How Queensland's Election Could See One Nation Swept Into Power

On Saturday, Queenslanders will head to the polls to elect a state government. It’s hard to overstate how much anything could happen here. Queensland politics operates in a parallel universe to the rest of Australia: there’s no daylight savings, abortion remains a criminal offence, and gunslinging Bob Katter is one of the state’s maverick politicians.

And while the normal chatter of new schools and building roads is humming along in the background of this election campaign, there’s really only one story to watch: The real possibility Pauline Hanson’s far right One Nation party could emerge as the most powerful political force in the Sunshine State.

One Nation is polling around 12 percent statewide and around 20 percent in some regional centres, which puts a coalition partnership with the conservative Liberal National Party (LNP) very much on the cards. Even LNP leader Tim Nicholls has a One Nation partnership firmly on his mind. He experienced a slip of the tongue on the eve of the campaign when he accidentally told Sunrise viewers to support their “local LNP-One N … er LNP candidate.” He quickly corrected himself.

A partnership between the two would, to put it bluntly, be a disaster for Queensland.

Don’t get me wrong. There are legitimate reasons why storm clouds are gathering over the Sunshine State. Firstly, voters are fed up with the established two-party system controlled by Labor and the Liberal National Party. They are wielding their voting power to “protest,” by supporting minor parties.

But many protest voters in QLD are looking to One Nation—a party that’s put up a slate of candidates that should raise red flags. Both in their lack of experience, and their lack of an ability to grasp basic facts.

Malcolm Roberts is obviously the best known of these fringe figures. He’s One Nation’s candidate for the seat of Ipswich. Sacked as a federal senator in the midst of the citizenship scandal—ironically for being a citizen of two nations—he’s also a loud and proud climate change denier.

Mark Thornton, candidate for Thuringowa, near Townsville, is another one worth watching. He owns a sex shop that claims, “Good sex should be in the grey area between tickle fight and domestic violence.”

Then there’s Steve Dickson, who’s currently the member for Buderim on the Sunshine Coast. Dickson was formerly part of the Liberal National Party, but defected to One Nation earlier this year—loyal to any party that will take him.

This election could play out in one of a hundred ways—but some are more likely than others. Given the current polling, it’s unlikely either of the major parties will seize an outright majority, winning at least 47 seats.

The disaster scenario plays out like this: The LNP fails to secure a majority and seeks to form a Coalition government with One Nation. LNP leader Tim Nicholls has not ruled out forming a partnership with One Nation.

In this scenario, it’s possible a One Nation member would be offered the position of Deputy Premier or at least a seat in the Ministry. In the recent New Zealand election, Labour leader Jacinda Ardern formed a minority government with kingmaker Winston Peters of the NZ First party, who was able to negotiate his way to become Deputy Prime Minister.

Another possibility is that Labor fails to secure a majority, and partners up with independent MPs that are unaligned with Labor. A precarious government like this could hold, but it would become increasingly fragile as new laws are introduced and debated. You only need to look at the prime ministership of Julia Gillard—who ruled in a minority government with independent support—to see how hard it gruelling it can be.

On the flip side, there is a chance that Labor could decide to team up with the Greens. At the moment, there aren’t any Greens in Queensland parliament, but they’re targeting three key seats—South Brisbane, Maiwar, McConnell.

There are some interesting politics at play here too. The same-sex marriage postal survey has boosted Greens chances. Just a few months ago, almost 100,00 new voters were added to the electoral roll, including more than 23,000 in Queensland. Around two-thirds of these new enrolments were voters under the age of 25, who are more likely to vote for the Greens or Labor.

We’ve already seen the impact of this mass enrolment elsewhere in the country. Last week in Melbourne, the Greens won a by-election in the inner city seat of Northcote which had been held by Labor for more than 90 years.

If a Labor-Greens coalition does get off the ground, it certainly wouldn't be the first time—it’s worked in Tasmania in the past, But the idea of a progressive government in traditionally conservative Queensland would be sure to raise some eyebrows.

It could get messy. Brace for either a landslide victory or a drawn-out minority government with prolonged negotiations. Both are possible. Whichever way banana benders vote, it will be slippery.

Heath Pickering is a political scientist at the University of Melbourne.