Manning-o-Meter Week 1: Mariota Strikes First

Manning-o-Meter measures the prowess of every first- and second-year quarterback on a weekly basis. It is, by nature, a subjective excercise. I will pepper in as many objective observations as I can along the way, but you will probably be mad with my conclusions at some point. DYAR and DVOA are Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted metrics, explained here. The goal is get a better indicator of how these guys are playing and where their teams may hold them back by play-calling and offensive personnel.

The quarterbacks on the Manning-o-Meter are, from left-to-right: Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jon Kitna, Andy Dalton, Jake Plummer, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, and Peyton Manning. The scale is not measuring these quarterbacks against those players as rookies, but rather against a "vintage" performance by those players.

Marcus Mariota

Traditional Stats: 13-16, 209 yards, four touchdowns, two sacks

Advanced Stats: 182 DYAR, 149.3% DVOA

Thing you can blame for a poor performance: We won't be needing this column.

Analysis: Odds are that you've seen this effort broken down elsewhere on the Internet already. Any time a rookie quarterback has a debut like this, the tapeocracy starts to pick apart how repeatable it is. It's part of who we are.

I do think the comparison to Robert Griffin's first start against New Orleans is easy to draw, but I also don't want to turn this column into a #wellactually PSA for Titans fans. The truth is that quarterback development is still a black box. We don't know how Mariota is going to react to five-step drops. He's a different player than Griffin, as well as Colin Kaepernick. I'm not going to critique him for something he wasn't asked to do in this game.

The ultimate goal is being a well-rounded quarterback, sure, but Peyton Manning didn't run much under center, either. I'd like to see Mariota hit a few more stick throws on five-step drops before we anoint him the second coming. But I also leave this game with the impression that hemming and hawing about Mariota by anonymous scout-types was fear-mongering.

Speaking of stereotypes, how about the one that Ken Whisenhunt doesn't know how to handle a quarterback because Matt Leinart and a bunch of low-round picks failed? Can we put that one to bed? There's plenty of game theory stuff to kill him on still.

Teddy Bridgewater

Traditional Stats: 23-32, 231 yards, one interception, five sacks

Advanced Stats: -74 DYAR, -43.2% DVOA

Thing you can blame for a poor performance: The offensive line and, apparently, nerves.

Analysis: I've intentionally not watched much Teddy Bridgewater. That is how mad I was that the Texans passed on him last offseason and are stuck in quarterback hell. Watching Bridgewater play would only remind me of this fact.

So with that context, this was an interesting game to stumble upon. Bridgewater, outside of a brilliant deep throw to Mike Wallace, was frantic in this game. He checked down often. His pop fly of an interception was nowhere near the target. He spun and took a sack by running into his own lineman, T.J. Clemmings. There have been prettier games.

I don't believe this is the start of a course correction. I do believe this is the sort of game the scouts envisioned from him when they began tumbling him down draft boards. His athleticism was a problem when dealing with blitzers. He couldn't take advantage of good field position, and neither could Vikings kicker Blair Walsh. If you missed this game, you're better off for it. It was ugly.

And yet, there were still these flashes of awesome play.

Bridgewater himself called it an aberration, saying he was just "too excited." I'm inclined to lean that way for now -- at least until the evidence piles up as the weeks move on.

Johnny Manziel

Traditional Stats: 13-24, 182 yards, one touchdown, one interception, two fumbles, three sacks

Advanced Stats: -68 DYAR, -50.6% DVOA

Thing you can blame for a poor performance: Receiving talent, aggressive Jets defense.

Analysis: This is going to be weird to admit, but I actually liked what I watched from Manziel in this game. He's improved by leaps and bounds from last year, which earns him points in my book.

The Jets sent a lot of blitzes at him and were able to turn him over twice on strip sacks, which is a problem for Manziel. It's one thing to be small, it's another to play like it against NFL physicality. You all saw the touchdown throw, which was on Antonio Cromartie, but Manziel's worst play of the game came when he ran himself into a strip sack on second-and-10 in the fourth quarter. Instead of accepting the short-area throw he had, Manziel drifted to the right. This let Trevor Reilly have the angle to nail him from behind.

But that was the only egregious mental error for Manziel in this one. His numbers aren't terrific, but were weighted down by drops and penalties on what felt like every big gain the Browns generated. He also threw multiple times at Gary Barnidge, which tells you all you need to know about Cleveland's skill position players.

His two worst traits at this point are ball placement and scrambling a little too early. Defensive coordinators are going to invite the latter when they can. But that's a damn sight better from where he was this time last year.

Blake Bortles

Traditional Stats: 22-40, 183 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, five sacks

Advanced Stats: -125 DYAR, -53.8% DVOA

Thing you can blame for a poor performance: Sam Young's pass protection.

Analysis: The first game of the Greg Olsen era in Jacksonville did bring a few positives. Olsen gave Bortles an array of checkdown options and he used them often. This came packaged with a lot of short screens and slants, which tells me the Jaguars aren't exactly trusting Bortles downfield yet. Bortles did lead a quality touchdown drive in the two-minute drill. Cynics might say that Carolina's soft coverage on the drive helped, but he did uncork a couple of quality throws. I'd also agree with him that criticism of the play calls is a little unfounded as of now.

What sticks out about Bortles is just how inaccurate he can be. My notes on Bortles have many balls to the corner or back shoulder that sailed on him. If an average NFL quarterback does this 10 percent of the time, he does it 30 percent of the time. You can't do that and throw back-breaking pick-sixes. It's just an untenable situation for an offense.

Developmentally, I'm interested by how Olsen is handling him because this seems to be a touch easier. Is this going to spark improvement for Bortles? Does it even matter? When you watch Bortles you can still see the arm that wooed Jacksonville general manager Dave Caldwell. But an offense can't give up 30 percent of its pass plays and spend another 30 percent on the slant and screen game and expect to get anywhere.

Jameis Winston

Traditional Stats: 16-33, 210 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions, four sacks

Advanced Stats: -152 DYAR, -77.6% DVOA

Thing you can blame for a poor performance: This offensive line is sad.

Analysis: Mariota's performance was akin to a bunch of Street Fighter II Perfect wins on easy mode. Jameis' was watching someone pick Dhalsim on the hardest difficulty setting, draw Guile, and get flash kicked into oblivion every time an arm extended.

Winston operated mostly in pro sets, almost only on five-step drops. His offensive line was horrible. And, of course, he threw picks. You knew he'd throw picks, right? Everything about his college career was going to culminate in those moments.

I'm not surprised by this outcome at all. I've thought for months that Winston was going to take the Eli Manning quarterback development path. That path: throw a bunch of interceptions and look awful in Year One. Figure out how to actually play NFL football by the end of Year 2.

This drawing below is not potential-adjusted. It just tells you how Winston played last week. But I have no worries about Winston's future as a franchise quarterback just yet. He's got plenty of time. He'll get to play with Mike Evans again soon. And, hey, maybe the Bucs will even find an offensive lineman or three along the way!

Derek Carr

Traditional Stats: 7-12, 61 yards

Advanced Stats: 9 DYAR, -1.8% DVOA

Thing you can blame for a poor performance: Receiver drops. I counted two in just twelve attempts.

Analysis: Injury cut Carr's start short, so it's hard to be hyper-critical of him. Oakland continued to give him a passive early game plan. He played mostly out of the shotgun, and only a few times did I see him pass out of base personnel.

This was a game of checkdowns, quick outs, and slants. Carr missed a couple of different sideline throws by putting too much air under the ball. This included one on third-and-6 that should have converted an easy first down. I haven't watched a ton of Carr tape, as I dealt with the AFC South last year, but I'm curious if that will be an issue for him going forward.