Photo by Darren Whiteside/Reuters
Bali's Mount Agung is like a sleeping giant slowly stirring from his slumber. The volcano has been threatening to blow for weeks now, shaking the ground and sending more than 140,000 people fleeing from the villages that surrounded its slopes.But local residents are already starting to get bored. Some are returning home in the day, and heading back to the shelters at night. Is this smart or stupid? Can they escape the hot ash and gas in time if the volcano erupts? And when the hell is Mount Agung going to blow anyway?We called up Surono, the former head of Indonesia's Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation Center, to ask him these questions and more.VICE: So how bad is this eruption going to be?
Surono: Well, if look at the eruption that took place in 1963, at least 1,000 people died. But at least it wasn't an explosive eruption. It was impulsive, like Mount Sinabung.Back then the volcano kept erupting for almost an entire year. What are the odds we see the same thing here?
It might happen, but we really don't know for sure. When a volcano erupts the way Agung has, then it is very likely it will happen the same way again. It might not happen now, but considering that the situation is critical, the same level of eruptions can definitely happen again.
It's very hard to determine the 'golden time'—the period between the emergence of hot ash and the eruption. Obviously we want the residents not to wait too long before the eruption, but it's really hard to tell. Since the government has already asked the residents to leave the area, whenever the eruption happens, they will be safe.But when the waiting period becomes too long, it's the local government's responsibility to entertain them or educate the kids while they are living in the tents. I mean staying at a five-star hotel for too long would get boring too after a while.So Mount Agung's status was raised to awas—the highest alert level—for a while now. Why hasn't it already erupted?
I mean, when the sky is cloudy, it doesn't always mean it's raining, does it? But still when it's cloudy outside you want to bring an umbrella with you. It doesn't matter if it actually rains or not.
Mount Agung has been around since way before people started to live on it. So, in a sense, Mount Agung is the host, and the people are the guests. Guests need to respect the host and one way of showing respect is to visit the host at appropriate times, not when the host is occupied with other things.Let's just say that at this moment, Mount Agung is occupied. So we have to be patient. It's easier said than done, but there's nothing else we can do. It's not up the guests. It's up to the host. So we need to give it some space.Some of those who refused to leave claim they can outrun the hot ash cloud. Is this even possible?
People are just being careless because this hasn't happened in a while. Anyone living within 9-12 kilometers of the summit has to leave, and that's that. If we look at the 1963 eruption, those people would be hit by the hot ash. It can reach as much as 300 kilometers an hour. The ash cloud can get as hot as 800 degrees Celsius. I would suggest that people just leave.That's fast! So even being in a car or on a motorbike wouldn't help much, would it?
I wouldn't do it. The hot ash can reach 800 degrees Celsius. If you get exposed to that, trust me, you would be fried. When hot ashes pass within 200 meters of your location, you would feel the steam, at the very least, which can also reach 200-300 degrees. You would be burned to a crisp within seconds.Can the eruption actually affect the global temperature? The last time Mount Agung erupted, it lowered the Earth's temperature by a few fractions of a degree.
Yeah, that's just the way nature works. The eruption is the result of a process, but not every eruption is the same. It depends on the situation at the time I once said that Mount Merapi would erupt in 2010 and that it would be more powerful than the eruption 100 years ago, but it didn't happen. So it's hard to predict these things.There's a lot of volcanos on the Ring of Fire showing signs of activity right now. Are they somehow connected?
Not really. There are heaps of volcanos in Indonesia. If we said that Mount Agung and a volcano in Vanuatu were related, then how come volcanos closer to Mount Agung aren't showing any signs of activity? Volcanic activity is independent. It's not 'contagious.' It's its own phenomenon. So lets not make anything out of the fact that Mount Agung and Vanuatu are active at the same time.How bad is this going to affect Bali's tourism industry?
To be honest, I think Bali wouldn't be as beautiful without the existence of Batur and Agung. It's the eruption of Batur and Agung that caused Bali's soil to become so fertile. It would be even more romantic if Mount Agung erupts and the plants surrounding it recover just like they did at Merapi. And Merapi even has its own lava tourism now.
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Surono: Well, if look at the eruption that took place in 1963, at least 1,000 people died. But at least it wasn't an explosive eruption. It was impulsive, like Mount Sinabung.Back then the volcano kept erupting for almost an entire year. What are the odds we see the same thing here?
It might happen, but we really don't know for sure. When a volcano erupts the way Agung has, then it is very likely it will happen the same way again. It might not happen now, but considering that the situation is critical, the same level of eruptions can definitely happen again.
Local residents are starting to feel antsy. Some are even returning to their evacuated villages in the danger zone. How much longer should the government keep up the evacuation order?
It's very hard to determine the 'golden time'—the period between the emergence of hot ash and the eruption. Obviously we want the residents not to wait too long before the eruption, but it's really hard to tell. Since the government has already asked the residents to leave the area, whenever the eruption happens, they will be safe.But when the waiting period becomes too long, it's the local government's responsibility to entertain them or educate the kids while they are living in the tents. I mean staying at a five-star hotel for too long would get boring too after a while.
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I mean, when the sky is cloudy, it doesn't always mean it's raining, does it? But still when it's cloudy outside you want to bring an umbrella with you. It doesn't matter if it actually rains or not.
Why would people even live on the slopes of the volcano in the first place? Shouldn't they expect this to happen?
Mount Agung has been around since way before people started to live on it. So, in a sense, Mount Agung is the host, and the people are the guests. Guests need to respect the host and one way of showing respect is to visit the host at appropriate times, not when the host is occupied with other things.Let's just say that at this moment, Mount Agung is occupied. So we have to be patient. It's easier said than done, but there's nothing else we can do. It's not up the guests. It's up to the host. So we need to give it some space.Some of those who refused to leave claim they can outrun the hot ash cloud. Is this even possible?
People are just being careless because this hasn't happened in a while. Anyone living within 9-12 kilometers of the summit has to leave, and that's that. If we look at the 1963 eruption, those people would be hit by the hot ash. It can reach as much as 300 kilometers an hour. The ash cloud can get as hot as 800 degrees Celsius. I would suggest that people just leave.That's fast! So even being in a car or on a motorbike wouldn't help much, would it?
I wouldn't do it. The hot ash can reach 800 degrees Celsius. If you get exposed to that, trust me, you would be fried. When hot ashes pass within 200 meters of your location, you would feel the steam, at the very least, which can also reach 200-300 degrees. You would be burned to a crisp within seconds.Can the eruption actually affect the global temperature? The last time Mount Agung erupted, it lowered the Earth's temperature by a few fractions of a degree.
Yeah, that's just the way nature works. The eruption is the result of a process, but not every eruption is the same. It depends on the situation at the time I once said that Mount Merapi would erupt in 2010 and that it would be more powerful than the eruption 100 years ago, but it didn't happen. So it's hard to predict these things.There's a lot of volcanos on the Ring of Fire showing signs of activity right now. Are they somehow connected?
Not really. There are heaps of volcanos in Indonesia. If we said that Mount Agung and a volcano in Vanuatu were related, then how come volcanos closer to Mount Agung aren't showing any signs of activity? Volcanic activity is independent. It's not 'contagious.' It's its own phenomenon. So lets not make anything out of the fact that Mount Agung and Vanuatu are active at the same time.How bad is this going to affect Bali's tourism industry?
To be honest, I think Bali wouldn't be as beautiful without the existence of Batur and Agung. It's the eruption of Batur and Agung that caused Bali's soil to become so fertile. It would be even more romantic if Mount Agung erupts and the plants surrounding it recover just like they did at Merapi. And Merapi even has its own lava tourism now.