If The NCAA Is Mad At Roy Williams, It Probably Will Punish UNC Women's Basketball

The University of North Carolina released its notice of allegations from the National Collegiate Athletic Association on Thursday, outlining five major violations of NCAA rules, including the dreaded "lack of institutional control" allegation, which refers to rampant cheating within the athletic department.

This stems from over a decade of institutionalized academic fraud, in which athletes were steered into fake classes and had papers written for them so as not to jeopardize their eligibility. These allegations have been known for months, ever since an independent investigation found that athletes made up a disproportionate percentage of these classes and that tutors were essentially writing athletes' papers. This is just the first time the NCAA has released its findings on the case.

Given that the NCAA contends it exists for academic purposes, this scandal should, on the surface, be a major blow to North Carolina's athletic department. However, judging by the actual NCAA infractions, the school's revenue sports—football and men's basketball—might escape with relatively minor penalties.

Let's take a closer look at the biggest issues going forward.

1) Will women's basketball take the fall?

There's no doubt that men's basketball and football players were filtered into North Carolina's so-called "paper classes." Former stars on the school's beloved basketball team have claimed this publicly, as has former school learning specialist Mary Willingham, whose whistleblowing touched off the ensuing scandal. However, if the NCAA can't prove to its standards that those two teams institutionalized this system, as Willingham and others claim to have seen firsthand, then the association won't punish North Carolina as severely.

Indeed, the majority of the NCAA's charges come against the women's basketball team, which is mentioned roughly 50 times in the list of allegations, as coaches and personnel surrounding the team allegedly steered their players into these classes to help keep them eligible.

The NCAA has a longstanding reputation for coming down hard on the little guy, but going (relatively) easy on the cash cows. As the late Jerry Tarkanian once said, "The NCAA is so mad at Kentucky that it put Cleveland State on two more years' probation."

Regardless of whether the men's basketball and football teams knew about the alleged misconduct, it's fair to assume that the NCAA could easily punish both for "lacking institutional control," as it recently did with Syracuse men's basketball. However, the association's focus seems to be elsewhere. For fans of UNC revenue sports, that's sadly something to celebrate. For those who follow the NCAA, it's hardly a surprise.

2) Roy Williams can win by pleading ignorance

The problem with NCAA investigations is that they are utterly subjective, relying solely on school and witness cooperation. While the association has punished those who are uncooperative in the past, it has hampered ability to gather evidence because it has no power of subpoena.

Tar Heels basketball coach Roy Williams has played this dynamic perfectly. He can cooperate, say he knew nothing, "express concern"—as the NCAA claims he did—and wash his hands of the matter, regardless of the circumstantial evidence and the claims of Willingham and others that link him to the fraud.

So if the women's basketball program is punished more than the men's program, that doesn't necessarily mean women's basketball was that much more fraudulent—it just means the NCAA was able to compile more substantive information about the women's program.

Williams should still be worried, as a lack of institutional control ruling could produce some serious penalties. But his program will likely come out of this in much better shape than it deserves, just because he smartly chose to play dumb.

3) What precedent will the NCAA set?

The NCAA's primary defense against looming federal antitrust lawsuits taking aim at college sports amateurism is that the association exists to protect the educational experiences of athletes, and that it should be able to violate the Sherman Act in order to facilitate learning. With that in mind, whatever penalties the NCAA ultimately hands down should be significant, given that UNC committed systematic academic fraud for a decade.

However, the association has also claimed in court in response to a separate lawsuit that it "did not assume a duty to ensure the quality of the education of student-athletes." If that's true, then the penalties could be relatively light.

The NCAA has to decide whether it wants to cement its role as a monitor of academic integrity within college athletics, or if it wants to only apply moderate penalties to lessen its reach and absolve itself of responsibility to police academic issues like this.

All NCAA cases are subjective, and this one is entirely unique altogether. It will frame the association's image and responsibilities heading into an uncertain legal future.