Fantasy Football's Polarizing Players: Tom Brady

(Editor's note: From now until the start of the season, VICE Sports will look at some of fantasy football's most polarizing players.)

Tom Brady's recent fantasy football stock reads like an EKG.

Last September, after being drafted on average in the fifth round of 12-team leagues, Brady produced an anemic 35 total fantasy points in four games, a span during which he had four TD passes, was sacked nine times, and averaged 198 yards passing per contest.

Then, from Weeks 5-16, he was fantasy's No. 4 quarterback, with 29 touchdowns and seven interceptions and 294 passing yards per game. Coming off his sixth Super Bowl appearance and fourth victory, Brady seemed a sure top-five QB for the 2015 fantasy season.

Then came DeflateGate and a four-game suspension, which nearly knocked Brady completely out of his position's top 10, a perch he's occupied for more than a decade. Now the DeflateGate drama is playing out in a New York courtroom, and the possibility looms that Brady's suspension could be reduced or eliminated altogether before the regular season begins.

Given these astronomical ups and avalanche downs, what should you do with Brady in your '15 fantasy draft?

Obviously, the answer to this question depends on two distinct questions. First: At age 38, are Brady's skills eroding, or does he still belong in the top echelon of quarterbacks? And second: How should we deal with the various suspension possibilities, assuming we have to draft before a final ruling is rendered?

The first question is easier to answer. When Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman are healthy, Brady is still a star signal caller. Even with his slow start in '14—which we can mostly blame on his offensive line—he was one of seven passers with at least six 300-yard passing games. It's true that his deep ball isn't as scintillating as it once was, but the New England Patriots have adapted: last year, Brady had the second-most attempts in the NFL thrown between five and 10 yards downfield, behind only Joe Flacco. On those attempts, he had 13 TDs and one interception. And he was a monster in the red zone, with a league-high 25 TD passes (tied with Drew Brees and Peyton Manning). His skills—and receiving personnel—aren't as imposing as they were in '07, but he's still plenty great enough to deliver big numbers when he's out there.

Which brings us to the tougher question: when will he be out there?

Here's the point at which I cop to decidedly not living and dying with every day of the DeflateGate drama. I have my own opinions about whether the NFL's punishment fits this particular crime—I think they don't—but thankfully it's not my job to parse every fart and whistle that issues from a federal judge's transcript. I don't know what Brady might cop to. I don't know what settlement the league might agree to. I find the whole thing tiresome to the point of ennui.

For the moment, until the real games begin, I'll occupy myself with dishing out fantasy advice based on decidedly imperfect information. To arrive at a solid draft-day Brady strategy, let's look at the range of possible scenarios:

Brady misses four games. To me, in a vacuum and not covering DeflateGate at all, this seems like the least likely outcome. The NFL would be chopping off a hand as punishment for a petty theft. But if it happens, Brady can only be considered a borderline top-10 fantasy QB. In most leagues, four games is a third of the regular season. If you select Brady at his current Average Draft Position (QB9, 80th overall), you must also spend a ninth- or 10th-rounder on an Eli Manning or Sam Bradford type, and then muddle through for a month. (Actually, you'll muddle through for five weeks, as the Patriots have a Week 4 bye.) That's a steep investment at QB for non-elite production, and it leaves you with a long month of suffering through the ups and downs of a player who nominally shouldn't be a fantasy starter.

Brady misses games, but fewer than four. Clearly, as the suspension gets shorter, Brady's rank rises. You will feel less and less compelled to spend a higher pick on a backup, and you will feel better and better about seeing Tom Terrific square off against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 5, or the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 3. If you bound me to an NFL boardroom table and forced me to watch Roger Goodell press conferences with my eyes propped open Clockwork Orange until I was forced to give a prediction, this is my likeliest scenario: an eleventh-hour settlement in which Brady admits he covered up evidence and accepts a one-game penalty. And if that happens? Brady is a value pick for fantasy. I'd consider him a strong selection at around 60th overall.

Brady goes to the mat, the legal hijinks continue, an injunction is issued, and a trial date is set for 2022. If Brady winds up missing zero games, he's a top-five fantasy QB. That's where I rated him this winter, when it seemed ludicrous he could miss any time at all for such a minor offense. Heck, you could convince me that his rock-solid performances in recent years merit the QB3 spot, ahead of Peyton Manning. If this is the eventuality that materializes, woe betide the poor reporters who have to keep writing stories about this nonsense, but praise be to the lucky souls who draft Brady many rounds after his fair value.

The upshot is that one of pro sports' stupidest scandals is holding fantasy football hostage. Heck, if Brady misses four games, you could make the argument that Gronkowski and Edelman are reaches at their current ADPs (17th and 61st overall, respectively): Jimmy Garoppolo is hunky as heck, but he's totally unproven. Anyway, I'm perfectly okay selecting Brady in your upcoming draft, and look on his current ADP as something of a bargain, even as I acknowledge I have no idea what will happen in the hilarious and mind-numbing spectacle surrounding his suspension.

Christopher Harris is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writing Association award winner. He has a daily fantasy football podcast that you can find on iTunes, Stitcher, TuneIn and at www.HarrisFootball.com.