Fantasy Football The Costanza Method Way, Week 5

This week, The New York Times reported that a DraftKings employee had not only released proprietary lineup data to the public, but had also placed second—earning $350,000 in the process—in a big weekly league at rival Daily Fantasy Sports site FanDuel. In response, the two sites released a joint statement in which they disavowed speculation by media outlets that incidents like this could erode the integrity of the (very narrowly legal) enterprise. Although major partners such as ESPN have begun to distance themselves from previously ubiquitous on-air integration (however provisionally or superficially), and the New York Attorney General's office has announced its intention to vet both sites' data security practices, the games go on.

Understandably, this series of events will have many people questioning whether the slim hope they had of winning big ever existed at all. But for players who have already adopted the Costanza Method, the claim (now with lawsuits!) that DraftKings employee Ethan Haskell could have used private player ownership data to cash in at rival FanDuel isn't just a non-issue, it's a sign from above! If you were taking me on faith last week when I said that the only way to win bigger DFS tournaments is to assemble a roster of underutilized players, now you have all the evidence you need. Even the, uh, pros do it.

Ethical grossness aside, there is something reassuring—that's not the right word, and I'm not sure what the right word is—about seeing DFS employees accused of weaponizing the Costanza Method. That approach, to reiterate, is to select almost exclusively players that 1) have a good chance at putting up points and 2) will be on your roster and relatively few others. The goal is to pick the sleepers, and that's pretty much it. Keep in mind that we are price-agnostic here—there is no "value" in picking a player who performs well on a dollar-per-point basis if everyone else did, too. Our goal is to win the tournament, not cash $16 in 49,756th place. Winning with a $39,000 salary nets you the same prize as winning with tricked-out $50,000 roster, and all you have to do is win.

Last Week's Fistpumps and Faceplants

Andy Dalton - 21.44pts, 6th QB +

Allen Hurns - 31.6pts, 3rd WR ++

Charles Clay - 23.1pts, 3rd TE ++

Lardarius Green - 15.3pts, 6th TE +

Arian Foster - 5.5pts, 41st RB --

Lance Dunbar - 5.4pts, 43rd RB --

Mike Evans - 6.2pts, 63rd WR --

All in all, a fairly solid week. Foster and Dunbar were limited by injury, the latter suffering a torn ACL on the second half kickoff, and Evans was the wrong Bucs receiver to back, as his teammate Vincent Jackson had the big day, with 10 catches for 147 yards and a touchdown. But you were well into the black if you took a chance on Hurns and Clay, who were both on DraftKings Millionaire Maker winner ChipotleAddict's $1.2 million-winning roster.

This week is our first with four teams on a bye, which will shorten the field in the way it will be for the next two months. There's still plenty of Costanzaing to be done.

Jameis Winston, QB, Bucs - $5,100

Jay Cutler, QB, Bears - $5,300

I know, I know, but remember that touchdowns are worth three times as much as interceptions. Cutler does get the 32nd-ranked pass defense this week in the Chiefs, and so will probably not be flying under the radar as much as we would normally hope, but the man has a stink on him, and that's got to turn people off. He just looks bad. Not unattractive, mind you, but bad. He's the kind of guy who would let his dog shit in your yard and look right at you while he did it. What a bastard. Put him on your team.

As for Winston, he has looked very un-Mariota at times this year, but last week's performance was admirable despite the grim weather circumstances. The perception of him right now is that he's godawful, when in fact he's quite mediocre. That delta is good enough for lots of people to ignore him, but not us.

Mike Vick, QB, Steelers - $5,100

That Chipotle fan won over a million bucks with Blake Bortles as his QB last week. You've got to think outside the box on this stuff, I'm telling you.

Joseph Randle, RB, Cowboys - $6,000

Randle is coming off a totally janky 11 carry performance that could have looked a hell of a lot worse if his dogpile goal-line dive hadn't been ruled a touchdown in the end. Worse, he gets a Patriots team this week that will, in all likelihood, blow the doors off the Dallas offense, which is still maimed beyond recognition. According to traditional wisdom, a large deficit means that Dallas will be forced to throw early and often. But remember that traditional wisdom also strongly suggests that stepping on a crack in the sidewalk will negatively impact your mother's health, orthopedically speaking. Just take the guy no one else is taking.

Alfred Morris, RB, Washington - $4,000

Boobie Dixon, RB, Bills - $3,000

Here are two more guys I feel very confident in asserting will be scarce in tournaments this week, and for totally opposite reasons. Morris has been usurped at least once this year by more dynamic backups, and yet continues to notch a more than satisfactory number of carries; he had 17 last week. He faces a real squishy run defense in the Falcons, and yet the overall perception seems to indicate there will not be a clamor for his services.

On the other hand, Boobie Dixon is the Lou Gehrig in his own Wally Pipp scenario, hopping ahead of both LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams on the Bills RB depth chart, and apparently earning a start at Tennessee on Sunday. Is he any good? I have no idea. I know more about rare Earth magnets than I know about damn Boobie Dixon. But I do know that at least 75% of the people looking for him will give up after their search returns no results for "Anthony Dixon," so he's a good gamble.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks - $7,100

Here's a high-dollar pick for the folks who have scrimped and saved on the other parts of their roster. Lynch has looked un-Lynchian by any measure so far this year, and is yet to score or eclipse 75 yards in any contest. Moreover, he has been beset by injury, missing Week 4 and is questionable heading into Week 5 against the Bengals. Who on Earth would pay a premium for such a scratched and dented version of Beast Mode? Right.

Golden Tate, WR, Lions - $5,200

Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions - $7,400

Both of the Lions' top two receivers have cratered through the first quarter of the season, having lost about $2,000 in combined salary value and four "real life" games to go along with it. Tate in particular seemed frustrated by the Seahawks' aggressive coverage on Monday night, although it was Johnson who ultimately felt the brunt of it. In their next matchup with the Cardinals, these two will face a pass defense that is stronger in some ways than the one they just failed against, which means, for us, there is no better time to buy.

Kendall Wright, WR, Titans - $5,400

Completely speculative hunch without a shred of evidence of the week: entrants will forget very good players whose small-market teams are just coming off a bye week.

Brandin Cooks, WR, Saints - $5,900

The demise of Drew Brees has been exhaustively chronicled, and rightfully so. The rapid descents of the Saints, their wunderkind coach, and their stalwart QB are all wrapped up together as kindred consequences of NFL Salary Cap Hell. Granted, Brees does not seem at all like himself, but he isn't nearly as decrepit as Peyton Manning, who is three years older and presently has the arm strength of Martin Short.

When Brees is healthy, the Saints should be able to at least compete in the suddenly scrappy NFC South, but unfortunately, in place of Jimmy Graham, Kenny Stills, and Pierre Thomas, among others, New Orleans has a handful of magic beans. Look, Brees doesn't have much help, save for Cooks, who has looked perfectly mediocre and is injured to boot. Buy low, sell slightly less low with him this week.

Owen Daniels, TE, Broncos - $2,700

Last week we hit paydirt by managing to find two tight ends who don't sell Zubaz pants on their personal websites, and whose matchups looked to be better than average according to Football Outsiders DVOA data. This week, we're throwing some trend-watching into the mix. Daniels has two TDs in his last two outings, but they've come with some really weakpiss yardage totals. This week, Daniels will travel to Oakland, whose team avoids tight ends like they're the unvaccinated kid at the park. I like him to get free and fuck some shit up.

Jaguars D/ST - $2,700

Giants D/ST - $2,900

I'm not quite sure where we are on D/ST at this point. The difference between the average defense's fantasy total and the best of the week is rather slim compared to the other positions, and so is the difference in salary. The Broncos, Cardinals, and Seahawks seem to be the most reliable performers so far, and their relatively low cost makes them quite attainable for most shoppers. As a result, I don't know for certain that there is much advantage in aiming for a defense that won't show up on most other rosters. That said, the Jags and Giants have a chance to put up a few this week if you're a few hundos short.

There is a certain type of bizarre situational stat that is the special province of handicappers and know-it-alls. This type of "the Packers are 0-377 against the spread since 1974 if their opponent flew more than 600 miles the previous week" anti-factoid and the millions like it on the radio or television—mostly from people who would be very happy to sell you more "information"—are, quantifiably, bunk and hokum. Handicappers peddle this kind of junk for the same reasons casinos tell you what numbers most recently came up on the roulette wheel. The advice they distill from it is every bit as valuable, which is to say it has no value.

I strongly recommend that you disregard this statistical noise from people who purport to know everything, and listen to me instead, a big goofy man who enthusiastically admits that he knows nothing at all. Here are this week's Call-Ups, the players who are probably on your bench and are ready to take things to the next level.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions

Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals

The state of the quarterback in the NFL is such that the Bills' Tyrod Taylor, an unproven passer on his third running back with a cavalcade of totally unknown quantities at receiver is dramatically more popular than these two former favorites, who just happen to be throwing to Megatron and AJ Green. You could say that I am in favor of a regression to the mean.

Marcus Mariota, QB, Titans

That's my quarterback!

Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears

Would it please you at all to know that I inadvertently ignored my own advice on Sunday, broke with the Costanza Method, and let Doug Martin rack up 30-odd points on my bench? I will not make the same mistake with Jeffery, who has been every bit as uninspiring as Martin was before his (useless, for me) breakout.

Nelson Agholor, WR, Eagles

The Saints are not only the worst pass defense in the league, they're the worst pass defense in any conceivable league. They are the worst pass defense in the NBA, and it's not really close.

Allen Hurns, WR, Jaguars
Tavon Austin, WR, Rams

It definitely feels more true of Hurns than Austin, but I don't think either guy is a fluke. Hurns is the more conventional talent of the two, but has a shakier QB. Austin is a freestyle athelte stuck in a Rams offense that is dedicated to going exactly the speed limit at all times, but continues to find a way to score touchdowns. Which, as any expert can tell you, are useful in accumulating fantasy points.

Dion Lewis, RB, Patriots

Don't forget about this little scamp. Brady and Belichick like Lewis for many of the same reasons they liked Shane Vereen, and I could easily see him scoring 32,000 touchdowns against an impressively smelly Dallas defense.

Antonio Andrews, RB, Titans

The Titans are a mess in more ways than one, and their backfield seems to be the epitome of the new normal of split to hell and ineffective workloads. Andrews is the favored toter for the time being, and he's got enough pop to be effective against a Buffalo rush D that's unexpectedly among the worst in DVOA. Plus, what kind of name is Bishop Sankey, anyway? That makes no sense. Dude sounds like a Marvel villain that carries a cane.

Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers

He's back, baby!