Villanova Is Winning In Its Own Weird Way, But Can It Last?

At halftime of Saturday night's game against St. John's, Villanova honored the 2006 Wildcats' team that shared the Big East conference regular season title, earned a top seed in the NCAA tournament, and advanced to the Elite Eight. Denver Nuggets guard Randy Foye, a first-team All-American that season, addressed the crowd at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia. Kyle Lowry, Foye's former teammate, delivered a taped message on the scoreboard—the Raptors guard couldn't make it because he was in Toronto, preparing to start in Sunday's NBA All-Star Game.

That squad was one of the best in school history and, in Foye and Lowry, featured the only two NBA first round picks that Villanova has produced since coach Jay Wright arrived in 2001. During that stretch, only two other Wildcats—Dante Cunningham in 2009 and Darrun Hilliard in 2015, if you were curious—have even been second round picks.

This only seems strange because, despite that dearth of top-tier professional talent, Wright's Wildcats have reliably been among the nation's premiere programs. They have made the NCAA tournament in 10 of the past 11 seasons, and for the third consecutive season they have emerged as a national championship contender. And they've done it, again, without any players who seem likely to spend much time in the NBA.

Villanova, at 22-3, is ranked first in the Associated Press and USA Today polls for the first time in school history. The computers favor the Wildcats, too. As of Monday, they were first in the KenPom.com ratings and third in the RPI ratings, behind Kansas and Oklahoma.

Still, fairly or not, questions abound because of Villanova's recent NCAA tournament struggles. In 2014, as the number two seed in the East regional and third-ranked team in the AP poll, the Wildcats lost to Connecticut in the round of 32. They had a similar fate last March. As the number one seed in the East regional and fourth-ranked team in the AP poll, they lost to North Carolina State in the round of 32. Since making the Final Four in 2009, the Wildcats have not been able to make it to the NCAA tournament's second weekend.

This season, they will likely be heavily favored to break that streak, although by this point they surely understand that no one is safe from upsets in March. On Saturday night, they showed what could happen when they're not at their best. At halftime, Villanova led by one and had missed its first 11 three-pointers against a young, reeling St. John's team that had lost its first 12 Big East games. The 18,000-plus fans who had left their warm homes and braved the single-digit temperatures to attend the game surely didn't expect such struggles from the nation's top team.

St. John's was still within five points six minutes into the second half before Villanova went on a 6-0 run, forcing Red Storm coach Chris Mullin to call a 30-second timeout. The crowd came alive, and from there, the Wildcats didn't face much of a challenge. They pulled away for a 73-63 victory, yet they had allowed 11 three-pointers and committed 15 turnovers. It was a win, but it was also precisely the sort of performance that the Villanova faithful have come to dread in March.

"Right now, number one really doesn't mean anything," Wright said. "We always prepare to get our opponents' best game. We've been doing that for the last few years. We talk about that all the time."

Under Wright, the Wildcats have typically won with balanced scoring and tenacious defense—and with players who didn't receive over-the-top attention entering or leaving college. Since Wright took over, Foye is the only Wildcat to average more than 20 points per game in a season and the Wildcats have only signed six McDonald's All-Americans, including just one (freshman guard Jalen Brunson) since 2010.

The formula is no different this season. All five starters—junior guard Josh Hart, senior guard Ryan Arcidiacono, junior forward Kris Jenkins, senior forward Daniel Ochefu and Brunson—are averaging between 10.2 and 15.2 points per game. Among that core, Hart is the only Villanova player whose name appears among Draft Express' top 100 NBA draft prospects; he's ranked 89th. The website's most recent 2016 mock draft has no one from Villanova listed, while its 2017 mock presently has Hart as a late second round pick.

Based on history, the lack of a sure-fire NBA draft pick could hurt the Wildcats' national title aspirations. Since the modern NBA draft began in 1966, every NCAA tournament champion except for the 1987 Indiana team had at least one future NBA first-rounder on its roster, and that Hoosiers' squad had three second round picks, including guard Steve Alford, a two-time first-team All-American. No one on Villanova's roster is expected to be an All-American this season. And yet the record, resumé, and on-court product speak for themselves—and strongly suggest that Villanova is legit.

Especially in what has been a strange college basketball season with no dominant teams, it's hard to dismiss the Wildcats as contenders. Their only losses have come against Oklahoma in Hawaii, at Virginia and against Providence in overtime. Villanova is the sixth team to be ranked first in the AP poll this season, one shy of the record. Last week, seven of the top 10 teams lost a game. Through Sunday's games, Villanova and Virginia were the only two teams in the top 20 of KenPom.com's adjusted offensive and defensive ratings.

More important for the team's chances in March, Villanova's veteran core of Arcidiacono, Ochefu, Hart, and Jenkins are experienced and smart enough not to get caught up in any mid-February hype. "That's not something that we even think about or even talk about," Arcidiacono said of the number one ranking after Saturday night's victory. "It was kind of the same routine, same thing that we always do in the hotel on day of the game and in the walk-through today. I can't say there was any added pressure. It was just another game for us."

Wright also downplayed the Wildcats' top ranking on Saturday, pointing out that his team committed too many turnovers and didn't shoot well enough from deep. It was four weeks until the Big East tournament final in New York and seven weeks until the Final Four in Houston, and there is plenty of work to do until then. "We know we have to keep getting better," Wright said. "We really do."