The Unlikely Death Spiral of Driving in America

Cars are in the midst of a surprising decline in the US. Yes, here, in America, home of NASCAR and American Graffiti and the drive-thru window. After a century of reliable car-centricism, the unfathomable has happened: Driver's license applications are down. Total miles driven are down. Now, according to a new report, almost every other quantifiable aspect of car culture is shrinking, too.

Research from US PIRG demonstrates that over the last decade, in nearly every single American urban area, the number of people who commute by car is down. The number of households without cars is way up. More Americans are using mass transit. And bike commuting is up almost everywhere, too.

PIRG has the hard numbers, and they're striking. Almost striking enough to signal something of a death spiral for America's love affair with cars:

• The proportion of workers commuting by private vehicle—either alone or in a carpool—declined in 99 out of 100 of America’s most populous urbanized areas between 2000 and the 2007-2011 period averaged in U.S. Census data.
• From 2006 to 2011, the average number of miles driven per resident fell in almost three-quarters of America’s largest urbanized areas for which up-to-date and accurate Federal Highway Administration data are available (54 out of 74 urban areas).
• The proportion of households without cars increased in 84 out of the 100 largest urbanized areas from 2006 to 2011. The proportion of households with two cars or more cars decreased in 86 out of the 100 of these areas during that period.
• The proportion of residents bicycling to work increased in 85 out of 100 of America’s largest urbanized areas between 2000 and 2007-2011.
• The number of passenger-miles traveled per capita on transit increased in 60 out of 98 of America’s large urbanized areas whose trends could be analyzed between 2005 and 2010.

Equally as important, as Matt Yglesias notes, is that there was no correlation at all between the falling drivership and economic wellbeing—two of the places that lost the most cars, Austin, Texas and Washington DC, saw the most economic growth. Cities don't need cars to thrive.

And people are moving to cities. Where they're spending more time walking, biking, and taking trains. In and out of cities, young people are spending more time online and less time driving to meet up with friends. The numbers continue to support the thesis that Brooklyn—the walkable epitome of the trendy suburban migrant magnet—along with online social networks, are extinguishing America's obsession with cars.

The numbers also seem to create ample room for a certain high-tech, urbanist vision of American transit that's taking shape—one that accommodates better rail travel for inter-city and long-distance journeys, and electric and/or automated driverless cars for 'last mile' and local community trips. And, of course, improved infrastructure for good old-fashioned bikes.

This vision won't just be more efficient and environmentally healthy—it could also end up saving a lot of lives. Cars are a bigger killer than guns, after all, and continuing to kick them out of cities will drastically improve safety, too. As more people spend less time stuck in traffic, more time walking, or reading or video-gaming on transit, and embracing the convenience and culture of cities, the automobile will continue to circle the drain. At least, it will grow increasingly more peripheral. There will still be aficionados and auto sports and car magazines, sure; but the car's position as a central cultural fixture and a necessary staple of American life appears to be decisively on the wane.

All of which seems to say, the future might not be carless altogether—but eventually, we're going to be doing a lot less driving.