The Last False Dawn: Why Stephen Kearney Is The Guy To Turn the Warriors NRL Fortunes Around

Examine the 21-season history of the Auckland/New Zealand Warriors as a geologist would the layers of the Earth's crust, and you'll arrive across a frequently occurring event: the false dawn.

Warriors' fans know these club rugby league layers of violent movement, silt and – finally – compression, by heart.

They come with a big announcement and a parting of opinion in the press – and the feeling Deep Down Inside that maybe, just maybe, this is the moment where it all starts to go right. That the Warriors are finally going to become legit.

List off those moments: the birth of a first New Zealand first-grade club in '95. The '02 NRL Grand Final. The '11 GF. Blue collar hero Brian 'Bluey' McClennan being made coach that same year. Co-owners Eric Watson and Sir Owen Glenn's proclamations of big money invested, and the aim of becoming Australasia's version of the New York Yankees, the following one.

Right now, the dust is just beginning to settle around Mt Smart Stadium as the latest NRL epoch begins.

Last week, Kiwis coach Stephen Kearney was appointed as the Warriors new boss, on a three-year contract. Former coach Andrew McFadden was pushed back to assistant. A football advisory board created that includes a former World Cup-winning All Black coach, and a failed NFL head coach who is mates with Watson.

Once a Warrior, Stephen Kearney knocks over a Melbourne Storm player in the club's early years. Source: Youtube.

Leading up to last week's announcements, there was plenty of finger pointing for the ills of this season – the Warriors bumbled to tenth on the table – and press speculation about what would happen next.

Since, there have been all the hot takes, eye-rolling columns, tweets, re-tweets and calls for Manu Vatuvei to be axed from the club that you could imagine.

A fleeting glance seems to reveal a club handing out far too much money to a bunch of boys club suits (Sir Graham Henry, Eric Mangini etc), and the appointment of a head coach who failed for two years at Parramatta.

Loosen up a little and consider the true state of the Warriors – and you might find a first-grade outfit that could well be on the cusp of something new, and special.

Actual sustained success. Even though writing those words seems foreign and dirty, but for this former rugby league reporter, they feel - for the first time since that debut game against the Broncos in '95 - true.

Let's start with Kearney; the first Kiwi to clear 250 first-grade games in Australasian league. The foundation Warrior's appointment is spot on, or what Kiwis legend Howie Tamati calls "a masterstroke." Under Craig Bellamy at the Storm (2006 to 2010) and Wayne Bennett at the Broncos (2013 to 2016), Kearney has served apprenticeships under the NRL's two finest minds.

At the Kiwis helm since 2008, he has transformed the team from perma-underdogs against the Kangaroos to world champions with two Four Nations triumphs in the last six years. Even though he only won five out of 23 against the Aussies, his teams always seem to rise up for the truly big games – as evidenced above.

Sure, in 42 games as Eels boss between 2011 and 2012, Kearney only notched up ten wins. Warriors chief executive Jim Doyle bought that up when Kearney was unveiled last week and spun it this way: past failure breeds future success. Eels skipper Tim Mannah agrees.

"I think he will really excel with the Warriors," Mannah told Australian Associated Press over the weekend.

"I have seen him grow a lot over the last few years. What he has done with the Kiwis is pretty special and working under Wayne he will have learnt a lot of things.

"If it was another time it might have been a different story, I don't think he was rushed into it, I think he was ready and I think he is ready now," Mannah continued, referring to Kearney's brief Eels era.

"I always thought he would get another gig somewhere else - it was just going to be a matter of time."

A Maori TV report on Stephen Kearney being appointed the Warriors head coach. Source: Youtube.

Actually, while we're bringing up Doyle, it's worth saying: having the golf-loving Scot as the boss of the Warriors front office is huge.

Doyle is one of the NRL's savviest operators. As the chief executive of the NZRL, he rebuilt an organization racked with a culture of under-achievement and apathy and turned it into a model of efficiency – both on and off the field – for every other New Zealand NSO.

He shone too at the NRL as the league's chief operating officer. Legacy is huge for Doyle – it was a driving force for him at the NZRL. Doyle said Kearney was the Warriors first choice amongst a number of other head coaching options.

Given Doyle's mass cred through the NRL, you'd have to think the other options were good ones too, along the lines of Ivan Cleary and Geoff Toovey. Okay: the football advisory board idea looks a little bloated, and Sir Graham Henry was already helping out at the club anyway, but giving Doyle benefit of the doubt is worth it.

From a personnel point-of-view, Kearney - an accountable, affable bloke - has got some serious weapons in his arsenal. It's been said countless times already, but Issac Luke and Shaun Johnson improved as the year went on, while the return of Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, who suffered a season-ending ACL injury in week seven this year, will be huge.

Kiwis standoff Kieran Foran is a huge variable here, too. The former Manly and Parramatta superstar is lying low in Auckland at the moment, apparently working in retail, after a horror year. A betting scandal, a drug overdose attempt, a big contract being torn up by 'Matta and a very public relationship break-up playing out in the Sydney tabloids; he's had a lot to deal with.

The word is that Foran's on the mend thanks to his Kiwi godfather, and almost ready to put pen to paper on a NRL contract again. The Warriors will have the inside track, even though there's bad blood in the Foran family after a bungled attempt to sign both Kieran, and his older brother Liam, several years ago.

New Kiwis coach David Kidwell knocking over Willie Mason in a test against Australia. Source: Youtube.

Imagine that all-Kiwi spin: Luke, Johnson, Foran & Tuivasa-Sheck. That's top tier. Add in fast learners like veterans like Simon Mannering and Ryan Hoffman, as well as freshly-inspired blokes like Vatuvei (how about moving him into the forwards as an off-the-bench back rower?) and Ben Matulino and things are looking good. New Kiwis coach David Kidwell will be rubbing his hands together should that core get going well.

Bashing the Warriors is one of the great favourite activities of the Kiwi sporting public. Its roots lie in the rugby dominated landscape of the New Zealand sporting psyche, and, more than likely, the fact the sport is increasingly Auckland and Polynesian-centric.

Kearney's success at the Warriors would spin Kiwis out, and take advantage of rugby's slightly waning popularity in New Zealand, post the Chiefs stripper scandals and how the All Blacks have made international rugby so boring by being so dominant.

The funny thing about false dawns is they look exactly like the real thing to start with. Perhaps that's why you should never get too excited by them - but also why you shouldn't judge their likeliness to fail.