Friday Film Room: Todd Gurley

This just in: Todd Gurley is good at football.

You probably don't need a recap of Gurley's athletic life to date, but just in case: his production was borderline insane at the University of Georgia (44 TDs and 3,900 scrimmage yards in 30 games); he tore the ACL in his left knee last November; the Rams selected him 10th overall this spring anyway, and now he's accounted for at least 159 scrimmage yards in three consecutive NFL games.

Sitting down to write a paean to Gurley isn't a challenge. Fantasy owners who took the plunge on him in the middle of the sixth round this summer—on average, he was the 24th running back selected—are a happy lot. If you've enjoyed playing him in DFS because he's been so inexpensive, get ready for his price tag to rise. His numbers are, in short, awesome.

But there are other running backs with awesome numbers. Devonta Freeman has unbelievable numbers. After back-to-back highly so-so seasons, Chris Johnson is on his way to a 1,300-yard campaign. The foundation of my approach as a football analyst is to not be entirely swayed by numbers, because in football numbers often lie. (An example: heading into Thursday night's game, the Dolphins' Lamar Miller led all running backs in average yards before contact. Wow! Except if you remove his 85-yard touchdown scamper from Week 7 on which he was thoroughly untouched by a disinterested-looking Texans defense, he was 18th. Not-so-wow!) So rather than reading box scores and then retrofitting a realization that "Oh, my goodness, Todd Gurley must be amazing!" let's do it the other way around. Let's talk about why what we see on tape is an indicator that this is no fluke. In other words: What's different about Gurley that doesn't make me skeptical about him in the longer term, the way I am, for example, about Freeman? Or, to put it yet another way, why won't Todd Gurley just turn out to be Zac Stacy?

What I'm looking for on film is multiplicity. Can a runner get you fantasy points several different ways? In the case of someone like Freeman, his modus operandi is usually quickness and speed, because he's 5'8" and there are some plays he can't make work unless his blocking is perfect. In the case of someone like Stacy, it's more likely to be power; at 224 pounds he's a compact bull with decent speed for his size but without great acceleration or elusiveness. The reason Gurley is going to be great is that he does everything, and he's 6'1" and 227 pounds.

First, there are his rocket boosters. It's not just that Gurley has great top-end speed—remember, he didn't test out at the NFL Combine because of his knee injury—but he can also put thought into action and get to his top gear quickly. Here's a Week 4 run against the Cardinals:

Note the bad paths taken by two Arizona defenders: Jerraud Powers (#25), who misjudges Gurley's acceleration and dives futilely, and Rashad Johnson (#26), who's playing center field and should be able to meet Gurley at a natural downfield point but who misjudges where Gurley will be and barely lays a glove on him.

Here's a run last week against the Browns that displays Gurley's roadrunner gifts, which remind me of nothing so much as Adrian Peterson:

Breaking defensive end Xavier Cooper's tackle is impressive, but as Gurley hits the 50-yard-line and cuts it up, his legs are a blur.

Of course, speed is typically the domain of the smaller back, and I've certainly not yet shown you any plays of which Freeman or Justin Forsett isn't capable. The thing to remember about Gurley, though, is he's making moves like this and accelerating like this carrying 20 to 30 pounds more than your typical NFL speed back. So you'll also get runs like this:

Gurley's prescribed hole is plugged up twice, and four defenders get their mitts on him before they can slam him to the turf, and only after he's gotten a first down. He's a thumper, too.

And while 74 career NFL carries isn't a heavy enough workload to render final judgments about such things, Gurley also appears to have excellent vision, as he shows on this modest run in Week 5 against Green Bay:

Those are two hard cuts that Gurley makes not because the playbook calls for them but because of what he sees: first defensive end Jayrone Elliott (#91) blocks his path left, then B.J. Raji (#90) is in the way of his cut-back right. Gurley sees all this and makes a weaving run through traffic that bodes well for his vision.

Listen, I don't think the Rams are very good. Nick Foles is a below-average quarterback, and the offensive line has some fine moments but often doesn't get much push. Gurley has gotten stuffed (gaining zero or negative yardage) on 17 of his 74 carries and has gained two yards or fewer on 33 of his runs, and we're not talking about Barry Sanders jitterbugging around behind the line trying to hit a big one on every play. Often Gurley just finds defenders choking him off in the backfield. As his game tape proliferates around the NFL, defenses will do their best to take him away and let other skill players beat them, and that will probably lead to some fallow fantasy production here and there for Gurley. They won't all be 159-plus scrimmage-yard games.

But it's the combination of size, speed, and vision—all of which are already on abundant display—that will smooth out the rookie's rough patches and make him a superstar. Think about it: Knowing what you know right now, who would draft ahead of Gurley in 2016? I grant you Le'Veon Bell. After that? Adrian Peterson will be 31, Matt Forte will be 30 and potentially with a new team, Jamaal Charles and Arian Foster will be returning from major surgeries, Eddie Lacy is struggling. Meanwhile, Gurley has the kind of upside you dream about.

Christopher Harris (@HarrisFootball) is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writing Association award winner. He hosts the Harris Football Podcast every weekday. Find it on iTunes, Stitcher, TuneIn and most other podcast apps, as well as at www.HarrisFootball.com.