Marines taking part in an invasion exercise to demonstrate their amphibious capability in 2015 (Steve Parsons/PA Archive/PA Images)War with Spain: it didn't seem likely a year ago, but now it's absolutely inevitable. Britain is leaving the European Union, Gibraltar's future looks set to become a political football, the government is in the grip of a feverish longing for a return to the days of empire and ex-Tory leader Michael Howard has said Theresa May would show "Thatcher-like resolve" in defending the islands, dropping a sick cultural reference to very cool retro war, The Falklands.Of course, it wasn't so long ago – in 2002 – that 30 marines stormed the beaches at the Spanish town of San Felipe, carrying 60mm mortars and SA80 assault rifles, only to be met by startled fishermen. They'd got the wrong place. They were on a training exercise and were meant to be in Gibraltar.But what if it happened for real? Spain and Britain, going at it like back in the good old days of Francis Drake. The raw data is inconclusive: Britain has 227 tanks to Spain's 273, 11 submarines to Spain's three, 197 combat aircraft (including fighter jets and bombers) to Spain's 143, and its army size is 140,400 compared to Spain's 126,000. Would that be enough to ensure the brave British future of a piece of rock at the entrance to the Mediterranean?Theresa May has laughed off talk of war, but why should we trust her? Wanting to find out how an actual war between Her Majesty's finest and those tricky Spaniards would play out, I spoke to Nick Watts, a military expert who serves as the director of Eurodefense UK and the deputy director general of the UK Defence Forum.
WATCH: War Games – The Special Ops Olympics
VICE: Hi Nick. A sober question to begin with: how would Nato respond to two allies going to war?
Nick Watts: Greece and Turkey, who are both Nato allies, do have reasonably serious bust-ups in the Aegean every now and then. The United States, which is the big dog in Nato, has had to intervene before to tell them to stop it. I'm sure if there was any escalating tension, Nato collectively, and the US particularly, would try and play – as they did in the Falklands – the honest broker.But then Trump has somewhat distanced himself from Nato, and of course America couldn't stop the Falklands War…
That's right, and a lot of people on the British side thought America was being more pro-Argentine than they should have been. This hypothetical war we are talking about is not a daft question at all because these things can happen. There are lots of European countries that have histories they've subdued because of Nato, but the moment you take the lid off – we aren't in the EU any more, so that does take the lid off somewhat – things can change.So Nato capitulates and war between Spain and Britain begins. Who has the bigger military?
Britain has the bigger military, but Spain has the home advantage. They are defending on the goal line, while the British army is spread out, with forces in the Falklands, Cyprus, Brunei and with parts of the Royal Air Force in the Baltics and in Romania. The Royal Navy is spread around the world, so Britain would have to pull together a taskforce from all over the place, so it's not as if the UK has an advantage because it is bigger. This is Spain's backyard and they would clearly be much more motivated.Where would the fighting happen at the beginning?
Air and sea, because if we are talking about Gibraltar, British forces have to get there, which gives Spanish forces the opportunity to harry them en route. Spain has some of the same equipment Britain does – Typhoon aircraft, F-18s, and they also have a small aircraft carrier with Harrier jets, which Britain had till recently, but no longer has. Britain has no air cover, so whilst its taskforce is en route to Spain, it gives the Spanish a chance to push the British out to sea or do some damage.What do you mean by "no air cover"?
Britain's navy has no organic air power; it has no Harrier aircraft and no aircraft carrier, so it could be quite embarrassing for the British.Which military outfit is the most sophisticated?
The Brits have a Type-45 Destroyer, which is an air defence destroyer, so that would be the air cover at sea. Type 23 frigates, which are anti-submarine and would listen out for Spanish subs. British aircraft is equipped with very good guided missiles. So Britain could use its cruise missiles to stand outside Spanish territory and launch a shock-and-awe type assault into Spain, to target its military operations and communications. Britain's lack of air cover is balanced upwards by the fact that it can use its missiles to reach into Spain from a long way away.The last time Spain and Britain fought, frigates, cannons and muskets were key. Would cyber technology be key today?
The UK has declared a policy of having an offensive cyber capability, and I'm sure because Spain is a Nato ally both sides have a pretty good idea of what each other's systems are. It's also about the commanders – who are they and what kind of operators are they? What matters is that people have confidence in the guy at the top. Like in boxing, you need to come out hard and fast and get your opponent on the floor as quickly as possible.If Britain invades by land, where do they go?
If Britain can reinforce Gibraltar then they can strike from there. You want to knock out the capital. Spain is quite mountainous, so I expect the small British landing force would do what is known as a "demonstration" – they would seize a port.They wouldn't want to go overland to Madrid because then you get caught up in lots of guerrilla fighting – the Spanish first coined guerrilla at the beginning of the 19th century during the Peninsular War. They invented the word so they'd be giving us a hard time if Britain tried to capture Madrid by land. There's no point invading in the north, although you might try and foment dissent amongst the Basques or Catalans.What would a naval battle between the two look like?
The Spanish navy has lots of smaller craft, Britain has big ships, but they are vulnerable – they don't have the ability to fight off lots of small ships, particularly if they [the small ships] can get close. Britain's nuclear-powered submarines against Spain's diesel-powered submarines would be a fight we haven't seen before. Nuclear fleets are for deep ocean work, whereas this would be coastal work. Diesel subs – and Spain only has three – are short-range, but they are very quiet.If Spain wanted to launch a counter-attack and invade Britain, what could they do?
Britain has lots of islands that could be grabbed quite easily. If things were getting difficult, Spain could look to take one of the Scilly Isles or one of the Channel Islands. They are remote from the mainland, they aren't defended and there are no military facilities on them. But it could work as a demonstration, to say, "We've got this, are you going to take us off or are you going to talk to us?" The Falklands started with some scrap dealers turning up on the island of South Georgia, after all.Who would win this totally hypothetical / entirely serious war?
I suspect the British would win, but the diplomatic and political fallout would be very bad and would create a lot of bad will. I hope our diplomats would do enough to stop it starting in the first place.@oscarrickettnow
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WATCH: War Games – The Special Ops Olympics
VICE: Hi Nick. A sober question to begin with: how would Nato respond to two allies going to war?
Nick Watts: Greece and Turkey, who are both Nato allies, do have reasonably serious bust-ups in the Aegean every now and then. The United States, which is the big dog in Nato, has had to intervene before to tell them to stop it. I'm sure if there was any escalating tension, Nato collectively, and the US particularly, would try and play – as they did in the Falklands – the honest broker.
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That's right, and a lot of people on the British side thought America was being more pro-Argentine than they should have been. This hypothetical war we are talking about is not a daft question at all because these things can happen. There are lots of European countries that have histories they've subdued because of Nato, but the moment you take the lid off – we aren't in the EU any more, so that does take the lid off somewhat – things can change.So Nato capitulates and war between Spain and Britain begins. Who has the bigger military?
Britain has the bigger military, but Spain has the home advantage. They are defending on the goal line, while the British army is spread out, with forces in the Falklands, Cyprus, Brunei and with parts of the Royal Air Force in the Baltics and in Romania. The Royal Navy is spread around the world, so Britain would have to pull together a taskforce from all over the place, so it's not as if the UK has an advantage because it is bigger. This is Spain's backyard and they would clearly be much more motivated.Where would the fighting happen at the beginning?
Air and sea, because if we are talking about Gibraltar, British forces have to get there, which gives Spanish forces the opportunity to harry them en route. Spain has some of the same equipment Britain does – Typhoon aircraft, F-18s, and they also have a small aircraft carrier with Harrier jets, which Britain had till recently, but no longer has. Britain has no air cover, so whilst its taskforce is en route to Spain, it gives the Spanish a chance to push the British out to sea or do some damage.
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Britain's navy has no organic air power; it has no Harrier aircraft and no aircraft carrier, so it could be quite embarrassing for the British.Which military outfit is the most sophisticated?
The Brits have a Type-45 Destroyer, which is an air defence destroyer, so that would be the air cover at sea. Type 23 frigates, which are anti-submarine and would listen out for Spanish subs. British aircraft is equipped with very good guided missiles. So Britain could use its cruise missiles to stand outside Spanish territory and launch a shock-and-awe type assault into Spain, to target its military operations and communications. Britain's lack of air cover is balanced upwards by the fact that it can use its missiles to reach into Spain from a long way away.The last time Spain and Britain fought, frigates, cannons and muskets were key. Would cyber technology be key today?
The UK has declared a policy of having an offensive cyber capability, and I'm sure because Spain is a Nato ally both sides have a pretty good idea of what each other's systems are. It's also about the commanders – who are they and what kind of operators are they? What matters is that people have confidence in the guy at the top. Like in boxing, you need to come out hard and fast and get your opponent on the floor as quickly as possible.If Britain invades by land, where do they go?
If Britain can reinforce Gibraltar then they can strike from there. You want to knock out the capital. Spain is quite mountainous, so I expect the small British landing force would do what is known as a "demonstration" – they would seize a port.
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The Spanish navy has lots of smaller craft, Britain has big ships, but they are vulnerable – they don't have the ability to fight off lots of small ships, particularly if they [the small ships] can get close. Britain's nuclear-powered submarines against Spain's diesel-powered submarines would be a fight we haven't seen before. Nuclear fleets are for deep ocean work, whereas this would be coastal work. Diesel subs – and Spain only has three – are short-range, but they are very quiet.If Spain wanted to launch a counter-attack and invade Britain, what could they do?
Britain has lots of islands that could be grabbed quite easily. If things were getting difficult, Spain could look to take one of the Scilly Isles or one of the Channel Islands. They are remote from the mainland, they aren't defended and there are no military facilities on them. But it could work as a demonstration, to say, "We've got this, are you going to take us off or are you going to talk to us?" The Falklands started with some scrap dealers turning up on the island of South Georgia, after all.Who would win this totally hypothetical / entirely serious war?
I suspect the British would win, but the diplomatic and political fallout would be very bad and would create a lot of bad will. I hope our diplomats would do enough to stop it starting in the first place.@oscarrickettnow