Trump and Macron will try to make nice during French trip

Despite hitting a few road bumps in their early interactions, French President Emmanuel Macron is set to host Donald Trump on an official visit to Paris Thursday. Following an invitation from Macron to observe Bastille Day in the French capital, the two inexperienced world leaders – a slick 39-year-old internationalist and an unpredictable 71-year-old committed to “America First” – will have the chance to smooth over their differences and make nice.

Analysts say that despite raised eyebrows and French reservations over the visit – during which the presidents will also commemorate the 100th anniversary of America’s entry into World War I – it could provide a useful opportunity for the leaders to forge a rapport and establish a mutually beneficial working relationship, regardless of their differences.

“The trip is surprising, to an extent,” Manuel Lafont Rapnouil, head of the Paris office at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told VICE News. “Some people are wondering whether Macron is offering too much to Trump and being too conciliatory by inviting him.”

In the lead-up to France’s recent election, Trump made several comments widely seen as supportive of Macron’s rival, the anti-immigration populist Marine Le Pen. The U.S. president has also repeatedly slammed France’s record on counterterrorism and the integration of its Muslim community, labeling the country “a disaster” last September.

When the two men finally met for the first time at a NATO summit in Brussels in May, their encounter was notable for an awkward, six-second handshake-cum-arm wrestle that Macron later said was intended to signal that he would not make even small concessions.

And that was before Trump pulled the U.S. out of the Paris climate accords in June – damaging an agreement viewed by the French as a significant diplomatic achievement on the world stage – and prompting Macron to both offer his country as a refuge for disillusioned Americans and take a shot at his U.S. counterpart by tweeting: “Make our planet great again.”

Disdain for the new U.S. president is high among the French – 86 percent of respondents in a recent Pew Research Center survey said they had no confidence Trump “would do the right thing regarding world affairs” – and his decision to pull out of the Paris accord has only solidified the anger against him. Yannick Jadot, a French Green politician, recently called Trump’s invitation to France “a symbolic reward unworthy of the U.S. president, who has given the finger to humanity.”

But despite the differences, Rapnouil said both Macron and Trump have demonstrated during previous meetings – at the NATO, G-7, and G-20 summits – that they share “a willingness to have a personal connection.”

On Macron’s part, this reflects a pragmatic recognition for the critical importance of the deep and longstanding relationship with the U.S. – regardless of who’s commander-in-chief.

“When Macron announced the visit, he said, ‘We have a long-term strategic relationship with the U.S.’ – which can be interpreted as ‘We’re not going to damage this relationship just because we happen to disagree with the current president’,” Rapnouil said. “There’s no will on the European side – not just from Macron but from Merkel and other European leaders – to antagonize the U.S.”

The trip will present a useful opportunity for Macron to build rapport with Trump: to develop a shared position on common interests such as counterterrorism and Syria, and gain a sense of the unpredictable U.S. leader’s thinking on the many issues where they differ – climate change, trade, immigration, Iran, among others – with a hope of influencing his position, as he recently attempted to do on climate policy during talks in Germany.

For Trump, the trip – which includes a trip to Napoleon’s tomb, and dinner with the first ladies at a restaurant in the Eiffel Tower – will give him another shot at proving he can play the role of international statesman, while basking in the pomp and ceremony of an official visit. This follows a poor showing at the recent G-20 summit in Hamburg, where he appeared isolated – and the U.S.’ standing diminished – on the world stage.

A focal point of the trip will be the Bastille Day parade, in which a contingent of American soldiers will take part alongside their French counterparts. The military focus is in keeping with the flavor of the visit, in which the White House says counterterrorism and Syria will be the priority in talks – a mutual priority for both presidents, who have pledged to defeat the Islamic State group. The trip was announced after a phone call between the pair during which they agreed that any use of chemical weapons by the Syrian regime would constitute a “red line,” said Rapnouil.

The parade will also be a good opportunity for Macron to impress upon Trump the country’s military strength and its commitment to playing its part in the global war on terror. While Trump has repeatedly slammed European NATO members for failing to meet the bloc’s target of spending 2 percent of GDP on defense, the White House offered a more nuanced take this week, with one official saying that France, the second-biggest contributor to the U.S.-led coalition in Syria, was carrying a heavy load by spending 1.8 percent of GDP on defense.

Such comments set the tone for a visit in which both sides will be eager to play up what unites rather than divides them. “You know, Macron and the president have somewhat different views on how to achieve the end goal,” Gary Cohn, director of the White House National Economic Council, recently told reporters returning from the G-20. “But I think the end goal is the same.”