These Are the Biggest Storylines Facing the Raptors in the Second Half

(Editor's note: Welcome to The Rap Up at VICE Sports, where Alex Wong covers off all things Raptors. You can check previous installments here, and follow him on Twitter.)

At 25-15, the Raptors approach the halfway point of the regular-season schedule as the second-best team in the East, on a four-game winning streak, and with their next seven games at home. There are caveats. One: they're only three games ahead of the Celtics—the eighth-place team—in the loss column. Another: they're without DeMarre Carroll for the foreseeable future. For a team already lacking in depth, this could create other problems (which we'll get into) as the Raptors prepare for what they hope will be a deeper playoff run than the last two seasons.

Still, this season has to be considered a success to this point, given the injuries the Raptors have dealt with and how they had to integrate several key pieces into the lineup. As we look ahead to the second half of the season, here are a few storylines that could determine just how far the Raptors can advance in the playoffs:

Per NBA.com, the Raptors are a top-ten team in defensive efficiency, a significant improvement from last season when Toronto was eighth worst in the league (averaging 104.8 points per 100 possessions). If we drill down further, the Raptors have the eighth-best defence in the fourth quarter. They're outscoring opponents by 7.5 points per 100 possessions in the final 12 minutes, a mark that ranks them among the best in the league. The first-quarter numbers paint a different picture. The Raptors are one of the slowest starting teams in the league, getting outscored by 1.9 points per 100 possessions in the first 12 minutes of the game. Toronto has been a strong enough two-way team to overcome early deficits, but…

The slow starts compound the problem of running the Raptors' two most important players into the ground. DeMar DeRozan is fourth in the league at 36.7 minutes per game, with Kyle Lowry not far behind, tied for sixth at 36.4. Last season, Lowry averaged 34.5 minutes per game, and missed time in the second half of the season when injuries piled up. Lowry averaged 18.6 points, 7.2 assists and 4.8 rebounds on 42.2 percent shooting from the field before the All-Star break last season. His numbers after the break: 15.1 points, 5.4 assists, 4.5 rebounds, while shooting 37.3 percent from the field. When asked by a reporter last week whether he feels better this season thanks to an intense offseason regimen to shed some weight, Lowry simply replied: "Thanks for asking, but check with me in April." The Raptors need to make sure they don't burn their point guard out chasing all these victories. But they might not have much of a choice, unless…

Per Synergy Sports, DeRozan ranks 2nd in the NBA in pick-and-roll efficiency. Dwane Casey recently told ESPN's Zach Lowe, "To be honest, I didn't know he would be this kind of pick-and-roll player." Aside from his 3-point shooting, the overall development of DeRozan's range of abilities with the ball in his hand has been a revelation for this team, and makes the idea of re-signing their shooting guard to a long-term maximum level contract more appealing.

DeRozan's best month came in December, when he shot 47.1 percent from the field and averaged 25.0 points. DeRozan is a career 44.1 percent shooter, and is shooting just 41.5 percent in January so far. You have to go back to February and March of 2011 to find the last time he shot over 45 percent from the field in consecutive months. So, we might be in for some regression over the next few months, which illustrates the variance that still exists for an offence that relies on a mid-range shooter to create off isolation sets in late-game situations. His court vision has improved by leaps and bounds, and DeRozan is still getting to the free throw line at a near league-leading rate, but the Raptors are still a very familiar looking team late in close games, which brings us back to…

When Valanciunas plays in the fourth quarter, the Raptors are scoring 116.8 points per 100 possessions, and have a +8.2 net rating. Because he's missed time with injury, these numbers are based on only 103 total minutes over 21 games. So, there's probably not much we can glean from these stats. What we do know is that Valanciunas still gets lost in the offence way too much. Asked about whether the team simply forgets about their center at times after a win over Brooklyn last week, Lowry explained that the team plays at a pace that at times leaves their big man out of the offence for quarters at a time.

Lowry and DeRozan are one of the best backcourts in the league, but there's always been a feeling that this team can find a higher ceiling if they can integrate Valanciunas into the mix on offence at a greater rate. Perhaps we'll see this team transform into that next season when they make a decision on DeRozan, but finding more touches for Valanciunas and taking advantage of his ability to finish around the basket remains a talking point for this team. As is…

The prognosis for Carroll's timetable to return after having arthroscopic surgery on his right knee earlier this month is six-to-eight weeks, which would put him on pace to be back with the team before the start of the playoffs. Carroll hasn't been right even when he's played, dealing with a variety of ailments that prevented him from showing off his talents as an elite 3-and-D player. The Raptors have enough talent on the roster to overcome Carroll's absence for the next two months, but similar to what we discussed above regarding Valanciunas' role in the offence, a healthy Carroll who is able to neutralize opposing perimeter threats (and be an above average defender on LeBron James, should the Raptors see that matchup in the playoffs) gives this team a higher ceiling, especially in any postseason matchup in the first round. In the meantime, the Raptors should make their goal…

It still feels early to forecast the standings, especially in a bunched up East. But the Raptors have a great shot at the second seed, which means they would avoid a matchup with the Cavs until the conference finals. This does seem like looking way too far ahead, especially since the Raptors had home-court advantage the last two seasons and lost in the first round both times.

The next seven games—all at home—should provide some clarity as to whether the Raptors can create some separation from the rest of the teams behind them in the standings, or if they'll be fighting for a playoff spot in March and April. The seven-game homestand feels especially important when you realize the Raptors will have a six-game road trip with the All-Star break in between, and will play eight of their 11 games in February on the road.

This is the team's third fourth-game winning streak (in addition to winning the first five games in a row to start the season). The Raptors have an opportunity to go on their first extended win streak of the season. The chances of that happening would be much better if they can get…

Ross, still only 24 years old, is averaging 7.9 points in 22.7 minutes per game, which would be his lowest total since his rookie season. Slotted into a bench role to begin the season, Ross has seen his responsibilities with the team change once again thanks to Carroll's injury, which has pushed him and James Johnson into the starting lineup, depending on matchups.

Even though it feels like Ross will always be an inconsistent player that becomes even more difficult to depend on in the playoffs, young players are so unpredictable that the switch could flip on at any minute. And that's what makes Ross so tantalizing frustrating—with his athleticism and 3-point shooting, he represents another path for the Raptors to increase their chances at advancing beyond the first round. While we wait for that, could it be possible that…

The Raptors have an extra first rounder (from either New York or Denver) due to them this summer, and could include some of their core players (Patrick Patterson, Valanciunas and Carroll, even) in deals to make the money work for an upgrade. There isn't necessarily a superstar player out there that would represent a game changer, and adding a player such as Markieff Morris from Phoenix while subtracting from the current roster might not move the needle too much for this team.

Under Ujiri, the Raptors haven't been a team that's made a huge splash at the deadline. Two seasons ago, the playoff run was entirely a surprise, as the team appeared on its way to tanking after trading Rudy Gay before Lowry spearheaded a second-half turnaround. Last year, the Raptors decided to stand pat, allowing their imbalanced roster to play out the season even though they had one of the best records in the league in the first half. Ujiri has often talked about the Raptors as a team that's still growing, and while there is pressure to win in the playoffs this season, the uncertainty of Carroll's return might discourage the general manager from making a win-now move, especially since the market isn't exactly littered with outstanding talent.

If the Raptors do stand pat, they have a strong enough roster to compete for 50 wins. It also feels as though this might be the team's best chance to finally make some noise in the playoffs. We're halfway toward finding out.