups to push for the blasphemy charge that eventually landed Ahok behind bars, and their role in the rallies moved the organization closer to the center of power than ever before. The head of the Gerinda Party, former presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto, thanked the FPI by name in a victory speech the night of Anies' win.

But then things started to get complicated for the FPI. The organization's leader was already embroiled in a sex scandal after screen shots of sexually explicit conversations and nudes allegedly belonging to him and a woman who wasn't his wife hit the internet. The police announced plans to charge Habib Rizieq with violating the pornography law and he disappeared overseas, allegedly to Saudi Arabia, where he remains today.

Meanwhile, Anies has seemingly distanced himself from the 212 crowd. When he failed to show up for the anniversary of the 411 rally—the first in a series of anti-Ahok protests and one that turned violent—an FPI-linked lawyer accused the governor of using them to win the election.

Anies declined to comment on why he failed to show, dodging the matter until the press eventually shifted its attention toward another fast-moving and equally dramatic story—the efforts of graft suspect Setya Novanto to avoid being questioned by anti-corruption investigators.

Then the 212 pulled the whole matter back before the press, prompting another series of denials and dodges until today when Anies admitted he approved the whole anniversary demonstration after all.

A demonstration will take place at Monas this Saturday. Unless something else happens between now and then. And judging by how this story has played out so far, the answer to this question is still anyone's guess.