Sizing up the Raptors before Things Get Real

After Kyle Lowry authored his signature performance of the season, a 43-point, nine-assist effort against Cleveland that included a tiebreaking jumper in the final seconds, he took pains to downplay the win. The Raptors beat the conference-leading Cavaliers: What about it?

"I think we grew tonight, but we've got the team to get better," Lowry said as blandly as possible.

Nine days later, the Raptors blew a double-digit lead—a continuation of a worrisome trend—eventually losing to the Houston Rockets. James Harden eviscerated the Raptors' crumbling perimeter defence, and Corey Brewer, a weak 3-point shooter, went 5-for-9 from deep. "Sometimes the scouting report lies," DeMar DeRozan offered. Translation: Sometimes players who usually do not make shots make them, and you have to live with that.

The Raptors lost, but it was not some massive indictment. Eight days after that, Toronto lost its ninth consecutive game to the Bulls. Again, the importance of the individual result was played down. Remember, the Raptors swept the season series against Washington last year, and that meant less than nothing.

With all of those results and reactions in mind, these Raptors have become an existentialist's dream team: Nothing matters. Or rather, nothing will matter until the playoffs. Based on the way the last two seasons have ended, the regular season was always going to feel a little less urgent, a little less worthy of analysis and insight than we are used to. Even as the Raptors have climbed to heights few expected, poised to blow past the 50-win mark for the first time in franchise history and maybe even steal the conference's top seed from Cleveland, there is a desire to wait until April and hopefully May to draw any conclusions. Those accomplishments, after all, are going to feel hollow without at least advancing to the second round for the first time in a decade and a half.

The last month and a bit, however, has been enlightening—at least a little bit—about whether or not the Raptors will be able to ultimately make something of this year. Since the all-star break, the Raptors have played every team realistically in the Eastern Conference playoff race save for Charlotte, and have gone 5-4. (That improves to 5-2 if you exclude Toronto's losses to Detroit and Boston without Lowry, who was rested for both games.) Over the course of the year, the Raptors are 15-10 against those nine teams, with only the Bulls consistently stumping them. That inflates to 18-10 if you include the Wizards, currently 10th in the conference.

Yet, a look down the standings to peer at some potential first-round opponents is scary when viewed through an advance-or-bust prism. It is not just Chicago, either. Indiana has Paul George, the type of long-armed wing player who could give DeRozan fits. DeRozan shot just 9-for-26 in an overtime win in Indiana earlier in the month. The Pistons bomb 3-pointers around Andre Drummond, and the Raptors have struggled to defend beyond the arc this year. The Wizards, should they creep back into lower seeds, have already proven what they can do to the Raptors. And if Toronto cannot get DeMarre Carroll back on the floor and in the flow of things before the playoffs, they are going to be more unsettled than most contenders tend to be.

So, how do the Raptors stack up in the Eastern Conference, regardless of what the wins and losses say? Are fans right to be anxious about a first-round matchup, despite the fact that the top two seeds in both conferences are 36-4 in first-round series over the last 10 years?

Over the course of the season, the Raptors rank second in the Eastern Conference in offensive efficiency and seventh on the other end. Since the all-star break, they are second offensively (they were ahead of Cleveland until an ugly night in Boston on Wednesday) and ninth defensively. That defensive slippage is worrying on the surface, since it is a stark reminder of how the Raptors fell apart last year. But it's different for a number of reasons.

As pointed out by ESPN's Kevin Pelton at this month's edition of Hoop Talks, the Raptors are allowing the second-highest 3-point percentage of the league's 30 teams, and 3-point defence tends to be a fairly random statistic that says little about a team's actual ability. (Nonetheless, that eight of the 10 worst 3-point defences in the league appear doomed to miss the playoffs is concerning.)

As well, the Raptors' defensive answers might be on their roster, unlike last year. Carroll's return, assuming it happens, will shore up some of the team's issues with bigger wing players. Meanwhile, the team has been stingy when Bismack Biyombo has been on the floor instead of Jonas Valanciunas, allowing just 102.2 points per 100 possessions compared to 112.2 with the starter since the all-star break. Splitting their minutes more evenly, as well as giving even more of Luis Scola's minutes to Patrick Patterson, should help. Rotations tend to shrink in the postseason, anyway.

Somewhat counter-intuitively, the offensive end might be the best reason to doubt the Raptors' chances. Lowry and DeRozan have actually become more dependent on getting to the free throw line for their offence in the second half of the season. Lowry is up to 9.1 free throw attempts per game post-all-star break from 5.9, and DeRozan has gone to 10.1 from 8.3.

As we saw last spring, it can be harder to draw a foul in the playoffs, especially on the perimeter. (The Raptors averaged 21.5 free throws per game against the Wizards in April, after shooting 24.6 per game during the regular season.) Again, Carroll's presence could make the Raptors a more varied team, but the thought of Toronto's star guards trying to get the benefit of the doubt against physical defensive teams like Indiana and Chicago in the first round or Boston and Charlotte in the second round is a concern.

Ultimately, though, the case for the Raptors this year versus last year is very easy to make: Lowry has been better in the second half than the first, with no signs of the late-season swoon that made him easy prey for John Wall last year. His numbers are up across the board since the all-star break, even as his workload has gone up a smidge, too.

Lowry is a superstar, and he has played like it all year long. In fact, he might be the most impactful player in the Eastern Conference this season. At his best, he is what separates the Raptors from the pack, and is a good reason to invest in the best season in franchise history, such as it is.