How Atlanta's Sputtering Pass Offense Ruined Their 5-0 Start

Five weeks into the season, the Atlanta Falcons were looking like a certainty to make the playoffs. They'd romped through the NFC East and thumped the Texans. The remaining schedule didn't look very difficult: the rest of the AFC South, a few games against Tampa Bay and a reeling New Orleans, and even a matchup against the cupcake 49ers.

Then the Falcons lost four of their next five games. They lost to Blaine Gabbert. They lost to Matt Hasselbeck at home. They only beat the Titans because backup Tennessee quarterback Zach Mettenberger spent the second half getting crushed. While it's true that most of these losses came in close games, they were close losses to bad teams—teams a true NFL contender should beat easily. Atlanta has basically become an honorary AFC South member.

When you look at what's gone wrong for the Atlanta Falcons, there's a very long and detailed explana—actually, no, it's just that their passing attack has tumbled. That's all you really need to know.

Struggling against Indianapolis on Sunday, quarterback Matt Ryan averaged 6.1 yards per attempt and was pick-sixed for what would wind up being the decisive score.

Atlanta's passing offense woes are pretty simple to explain. Tony Gonzalez is retired. Roddy White went from old and reliable to just plain old overnight, which left star wideout Julio Jones and bust-out fantasy football RB1 Devonta Freeman playing with a bunch of young, unproven players and some castoffs.

With Jones nursing a hamstring injury and unable to really get downfield, Atlanta's passing attack narrowed in focus over those past few weeks:

Jones looked, if not healthy, at least more like himself against the Colts on Sunday, but Freeman's concussion in that game narrowed down the passing game for Atlanta. Two of their touchdowns went to fullback Patrick DiMarco. White was targeted nine times, second on the team, for a grand total of 24 yards. You'd only know that Jacob Tamme was a big a part of an offense if you were a fantasy player in a PPR league.

This is something of an interesting dilemma. Teams are increasingly inclined to trust their young receivers. That's the reason that potentially solid receivers with injury question marks like Michael Crabtree sit in the free agent market well into the summer. Atlanta is not the first team this season that I've determined to have problems at receiver. They're not even the first NFC South team.

It does make some sense that the Falcons didn't address the receiver position this offseason. There's no easy way to tell when a player like White is going to hit the end of his career. Atlanta was picking in the top 10 last season. They had a ton of defensive holes to address, and rightfully spent most of their draft capital improving things there. They also didn't have a ton of cap space.

The Falcons did select ECU's Justin Hardy in the third round, but they were projecting Hardy to be a top-of-the-line slot receiver. The Falcons, in making that selection, were trying to create the next Wes Welker. (Yes, we just applied that tag to someone who isn't white.) But the Falcons needed way more than a slot receiver. They didn't have much established receiver depth in case White regressed, and there were indications that could happen given his 2014 season.

What has happened here isn't a ridiculous or silly result. The Falcons have been felled by a problem they should have seen coming. The inconsistent production shouldn't be surprising. Leonard Hankerson was a bust for years in Washington, despite getting tons of chances, although, to be fair, his hamstring has been an issue all year.

All this has resulted in Atlanta being on par with other inefficient pass offenses like Seattle and Tampa. However, Seattle may improve if they involve their tight ends. Tampa, which has been held back by injuries to wideout Vincent Jackson and tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins, has already improved.

Beyond Hardy emerging as a legitimate threat, it's hard to create a situation where Atlanta's receiving corps suddenly improves. They're not going to be as bad as they were when Jones was dealing with his hamstring injury, but they're not going to be as good as they were during the first month of the season, either.