​Friday Film Room: Jameis Winston

When an NFL quarterback throws five touchdowns in a game, we take notice. When that QB is a rookie, we lean forward in our chairs. When that guy is Jameis Winston—a.k.a. controversy incarnate—we almost have to do some film study on him.

Against the Eagles in Week 11, Winston did indeed throw five touchdown passes. In his previous nine games, he hadn't thrown more than two TDs, so we're not losing our mind over the kid's rookie-year play. But I'd say overall my film impressions of Winston have been favorable. He's pretty far along in his development for having played 10 NFL regular-season games. I don't find him ready-for-prime-time in terms of starting him every week as the fantasy playoffs draw near. But I do think he qualifies as a possible week-to-week streamer, and his future looks like it could be pretty bright (provided his off-field history of questionable decisions and/or violence against women doesn't manifest again, which is obviously no sure thing).

Let's start with some on-field criticisms. Back in Week 8 against the Falcons, Winston led the Buccaneers to a win and rushed for a touchdown, but he had too many moments like this:

This is a completion, but Winston tries to throw an interception on what's supposed to be a deep out. Evans is open stepping toward the sideline, but the throw leads him back to the middle of the field; if he doesn't react well to the ball in flight, this is an interception. And in the same game, there was this red-zone trip where Adam Humphries is wide open on a slant that should have resulted in a touchdown. Winston has a clean pocket, can step into the throw, and he just sails it:

Of course, it's easy to pick out individual plays where any QB makes a mistake. While Winston hasn't been accurate enough to be a great player, he's already making fewer poor throws than someone like Blake Bortles is making in his second year. But there are Bortles-esque moments: moments where Winston goes through his progressions, but doesn't trust his eyes. The point of going through progressions, of course, is to arrive at an open receiver; when you do the right thing and still chuck it to a covered receiver, it kind of defeats the purpose:

In this red-zone opportunity Week 9 against the Giants, Winston looks left and then over the middle. Nothing is open, and his third option is Donteea Dye to the right. Dye isn't open, either, but Winston doesn't trust that third read and just chucks it anyway. This is a Bortles special. Jayron Hosley should make the interception and doesn't, but this is another crummy decision by Winston.

But listen, I've started with the bad, but there's a lot of good here, too. Winston has pretty good foot mechanics for a young QB. He doesn't work himself into pretzels that make it hard to throw accurately. And the Bucs haven't needed to "cut the field in half," the way NFL teams do sometimes with young signal callers. You don't see Winston rolling out to one side all that often, which is a trick offensive coordinators use so a young QB can concentrate on just one side of the field. In Cam Newton's rookie year, for instance, the Panthers had him roll out a ton so he wouldn't be tempted to throw in all directions. They just didn't trust Newton the way the Buccaneers already trust Winston.

So let's show you some good stuff! Against the Cowboys in Week 10, I didn't love the Bucs' approach in the first half. Dallas played a single-high safety, and Tampa was slow to adjust: they kept trying long throws to the deep sidelines, but don't really have the speed receivers to separate from tight man coverage. In the second half, though, things got a lot better for Winston:

Stick in there, big fella! This is a middle-zone beater: a deep cross behind the linebackers and in front of the single safety, but it takes guts and a big arm to complete. Combine this with a change in approach that saw Winston throw several accurate short slants to Evans, and suddenly Tampa was able to move the ball.

And then there's just the pure physical freakishness of Winston's arm. You see a guy throw a ball about 30 yards on a rope like this, and you wonder if eventually there will be no way to defend him:

Here's another angle of the same pass, just to give you an idea of the ridiculousness:

Now, clearly when it comes to Jameis Winston, there's the potential for severe off-field worries. His past behavior has been at minimum questionable and probably much worse than that, and his NFL career might be the least important thing derailed if he continues a pattern of stupidity and (possibly) violence. But my task in this column is to address on-field stuff only, and on the field, Winston is ahead of schedule. His rookie tape is significantly better than Derek Carr's was, and if I had to compare his skills to any young QB in the NFL right now, it might be Andrew Luck. That's high praise, and the Bucs don't have the stable of skill weapons around Winston that the Colts have around Luck, but that's the kind of upside we're talking about with Winston. For this year, he's still rough enough around the edges that I'd advise against rolling into your fantasy playoffs with him every week. But for 2016? There's a chance Winston could enter the campaign as a top-15 QB.

Christopher Harris (@HarrisFootball) is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writing Association award winner. He hosts the Harris Football Podcast every weekday. Find it on iTunes, Stitcher, TuneIn and most other podcast apps, as well as at www.HarrisFootball.com.