There's Always Next Year: Miami Dolphins

Every year that Joe Philbin was in charge in Miami, fans could count on the Dolphins to get hyped as contenders and then to reveal themselves as something significantly less than that. As it turned out, 2015 was no exception.

The Dolphins entered the season as gambling favorites to finish second in the AFC East and ended it 6-10. None of the receiving weapons they brought in could mesh with Ryan Tannehill. Free agent mega-signing Ndamukong Suh was inconsistent and battled accusations that he "went rogue." To be fair to Suh, it seemed like everyone else quit on defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle, too. It was a bad season, in other words, and in a familiar way.

2016 is a new season. Philbin and the old coaching staff is gone. Interim head coach Dan Campbell will spout his toughness clichés in New Orleans next season. General manager Dennis Hickey "parted ways" with the Dolphins. (I love all these new synonyms for "fired.")

The Dolphins remain an interesting team on paper, provided you believe in their new leadership. Let's see where we're at with that.

Coach and Quarterback Confidence Rating: 5/10

Ryan Tannehill took a major step back in 2015. His DVOA dropped from 4.1 percent in 2014 to his previously established performance threshold of negative numbers. He's fallen out of the top 25 in DVOA and DYAR three times in four seasons. Miami is more or less married to Tannehill for this season, as his base salary in 2016 is guaranteed. After that, there's not much in the record to recommend keeping him. The Dolphins would be smart to consider finding a replacement early in the draft should one fall into their laps.

That said, the last quarterback I thought came into a season with such inarguable lame-duck status was Jay Cutler, and Miami's new head coach, Adam Gase, got the most out of Cutler last year. The Bears signal-caller was ninth in DVOA despite top receiver Alshon Jeffery missing time. It was a pretty startling display of effectiveness considering Cutler's career and the talent around him.

Will Gase be able to translate that to Miami's passing game as a head coach? I have no idea, but I like Gase a lot more than the average head coach hire over the past few years. After accounting for his work replacing Philbin's poor game management, anything he gets out of Tannehill will be icing on the cake.

Key Offseason Decision: Will Lamar Miller be back?

The Dolphins coaching staff didn't seem to realize it last season, but Lamar Miller was the best weapon they had. He received just 194 carries because offensive coordinator Bill Lazor was preoccupied with passing.

Miller is now a free agent and the Dolphins, unfortunately, are kind of up against it this offseason in terms of the salary cap. That's not to say that they don't have avenues to bring back Miller—running backs don't often get serious money in free agency these days. It's just going to involve a lot of cutting and purging. In the NFL, that sounds unhealthier than it is.

Major Free Agents: OG Shelley Smith, DE Olivier Vernon, RB Lamar Miller, WR Rishard Matthews

Vernon broke out a few years ago, and has been a poster child for "secretly good defensive ends" ever since. The Dolphins would probably like to have the franchise tag available for him, but it'd take a lot of cost-cutting to make it happen. Without that, he may command a high enough price that Miami won't be able to compete.

Matthews was the offense's most reliable receiver around the middle of the season. While he's not going to command big bucks, he's still just 26. I could see him enjoying a Kevin Walter-type career on a second team that could use a target like him.

Cap Situation: -$2,385,569—30th in the NFL

The big boom of Ndamukong Suh's monster contract crashes against the cap this year. Miami's top defender has a $28 million cap hit and a $23 million base salary that is entirely guaranteed.

The Dolphins do have a lot of avenues to get under. They could even get way under, should they want to sign their free agents back. The nearly certain cuts are tight end Jordan Cameron and edge rusher Quinton Coples. The two combine for about $15 million in cap relief. From there, the Dolphins must weigh releasing Cameron Wake, a great player who is now 33 and trying to recover from a torn Achilles. They'll sever ties with the irrelevant Greg Jennings and his $4 million salary.

While I think those four are pretty settled, I could also see the Dolphins parting with Brent Grimes to save $6.5 million. And while I wouldn't do this, losing both Branden Albert and Mike Pouncey could give the Dolphins some cap relief, too.

The Suh contract puts the Dolphins in a short-term bind, but their long-term outlook is fine. Tannehill won't be making bank in 2017 unless he really turns it around next season. Miami has plenty of flexibility in cuts to make a roster work for 2016.

They need to operate carefully here, though. It's easy to perform cap surgery and come out with a roster that can't play up to potential, and that's the last thing the Dolphins need after the listless Philbin Era.