Replacing Tulo: Goins' Latest Challenge Will Be His Toughest

Until this past weekend, Ryan Goins' surprising new ability to be a genuine offensive contributor for the Toronto Blue Jays was little more than curiosity.

Sure, it was a source of pride for those who had long argued that he deserved a bigger role on the team. It was a point of debate for those who wondered whether the new production from Goins was sustainable, or whether he might be on his way to supplanting the injured Devon Travis as the club's second baseman of the future. But in terms of the high-flying Jays' offence? Whatever Goins had been doing was just gravy—another possible diamond in the rough to add to their already overflowing embarrassment of riches.

That all changed Saturday in New York. Kevin Pillar's chin hit Troy Tulowitzki's shoulder blade after a miscommunication on a fly ball to shallow centre field, causing a small crack that will force the All-Star shortstop to the sidelines for at least two or three weeks, but likely longer.

Granted, Tulowitzki has hardly been himself at the plate so far this season. In 2014 his weighted runs created plus (wRC+)—an advanced offensive metric adjusted for league and park that gave him no advantage for playing in hitter-friendly Colorado the way that traditional numbers do—was higher (171) than Josh Donaldson's has been this year (159), but this season he's been almost exactly average at 99.

But what's pedestrian for Tulo makes a formidable challenge for all but the best big leaguers. Of the 24 shortstops who would qualify for the batting title if the season ended today, only six have been better than Tulowitzki by wRC+ (one of whom is Pittsburgh's Jung Ho Kang, who has actually played more third base than shortstop). And then there's Ryan Goins.

Goins has a wRC+ of just 62 over nearly 700 big league plate appearances, meaning his offence has been 38 percent below league average for his career. Since the start of the 2013 season, 336 players have come to the plate at least 600 times, and Goins' 62 ranks second last by wRC+ (one spot ahead of new teammate Darwin Barney). He's been a .227/.273/.322 hitter over that span—in a word, abysmal.

Until some time in the middle of this year, that is.

Goins exploded at the plate in August, with a staggering wRC+ of 152—a .314/.442/.443 line—and a walk rate of 18.6 percent, putting him directly between Mike Trout and Bryce Harper on the month's leaderboard among those with at least 80 plate appearances. It would have been entirely too fluky a change to have been believed, save for the fact that it happened exactly as Goins altered his stance at the plate.

"Goins now rests his bat on his shoulder before he sets up his swing," explained John Lott of the National Post at the start of this month. "A left-handed hitter, his weight is balanced evenly on both feet instead of leaning more heavily on his left leg."

This adjustment both changed Goins' swing path, shortening it, and "helped him wait a little longer before deciding whether to swing," Lott further explained.

With more time to see pitches, a walk machine was born. With a shorter stroke on the pitches he did swing at, Goins was hitting more line drives, and his home run per fly ball rate jumped.

Now, with Tulowitzki out, another glove-first fielder Cliff Pennington getting regular playing time at second base, and Kevin Pillar's struggles becoming more and more conspicuous (51 wRC+ since the All-Star break), one might even be tempted to say that there's a need for Goins' bat to help keep the bottom of the Jays' lineup productive, and the offence as a whole running on something resembling all cylinders—especially with Edwin Encarnacion also struggling with injury.

Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, Goins' more recent results aren't quite as encouraging.

Sure, the sample size is even smaller than the hard-to-believe explosion just witnessed, and the changes to his stance and approach—compelling reasons to believe he'd moved in the positive direction—are still in effect, but the seven games before Tuesday's loss in Atlanta looked discouragingly familiar.

A mere four singles over 28 plate appearances. No walks, no extra base hits, and a preponderance of ground balls, culminating in a tough Sunday in New York in which he struck out in all three of his plate appearances. He has a .143/.143/.143 line over the span.

Goins bounced back Tuesday with a hit and a walk in four plate appearances, but that should serve as little comfort, given that it felt all the way up until his injury that Tulowitzki might be on the verge of a breakout. Now with Goins forced to carry the load, and the Jays still struggling to finish off the second-place New York Yankees and take a firm grip on the top spot in the American League East, what was meant by what may or may not have been August's mirage becomes all the more important.

The defence may be superb, and the Jays may have no other option but to hope for the best with Goins regardless. But as for the question of just how seamlessly he will make up for what Tulowitzki provided, looking at the recent numbers—as well as his career ones until sometime in July—it's hard not to feel like the jury is still a long way out.