Analytics Can't Properly Value Cam Newton

This feature is part of Super Bowl Week at VICE Sports.

It took a few seasons in the league, but Cam Newton has finally fulfilled the potential that led the Carolina Panthers to select him first overall in the 2011 NFL Draft. I've written before about how analytics has a tough time weighing quarterbacks like Newton. With Cam about to cap his breakout season by playing in his first Super Bowl, it seems like a good time to dig a little deeper.

For the most part, Newton's basic stat line has remained unchanged. He posted career lows in sack rate, interceptions thrown, and QBR this season, but those were small steps forward. The biggest different this season has been Newton's touchdown rate: a league-leading 7.1 percent of his throws were touchdowns in 2015, as compared to a 2012-14 established career average of 4.3 percent.

So what's the issue? Well, touchdowns are, in general, pretty random—not completely random, but statistical outliers tend to regress to the mean the following year. Keeping that in mind, when you look at how Newton finished the season 11th in DYAR and 12th in DVOA, combined with the fact that Carolina's offensive line has played much better in 2015, I can understand how some might be a bit weirded out by Newton being on pace to win MVP, even if voters do love touchdowns.

And, truthfully, the disjunction is glaring and weird. On the field, we have this do-everything giant laying siege to the NFC during a triumphant breakthrough season. On paper, we have a slightly above-average quarterback. Let's look at why that is.

It's counterintuitive, but it's true. Offensive coordinator Mike Shula puts an emphasis on winning big plays downfield, and that means Carolina doesn't actually create much in the way of easy receiving yards.

Think of the popular spread attacks of the past five seasons—New England and Green Bay come to mind first, at least among NFL teams. Those teams run option routes designed to target defenses for an easy catch. Drawing from their West Coast offense roots, they mainly aim to keep the chains moving. They try to create "natural rubs" (or picks), often against man coverage.

The Panthers, on the other hand, come at you with eligible receivers that sometimes stay at the line. They care a great deal about blocking on running plays. They don't mind giving Newton extra time to throw. They'll come back after a failed deep throw and try the same thing next snap.

The simplest way to explain the difference between Newton's stats and those of someone like Tom Brady is that it comes down to different philosophies. Tom Brady runs New England's offense. Cam Newton is Carolina's offense. If Newton doesn't deliver, this offense goes nowhere. That's what has made this season so impressive, and feel so much different than the statline suggests.

Let's bring out my favorite clip of the season one last time.

Ted Ginn and Jerricho Cotchery are veteran minimum players at this point in their careers. Corey Brown is an undrafted free agent in his second season. Devin Funchess is a raw rookie with a second-round pedigree and a 49 percent catch rate.

Again, think back to Green Bay and New England. They have players who can win the ball in good coverage. They have receivers who, when healthy, can change the entire way a defense has to play at the line of scrimmage. Newton, for his part, has tight end Greg Olsen, who is very good. But as far as an outside receiver who can consistently beat tight coverage? If Olsen isn't flexed out there to create a matchup problem, the Panthers need both a good throw and a lucky roll on every receiver's hands check.

In today's NFL it's tough to have great passing statistics when the players around you don't help you create them. Newton has done it anyway.

No quarterback ran as often as Cam Newton. Odds are you've heard this, and have noticed that he's good at it. He scored 10 touchdowns, and posted a quarterback-high 142 DYAR on the ground.

This makes Carolina's offense extremely tough to stop in the red zone. The Panthers finished in the top 11 in Red Zone Passing and Rushing DVOA, as well as goal-to-go situations. While the Carolina offensive line sabotaged the run in 2014, they've consistently found success in one form or another ever since Newton joined them.

This is not surprising. Newton's development as a passer over the past few years has given him that Aaron Rodgers-esque combo every quarterback would kill for: he's patient with his reads and he runs like a hellion when he can't find anything open. The stereotypical running quarterback tends to do only the latter.

In this way, Newton's breakout season both transcends the stats and conforms to the late Supreme Court justice Potter Stewart's famous definition of pornography. Cam's brilliance may not readily apparent in most of his statistical indicators, but we sure know it when we see it.

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