There's Always Next Year: Detroit Lions

It's impossible to talk about the Detroit Lions this offseason and not bring up the likely retirement of Calvin Johnson. The star receiver has not made anything official yet, but all the chatter is pointing in that direction.

per — Dianna Marie Russini (@diannaESPN)January 31, 2016

Johnson was so dominant in his prime that certain teams just stacked two defensive backs against him at the snap. Last season, he played through debilitating ankle pain, and it showed. He's aware of the toll that football has taken on his body and, much like Barry Sanders, seems willing to walk away early, while walking away is still an option.

For all that there will eventually be to say about Johnson and his decision, there's not much that bears saying at this moment. The Lions can't realistically replace Calvin Johnson; no team could. A Hall of Fame wideout in his prime isn't exactly available at the push of a NFL general manager's On-Demand button. Losing Johnson may at least provide some long-term help for the Lions, in that his cap number is and always has been ridiculous. But, of course, he's much more than a cap figure.

Johnson's decision ultimately impacts Detroit's offseason either way, so I'll try to present both sides here.

Coach and Quarterback Confidence Rating: 5/10

Matthew Stafford is clearly a capable NFL quarterback. I think it's time to dispense with the illusion that coaches are holding him back or that he has some stratospheric ceiling that he hasn't reached. A capable NFL quarterback may just be what he is. Which is fine, given that playing quarterback in the NFL is his job.

Stafford's always had a cannon arm, but he's complemented it with inconsistency and accuracy issues even in his best season. He's the first quarterback of his kind—the guy who somehow makes throwing for 5,000 yards disappointing. As it stands, I think of Stafford as the Carson Palmer of the 2010s: a couple years in which he seemed like the next big thing, followed by some tribulations and creeping irrelevance. If only he could find his Bruce Arians.

Instead, he's got Jim Caldwell. The Lions retained Caldwell because he checks off a lot of head coach boxes. He's a good leader, his players play hard for him, and he's respected in the locker room. There aren't five coaches I can think of that are worse than him at game theory. There's nothing especially impressive about his ability as an X's and O's guy, but there are worse options.

But he seems to have decent coordinators in place now and, well, we do want him to sing Drake up on this couch. So, sure.

Key Offseason Decision: How much youth can be served?

The Lions hit big in the 2013 NFL Draft. While most of the first round has turned out to be busts or disappointments, Detroit walked away with Ezekiel Ansah. Not only that, but they found corner Darius Slay in the second round and Pro Bowl guard Larry Warford in the third. It was a great draft.

Now it's 2016, and it's time to figure out the timing and dollar figures for some big contracts on these guys. Ansah still has a fifth-year option, which the Lions will pick up after he rampaged through the league for 14.5 sacks last season. As non-first-rounders, Slay and Warford are both up for free agency after 2016.

If Johnson walks away, the Lions are in a pretty good spot to negotiate with each guy. Otherwise, they might have to wait a year on Ansah. Regardless, the Lions finally have some players of their own worth keeping, and it's time to pony up for them. That should be the main priority for the team this offseason.

Major Free Agents: DL Haloti Ngata, DE Jason Jones, C Manny Ramirez, S James Ihedigbo, OLB Tahir Whitehead

There are some decent situational players in this group. Ngata is the big name, but he turned 32 in January and is coming off one of the worst years of his career. I don't think he'll make big bucks next season, but free agency has a way of turning the only viable option at a particular position into a wealthy man. Ngata is certainly still a rare size/speed talent, even if the latter is fading.

Jones can provide situational pass rush, and Ramirez is a versatile interior lineman. Neither of them should be long-term fixtures, but could help a team in need of either of those skills.

Whitehead is an undrafted free agent that the Lions did well to land, and Ihedigbo missed some time with a quad injury but has deep safety experience. Neither of them are must-keeps.

Cap Situation: $22,101,314—21st in the NFL

This all changes completely if Johnson retires, by the way. He's got a $24,008,000 cap figure all on his own, and some of that would come back to the Lions depending upon whether his departure is a release or a retirement. Running back Joique Bell got the axe earlier this week, which saves another couple of million.

Detroit's roster is a pretty simple read. Linebacker Stephen Tulloch and tight end Brandon Pettigrew are guys who could get chopped for cap space. Together, they'd free up about $8.5 million. It's not that those two don't have their uses, and each is still an NFL-caliber player. But the level of Detroit's desperation for cap space and replacements is still unknown. The picture won't become clearer until we learn what Johnson will do. It's not especially clear after that, either, but first things first.