Manning-o-Meter measures the prowess of every first- and second-year quarterback on a weekly basis. It is, by nature, a subjective exercise. I will pepper in as many objective observations as I can along the way, but you will probably be mad with my conclusions at some point. DYAR and DVOA are Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted metrics,explained here. The goal is get a better indicator of how these guys are playing and where their teams may hold them back by play-calling and offensive personnel.
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The quarterbacks on the Manning-o-Meter are, from left-to-right: Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jon Kitna, Andy Dalton, Jake Plummer, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, and Peyton Manning. The scale is not measuring these quarterbacks against those players as rookies, but rather against a "vintage" performance by those players.Jameis WinstonTraditional Stats: 13-19, 209 yards, one touchdown, two sacksAdvanced Stats: 58.9% DVOA, 87 DYARGIF of consequence:
Thing that held him back: This wasn't as great a performance as the stat line would make it out to be, mostly because Tampa could not stop penalizing themselves.Analysis: Jameis Winston was barely asked to do anything in this game. He hit a few posts and comeback routes. Winston had one nice throw into a seam. He had a couple other nice throws as near misses because Mike Evans has played like he's 5-foot-11 rather than 6-foot-5 this season.But really, this is your standard game manager effort. Doug Martin was running roughshod over the beleaguered Jacksonville defense. Simple screen passes were going for enormous games. As you can see in the GIF above, Jacksonville just out-and-out decided some players weren't worth covering. That lead to issues.I can't in good conscience give this game a super-high rating. It was a very effective game, but Winston wasn't really put in many problematic positions. The offensive line delivered a few sacks, as they tend to do, but, for once, this game was handed to Winston on a platter. To his credit, he showed he knows exactly how to play it when that happens.
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Blake BortlesTraditional Stats: 23-33, 303 yards, four touchdowns, one interception, six sacksAdvanced Stats: 16.3% DVOA, 71 DYARGIF of consequence:
Thing you can blame for a poor performance: Once again, we're at the part of this column where I tell you I think Bortles underperforms the talent around him. Lots of quarterbacks could do worse than Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns.Analysis: Alright, interesting mix of ingredients in this game. The reason I picked this .gif above is because Bortles was wildly successful on this particular throw throughout the game. Any time Tampa gave him a zone to throw a post into, he was dynamite. The one thing Bortles has in spades is arm strength. And since Tampa gave this throw to him so often, the numbers were there.The rest of this game sort of came down to how effective Bortles could be while scrambling. Tampa sent blitzers after him often—especially up the middle. It worked, for the most part, as you can see from the six sacks. Bortles had one fairly successful scramble and a few other scramble drill plays, including his third touchdown. The hard thing about ascribing value to this is that Russell Wilson is a pretty unique snowflake. It's hard to find players that consistently win outside of the pocket in the NFL. If that's what we're depending on to launch Bortles to stardom, I'm afraid the ship isn't ever going to take off.This was a fine game. I am going to give it perhaps his highest rating of the season. But keep in mind that the Tampa defense was begging to be exploited here before you extrapolate the touchdowns and yards into his launch to superstardom. I'm going to need to see a lot more from Bortles in the second half to reach anywhere near that conclusion.
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Derek CarrTraditional Stats: 26-39, 249 yards, one touchdown, one interception, four sacks, one fumbleAdvanced Stats: -0.1% DVOA, 30 DYARGIF of consequence:
Thing that held him back: This was the first week where we really saw Oakland's offensive line get their pants pulled down. Denver's defense will do that.Analysis: Wow, does this stat line not even come close to conveying how awful this performance was. It was a bad week to be a Derek Carr believer.The Raiders threw quick passes—curls, flare routes, flat routes, screens—on 15 of Carr's last 23 dropbacks. Some of the non-short throws were throwaways and actual sacks. Denver's defensive pressure really made this game happen. Carr started getting hit in the second quarter, and he did not react well. Imagine Russell Wilson scrambling. Now, imagine the exact opposite of that. This is Derek Carr when he's uncomfortable: he's either throwing the ball right away or throwing it directly into traffic.Carr's pick-six was hilarious. Two receivers were running crossing routes and a tight end was running a curl —three receivers in the same basic area at the time of the throw. Neither of the receivers thought to look—did they really believe they weren't the primary targets on this drive?—and Carr's pass went right to Denver corner Chris Harris.Games like this really show you how much work Oakland offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave has worked to make this offense effective. He absolutely has to keep Carr from getting pressured. Against Denver, Oakland had no answer.
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Marcus MariotaTraditional Stats: 21-32, 182 yards, one interception, two sacksAdvanced Stats: -2.5% DVOA, 20 DYARGIF of consequence:
Thing you can blame for a poor performance: Buffalo's defense is very good. The surrounding offensive talent didn't play a great game, and the ball may have been spread around too much.Analysis: Mariota was essentially a one-dimensional quarterback in this game. The throw above was one of two that found their way deep. (The other one was the interception that sealed the game.) Both of them were ugly throws that could have been completed by a quarterback with more mustard in the cannon.Tennessee did get some added benefit from Mariota as a runner—a read-option play set the Titans up to kick a field goal.The general story of the day was that the Bills manhandled the Tennessee offensive line. It made Mariota a little inconsistent. There were throws where he was too indecisive against man coverage. Mariota also didn't look as comfortable throwing on the run. When you get this kind of play from your quarterback, and wideouts Harry Douglas and Justin Hunter toss in some drops for good measure, you won't get much impact against this Buffalo defense.I didn't necessarily think Mariota was abysmal in this game. He just looked a bit overmatched.
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Thing that held him back: This wasn't as great a performance as the stat line would make it out to be, mostly because Tampa could not stop penalizing themselves.Analysis: Jameis Winston was barely asked to do anything in this game. He hit a few posts and comeback routes. Winston had one nice throw into a seam. He had a couple other nice throws as near misses because Mike Evans has played like he's 5-foot-11 rather than 6-foot-5 this season.But really, this is your standard game manager effort. Doug Martin was running roughshod over the beleaguered Jacksonville defense. Simple screen passes were going for enormous games. As you can see in the GIF above, Jacksonville just out-and-out decided some players weren't worth covering. That lead to issues.I can't in good conscience give this game a super-high rating. It was a very effective game, but Winston wasn't really put in many problematic positions. The offensive line delivered a few sacks, as they tend to do, but, for once, this game was handed to Winston on a platter. To his credit, he showed he knows exactly how to play it when that happens.
Thing you can blame for a poor performance: Once again, we're at the part of this column where I tell you I think Bortles underperforms the talent around him. Lots of quarterbacks could do worse than Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns.Analysis: Alright, interesting mix of ingredients in this game. The reason I picked this .gif above is because Bortles was wildly successful on this particular throw throughout the game. Any time Tampa gave him a zone to throw a post into, he was dynamite. The one thing Bortles has in spades is arm strength. And since Tampa gave this throw to him so often, the numbers were there.The rest of this game sort of came down to how effective Bortles could be while scrambling. Tampa sent blitzers after him often—especially up the middle. It worked, for the most part, as you can see from the six sacks. Bortles had one fairly successful scramble and a few other scramble drill plays, including his third touchdown. The hard thing about ascribing value to this is that Russell Wilson is a pretty unique snowflake. It's hard to find players that consistently win outside of the pocket in the NFL. If that's what we're depending on to launch Bortles to stardom, I'm afraid the ship isn't ever going to take off.This was a fine game. I am going to give it perhaps his highest rating of the season. But keep in mind that the Tampa defense was begging to be exploited here before you extrapolate the touchdowns and yards into his launch to superstardom. I'm going to need to see a lot more from Bortles in the second half to reach anywhere near that conclusion.
Thing that held him back: This was the first week where we really saw Oakland's offensive line get their pants pulled down. Denver's defense will do that.Analysis: Wow, does this stat line not even come close to conveying how awful this performance was. It was a bad week to be a Derek Carr believer.The Raiders threw quick passes—curls, flare routes, flat routes, screens—on 15 of Carr's last 23 dropbacks. Some of the non-short throws were throwaways and actual sacks. Denver's defensive pressure really made this game happen. Carr started getting hit in the second quarter, and he did not react well. Imagine Russell Wilson scrambling. Now, imagine the exact opposite of that. This is Derek Carr when he's uncomfortable: he's either throwing the ball right away or throwing it directly into traffic.Carr's pick-six was hilarious. Two receivers were running crossing routes and a tight end was running a curl —three receivers in the same basic area at the time of the throw. Neither of the receivers thought to look—did they really believe they weren't the primary targets on this drive?—and Carr's pass went right to Denver corner Chris Harris.Games like this really show you how much work Oakland offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave has worked to make this offense effective. He absolutely has to keep Carr from getting pressured. Against Denver, Oakland had no answer.
Thing you can blame for a poor performance: Buffalo's defense is very good. The surrounding offensive talent didn't play a great game, and the ball may have been spread around too much.Analysis: Mariota was essentially a one-dimensional quarterback in this game. The throw above was one of two that found their way deep. (The other one was the interception that sealed the game.) Both of them were ugly throws that could have been completed by a quarterback with more mustard in the cannon.Tennessee did get some added benefit from Mariota as a runner—a read-option play set the Titans up to kick a field goal.The general story of the day was that the Bills manhandled the Tennessee offensive line. It made Mariota a little inconsistent. There were throws where he was too indecisive against man coverage. Mariota also didn't look as comfortable throwing on the run. When you get this kind of play from your quarterback, and wideouts Harry Douglas and Justin Hunter toss in some drops for good measure, you won't get much impact against this Buffalo defense.I didn't necessarily think Mariota was abysmal in this game. He just looked a bit overmatched.
