Expectations Must Be Tempered, but Don't Count out Marcus Stroman

"Panning out like we planned it out."

That was Marcus Stroman, the Blue Jays' ace in the hole, in a tweet Tuesday, after he threw a 40-pitch simulated game Monday while rehabbing in Dunedin, Florida. You don't need to be a Blue Jays fan to know what the injured pitcher—a rookie sensation last year, who was felled by a knee injury in spring training that was supposed to have cost him his entire season—is talking about.

While Stroman's tendency throughout this injury and recovery process has been to be as upbeat as imaginable—so many bright-eyed tweets at the beginning of gruelling days of workouts and schooling, as he took the opportunity to complete his degree at Duke University this summer (while rehabbing with their top-notch medical staff)—to the point where it's hard to believe he's a reliable source on the matter. As far as anyone outside of the organization can tell, he continues to check off every box, vault over every obstacle, and is now beginning to cause genuine excitement for what could be an imminent return.

"My pitches feel great," he told Sportsnet following Monday's outing. "I was throwing all through the rehab process. I kept my pitches pretty sharp and was always practising, spinning the ball, and throwing my changeup throughout the entire summer so my pitches are ready to go. My knee is ready to go and it's just a matter of getting the pitch count up."

Of course, his knee isn't necessarily quite ready to go, in the absolute sense. He's been throwing with a knee brace on—it's evident underneath his uniform in the video of Monday's session made available by Sportsnet, and he even tweeted a picture of himself as he was strapping it on—and while that's certainly allowed, and probably a smart choice, it likely won't allay the fears of those who worry that the Jays may be rushing their young star back into high-pressure action too soon. Or those who wonder just how much anybody should expect of him, anyway.

Confidence is key. #HDMH pic.twitter.com/xC8jHitTzc
— Marcus Stroman (@MStrooo6) August 21, 2015

It may be hard to remember—especially after a summer of quiet hope that he could eventually ride in to save the Jays' pitching staff, a spring where he was being groomed to be the club's ace, and a winter in which the baseball world marvelled at his repertoire and what it made possible—but Stroman is capable of disappointing us.

In the spring of 2014, with a chance to go north with the club had he sparkled enough, Stroman struggled. He ended up allowing 21 hits and 16 earned runs in 11 innings before being sent back to minor league camp, despite some success early on. And when he was first called up to the big leagues in early May, he struggled again. Working as a reliever, he allowed nine earned runs and 13 hits in just 6 1/3 innings.

Of course, we all know how the rest of the season went: he was spectacular. Mostly.

Stroman actually had a bit of a blip in the middle of the 2014 season, allowing five earned runs in three of four starts during the month of August, failing to get out of the first inning in one of those, and lasting only three innings in another. One can afford such stretches, however, when you consider that from his recall May 31 until the end of July he posted a 2.12 ERA (2.79 FIP, 3.19 xFIP), with nearly a strikeout per inning, only two walks per nine, a nifty groundball rate (48.9%), and none of the home run troubles it was feared might plague him. And then, in the six starts following that rough patch, he might have been even better: a 2.56 ERA (2.12 FIP, 2.49 xFIP), with just 7.5 strikeouts per nine, but fewer than one walk per nine innings, an even tinier home run per fly ball rate than before, and an elite-level groundball rate (62.5%).

The reasons for the excitement are abundantly clear, in other words—especially with obvious questions about Drew Hutchison, who is currently in Triple-A (though scheduled to start for the Jays on Saturday) and perhaps some sudden questions about Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey, who have both been roughed up in their last couple of starts.

As key veterans, Dickey and Buehrle are highly unlikely to lose their jobs at any point, but if the 2014 version of Stroman saunters in following his next sim game (scheduled for 55 pitches Friday) and one or two rehab starts, it's going to give the Jays their best pitcher not named David Price, and is going to force them to find a spot in the rotation for him.

But that's if he even gets there. With the knee brace, and the potential for rust, and the fact that even the smallest setback could quickly end this experiment that's got such little margin for error, he's hardly there yet. With how everything has gone so far, though, you'd be crazy to count him out.

He's certainly not counting himself out—not this whole time—and maybe, ultimately, that's what ends up mattering most.