NFL Divisional Playoff Preview: Cage Fights and Doctor's Appointments

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots, Saturday, 4:30 ET (CBS)

How you feel about this game depends on what you make of New England's health. Rob Gronkowski was hospitalized this week. Tom Brady is reportedly dealing with a high-ankle sprain. This will be Julian Edelman's first real game back from his foot injury. Danny Amendola—well, he's been perpetually hurt since joining the league. Bill Belichick showed up to press conferences this week with a black eye, and I haven't even gotten to the offensive line, the defense, or the players who aren't coming back. There's no such thing as quietly doing a great job when you're Belichick, but this team endured a lot of injury randomness to be where they are today.

The Chiefs are fresh off a blowout of the Houston Texans. They've won 11 straight games. They had a higher regular-season DVOA than the Patriots. Their weighted DVOA is off the charts, thanks to all that winning and Brian Hoyer ass-kicking.

How does that play out on the field? I don't see New England bothered by anything Kansas City does on offense. Wideout Jeremy Maclin will probably be a decoy or, at best, decoy-deluxe after his injury last week. Alex Smith may hit a few downfield passes because of scripts, but he isn't a threat to go there often enough to change the game plan. The Chiefs won't get shut down, but methodical drives here won't be simple, because Belichick won't let them be.

The easiest path to a Kansas City victory is for Justin Houston and Tamba Hali to a) be healthy and b) bulldoze a subpar offensive line. Brady has shown the capacity to play poorly under those circumstances and even if he doesn't on Saturday, New England's offense is less impressive without injured back Dion Lewis.

My forecast for this game is low scoring. I think Kansas City has a fair shot to win, but given that New England has home field, a better quarterback, and a better head coach, I don't expect that to actually happen.

Pick: New England 24, Kansas City 23

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals, Saturday, 8:15 ET (NBC)

This is a great game to showcase the small-sample-size theater that is the NFL.

These teams last played each other in Week 16, and Green Bay's offensive line got devoured by Arizona: they lost 38-8, and the Cardinals defense scored two touchdowns. On the other hand, the Cardinals are coming off their worst ass-kicking of the season, a 36-6 pasting by the Seahawks at home in Week 17. And on the figurative third hand, you have Green Bay's offense coming out of their shell for the first time in months against Washington last week. There's a narrative for every fan here.

If you'll take the longer view with me … I think Arizona is the best team in the NFL right now. I know they got embarrassed by the Seahawks. I don't care. Bruce Arians' team was dominant from start to until they had nothing to play for. I think that Seahawks game will work as a wake-up call for Arizona.

This won't be the same sort of lopsided game we saw in Week 16. I expect Aaron Rodgers to get his. The Packers have been a bit better in pass protection, and Rodgers trusts his receivers a bit more.

I'm finding it hard to buy that the Cardinals just folded up their tents in Week 17 and they're done. That was the outlier, not the trend.

Pick: Arizona 29, Green Bay 22

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers, Sunday, 1 ET (FOX)

I know that it's a bit odd when the media focuses on a player's legacy when he's in only his fifth full season. I also know that, as loudly as you protest it, you readers eat that shit up. So, this is an important game for the Cam Newton legacy and brand.

Newton has been to the playoffs before, but never on a team that ran the conference like this one. He's got a playoff win over Ryan Lindley in his pocket, but lost to Russell Wilson and Jim Harbaugh's Colin Kaepernick.

Empirically, this game is a toss-up. Seattle is the DVOA champion; Carolina finished fourth (third in weighted DVOA). Toss in home field, and the Panthers are slight favorites. The Seahawks, however, are the NFC's juggernaut—the team that everyone else in the conference measures themselves against. This, I would argue, is Newton's first real chance to pull it off.

Carolina has a few things going in their favor here. They're the healthier team. Their inside-linebacker tandem of Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis makes passes over the middle of the field rough. Seattle's main weakness as a defense is that they allowed a 20.0 percent DVOA to tight ends. Greg Olsen is a good tight end, if you weren't aware.

Eventually, Peyton Manning was able to beat Tom Brady. Steve Young was able to overcome Troy Aikman. But it took a couple of tries. As much as I like Newton, what Seattle has been able to do on offense down the stretch is undeniable. Marshawn Lynch says he's ready (for real this time!). I'm bothered by how often the Seahawks got away with no-showing this season—including last week—but I think Carolina will see Seattle giving it their best shot.

Pick: Seattle 27, Carolina 18

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos, Sunday, 4:40 ET (CBS)

As with the other AFC game, this matchup hinges on the infirmary table.

The Steelers survived in Cincinnati, but just barely. After taking a multitude of cheap shots in that game, star wideout Antonio Brown has been ruled out for Sunday's game with a concussion. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger reportedly tore ligaments in his shoulder and has a sprained AC joint; he barely practiced Thursday. Everything I've read and digested about this situation is screaming at me to stay away from the Pittsburgh offense.

That's exactly what you want to see if you're a Broncos fan. Denver's defense is looking for vengeance after blowing a game against Roethlisberger in December. Without Brown as a safety blanket, Pittsburgh loses its most reliable source of yardage. With DeAngelo Williams also likely to miss this game, Fitzgerald Toussaint won't add much in the running game.

I have my doubts about this Peyton Manning revival script we're writing out in Denver. All he did in Week 17 was inspire the team via the magic of handing off. Anyone can do that. I'd approach this narrative with cautious pessimism until we see more evidence on the field.

As long as Roethlisberger isn't totally ineffective due to his injuries, I think this game is close. A lot of me wants to pick Pittsburgh to win regardless of Brown's status, but I think the Steelers may just be too banged up to hang with Denver at this point in the season.

Pick: Denver 21, Pittsburgh 17