Raptors' Offseason Could Play out a Number of Ways

Even before the draft and upcoming free agency period, the Toronto Raptors started the process of shuffling the decks within the organization in an attempt to move past an embarrassing first round sweep to the Washington Wizards in April. After general manager Masai Ujiri placed head coach Dwane Casey "under evaluation" at his year-end press conference, the Raptors have removed two assistant head coaches—Bill Bayno and Tom Sterner—from Casey's staff. By all accounts, it appears Casey will return, which settles one question, while creating another: what kind of team will he be coaching next season?

After losing four straight playoff games to the Wizards, Casey admitted his team was never committed on the defensive end this season, and the results showed, as the Raptors fell from a top ten team in defensive rating during 2013-14 season to a bottom ten team this past season. Almost every championship team in the past two decades has been in the top ten in defensive rating, so if Casey's evaluation is to continue next season, you have to imagine the emphasis will be for Ujiri to give him some better individual defenders to see if he can produce improved results.

The Raptors are more than one player away from vaulting into legitimate contender status, so they're not in a position to enter this summer with the intention of simply filling one particular need (finding an elite two-way wing defender, for example). The approach should be to continue to accumulate talent, and test the market to see whether players on the current roster could extract greater value as a trade asset. It should be fair to presume that no player is untouchable, not the starting backcourt of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, or the potential building blocks in Jonas Valanciunas and Terrence Ross. The list goes on.

This is not to say a significant trade will happen. Ujiri, like any smart GM, will only part with his core players if there's a fair exchange of talent. The Raptors will have around $15 million in cap space with the possibility of opening room to offer a maximum level contract in free agency, to say, an unrestricted free agent like Paul Millsap, a player that's been coveted by the fan base.

First, the Raptors will have to decide what to do with their own unrestricted free agents, a list that includes Amir Johnson, Lou Williams, Chuck Hayes, Tyler Hansbrough, Landry Fields and Greg Stiemsma. Johnson and Williams represent two decisions which will shape the summer for the Raptors. It has already been reported that the reigning Sixth Man of the Year is expected to receive offers up to four years and $35 million on the open market. That price and length of contract is probably too high for the Raptors the way they're currently constructed. Having a perimeter scorer off the bench is a nice luxury to have, but not at that price with this team still far away from contention, and not with Williams' inefficient approach, which is a hit or miss proposition better served at an affordable price. Johnson is a decision that represents a "fork in the road" moment for how much the franchise values chemistry. The power forward is one of the most well-liked players in the locker room and in the community, but will command around $10 million annually on the open market. Again, do the Raptors want to commit that money to a player who will likely be on the decline by the latter half of his new contract?

After those decisions are made, the Raptors will scour the free-agent market for upgrades. Millsap, as mentioned, would be a great fit for this team, and provide it with the type of versatile, top-end front court talent it currently lacks on the roster. There may be value in the restricted free agent market, as well, with names like Tobias Harris and Cory Joseph as potential targets depending on what their prices end up settling at. Lowry, an All-Star this season, is coming off a horrific playoff performance. Despite dealing with injuries, his trade value may be at an all-time low, but could he, or DeRozan, help the Raptors acquire a combination of assets that might present an upgrade? Ujiri will explore all his options, and the trade market should open up once teams miss out on their primary free-agent targets.

There's also the matter of Valanciunas and Ross, both of whom are eligible for extensions this summer. If they're not signed to a new contract, the duo will become restricted free agents in the summer of 2016. Ross had a disappointing third season, although DeRozan was once in the same position and blossomed into an above-average player. It would make sense for Toronto to forego an extension for Ross, and evaluate him next season, delaying the decision to make a long-term commitment to him for next summer.

As for Valanciunas, this is much trickier. He has room for improvement with his limited offensive game and the ability to defend against smaller lineups and in pick-and-rolls on defense. Casey recently lamented the "end of centers" in the NBA, and has not trusted Valanciunas in fourth-quarter situations on the defensive end. Unless there's a significant shift in team philosophy, we may never find out the true ceiling of the Raptors' starting center without a coaching change. And that makes the situation complicated in terms of placing a value on Valanciunas, in relation to where the league is headed and what role this team has for him long term.

So, there are many dominos in play, and one of them will need to fall first to dictate where everything else goes. But it feels like a wide open summer for the Raptors, who do have a bit of roster flexibility to make significant moves if they choose to head down that path. Another possibility: it's a quiet summer. They bid farewell to Johnson and Williams, shift Patrick Patterson into the starting lineup, and sign a few relatively cheap free agents to replenish the depth. In this scenario, the Raptors would retain some of their cap space for next summer, when the salary cap will soar thanks to the league's new television deal, and the Raptors will attempt to at least get in a room with Kevin Durant to make a pitch, which would represent progress for the franchise. At that point, Valanciunas and Ross—assuming they're not extended this summer—would be restricted free agents, and the Raptors would not have significant salary committed aside from Lowry, DeRozan and Patterson, which would allow Ujiri to retool the team with an increased cap.

That scenario might end up playing out, so for fans who want the roster to be gutted after such an abrupt end to the season, it might be wise to prepare for a mostly inactive summer. Whether that happens or not, the Raptors will be an intriguing team to watch over the next few months, for what they might do, or for their decision to not do much of anything. Either way, we'll know soon enough exactly how much Ujiri is attached to this current core.