NFL Head Coaches on the Hot Seat in 2016

The NFL season is still months away from kickoff, but it's never too soon to talk about which coaches are going to get fired. I've ranked and categorized all 32 head coaches according to the likelihood that they make it through the 2016 season with their jobs intact, from Belichickian coach-for-life to hot seats literally on fire.

32. Bill Belichick, New England Patriots

Short of some sort of horrifying off-field scandal, Belichick can coach the Patriots for however long he wants at this point. I have to come up with some incredibly cynical scenarios to see a) the Patriots faltering and b) him taking the heat for it rather than an aging Tom Brady.

31. Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks
30. Gary Kubiak, Denver Broncos
29. Ron Rivera, Carolina Panthers
28. Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers
27. Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs
26. Bruce Arians, Arizona Cardinals
25. Mike McCarthy, Green Bay Packers
24. John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens

All of these coaches have made the playoffs, and either they have a Super Bowl ring to show for it or they lead a team whose history of struggling means that simply reaching the postseason represents a relative franchise peak.

Then there's John Harbaugh.

I don't think anyone would seriously suggest that Harbaugh is on the hot seat right now, but in making this list, I tried to play devil's advocate, and he had one of the strongest cases to move down.

Harbaugh has a ring, but let's face it—he rode one of the most out-of-character playoff quarterback hot streaks we've seen in recent years to get it. Joe Flacco has never been able to replicate that performance in the regular season. Baltimore's offense was miserable last season even before their starting quarterback got hurt, which only intensifies the halo around Kubiak's work with Flacco before Kubiak joined the Broncos.

The Ravens defense isn't in much better shape. Elvis Dumervil, last year's sack leader, is 32. LarDarius Webb is 30, moving to a new position, and hasn't been good for years. Terrell Suggs is 33 and missed most of last year with a Torn Achilles; Baltimore hasn't developed a pass rusher worthy of replacing him aside from Pernell McPhee, whom they couldn't afford to keep.

I don't think the Ravens are in long-term danger, and I think Harbaugh is a good coach. But so much of the discussion around coaches (and whether they should keep their jobs) tends to focus on recent narrative. Could Baltimore's defense collapse next season? Could Flacco continue to struggle with Mike Wallace at wide receiver? I wouldn't be totally shocked.

I think Harbaugh's past credentials would buy him another year, but he's definitely the guy I'm least confident about in this group.

23. Doug Pederson, Philadelphia Eagles
22. Dirk Koetter, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
21. Adam Gase, Miami Dolphins
20. Ben McAdoo, New York Giants
19. Hue Jackson, Cleveland Browns
18. Chip Kelly, San Francisco 49ers

First-year coaches tend not to get fired, so I would assume all these guys are safe. That said, Kelly has some unique circumstances working against him.

He just got fired in Philadelphia. He was publicly reprimanded for micro-managing and a lack of leadership by the press. Two months probably wasn't enough time to reflect and completely change his interpersonal skills. He couldn't convince Texans linebackers coach Mike Vrabel to take his defensive coordinator gig and had to settle for secondary target Jim O'Neil.

The 49ers also have a garbage roster. The only good news they received all offseason was the possible unretirement of tackle Anthony Davis, and even that is plagued with delays and trade rumors. Nobody knows if Colin Kaepernick is coming or going.

Mix all those weaknesses together and add a dash of "the 49ers just fired their last head coach after only 16 games," and this could be one of those special situations where it doesn't actually matter that the coach just got hired.

17. Mike Zimmer, Minnesota Vikings
16. Bill O'Brien, Houston Texans,
15. John Fox, Chicago Bears
14. Todd Bowles, New York Jets
13. Jay Gruden, Washington
12. Jack Del Rio, Oakland Raiders
11. Dan Quinn, Atlanta Falcons

The scare quotes are more about the momentum of these franchises at the moment, not the coaches themselves.

To me, this is the most interesting tier of coaches. After Zimmer and O'Brien, you've got varying degrees of the one-year turnaround; only Gruden has a bad year on his resume with his current team.

My biggest question mark in the pool is Del Rio. Del Rio was regarded as a guy who couldn't get over the hump in Jacksonville. In his last gig, as Denver's defensive coordinator, he had the same players Wade Phillips did and got little pass rush out of them. Pass defense was what held the Raiders back last year, when they finished 16th in pass defense DVOA. The Raiders have spent heavily in free agency this offseason, bringing in a solid No. 1 corner in Sean Smith, an old but good safety in Reggie Nelson, and the multi-talented Bruce Irvin. It's hard to call Oakland "set," but on paper—with what looks like a good roster, plus an offensive coordinator and line built to quarterback Derek Carr's skill set—they should at least take a step forward this year.

And if they don't? I wouldn't be stunned if Del Rio were fired, given his past rep, but I've got to say that it would be a surprising move this year. Oakland is mired in No Stadium Land, and that's going to keep the focus of ownership off the field. That could help Del Rio in the short term.

10. Jeff Fisher, Los Angeles Rams

If I owned a team with a No. 1 overall quarterback selection and the kind of defense the Rams have built from the RG3 trade, my head coach would be on the hot seat after four straight losing seasons.

But this is Jeff Fisher, the master of surviving coaching hot seats. And now he has the rookie quarterback excuse. (By the way, the Rams still do need a legitimate No. 1 receiver.) Is there any reason to believe that the Rams fire him? No matter how bad the 2016 record is?

9. Jason Garrett, Dallas Cowboys
8. Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints
7. Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati Bengals
6. Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis Colts
5. Mike Mularkey, Tennessee Titans

Some of these coaches got contract extensions this offseason. Some of them are coming off bad seasons caused by injuries. Some of them already have smoke coming from national reporters.

Chuck Pagano, however, wasn't given an extension with a long rebuild in mind. The Colts have owned the AFC South for nearly 15 years. While their divisional rivals may have contributed to this state of affairs, they believe that they are a big fish in a small pond.

So let's lay out this scenario: What if Andrew Luck coming back doesn't fix everything?

The Colts were able to buy time to lay a foundation for the Luck era because the rest of the AFC South put out subpar teams most years. Maybe it's Brock Oswelier turning into a good quarterback, maybe it's Blake Bortles or Marcus Mariota coming into his own, but those teams all at least have legitimate hope of getting better this season, which is more than they could say for most of their recent history.

Now the Colts are the subpar product. They've added little in free agency. Their defense is old and slow, especially up the middle. Vontae Davis is the only star that side of the ball can count on. Depth has been a constant problem, and while Luck brings the aerial show, that won't matter if Phillip Dorsett doesn't pan out and Dwayne Allen gets hurt again. Frank Gore is awesome for 33, but his age makes him liable to fall off a cliff at any moment. There is little in the way of proven backup plans anywhere.

So while I think the Colts should be favorites in the South again, there's a real chance they flame out. And if they do, is there any reason to keep Pagano or Ryan Grigson? What have they proven that they can do besides draft Andrew Luck and roll out patchwork solutions around him?

4. Rex Ryan, Buffalo Bills
3. Jim Caldwell, Detroit Lions
2. Mike McCoy, San Diego Chargers
1. Gus Bradley, Jacksonville Jaguars

Bradley has received little public criticism from the Jaguars, despite his 12-36 career record. Rest assured, however, that another 4-12 season won't get it done in Jacksonville.

This offseason, the Jaguars brought in Malik Jackson, Tashaun Gipson, and Prince Amukamara to try to solidify a miserable defense that had no pass rush last year. Dante Fowler Jr. will join them after missing his rookie season with a torn ACL, and the Jags have the No. 5 pick to help bolster things further.

I think there's a real belief that Blake Bortles became a legitimate quarterback last year. Indeed, there's a lot of literature out there espousing Jacksonville's youth. I love the receiving corps, but Bortles still has a ways to go in my estimation.

Given Jacksonville's recent spending and the growing expectations for their core, management desperately needs to hang their hats on some actual results. If Bradley can't deliver that, then they'll find someone else who can.