By The Numbers, How Villanova and North Carolina Can Win

This feature is part of VICE Sports' March Madness coverage.

The NCAA tournament championship game is tonight, and according to advanced statistics, the top two teams in the country will be meeting for college basketball's national title for the first time since 2008.

Both Villanova and North Carolina won Final Four blowouts on Saturday, with the Tar Heels beating Syracuse by 17 and the Wildcats beating Oklahoma by a whopping 44 points. We should expect a much closer contest in the title game, with two stylistically different but evenly-matched offensive juggernauts going head-to-head.

Here's the overall statistical breakdown, with KenPom.com national rankings in parentheses:

While neither team has many weaknesses, there are a few advantages each one can exploit in order to win. Let's take a closer look.

There's a myth surrounding Villanova basketball that the Wildcats are only three-point shooters. While they do take a lot of threes, they're actually far better at shooting two-pointers. In fact, Villanova ranks No. 2 in the country in that category, compared to No. 117 from beyond the arc.

Villanova has been in just about every game it has played this season because of its two-point shooting, which has gotten even better as the year has gone on. Moreover, the Wildcats can win even if they aren't shooting well from deep, as they proved by beating top-seeded Kansas in the Elite Eight while shooting just 22 percent from outside. When Villanova's threes are falling, as they have been for most of the NCAA Tournament, the Wildcats are virtually impossible to stop. Take their games against Oklahoma, Miami, and Iowa—all very good teams that Villanova absolutely destroyed.

It will be hard for the Wildcats to blow out the Tar Heels regardless of how well Villanova shoots, as North Carolina has the most efficient offense in the country and figures to put up points. However, it's safe to say that if either team shoots over 50 percent from three, they have a very good chance to win the title. That's generally true, of course, but in a game between two ultra-efficient offenses, an edge from the perimeter could be the difference.

North Carolina is almost certainly not going to hit that mark, but Villanova has a decent chance. The Wildcats are shooting with confidence, and they've already done it against three quality opponents.

Given how poorly North Carolina shoots from beyond the arc, its aforementioned efficiency is truly remarkable. Almost baffling. The Tar Heels rank No. 294 nationally in three-point percentage. Yet because they're so incredible at getting points off two-point shots—either by making the shot or rebounding their own misses—the Heels are more efficient than anyone.

To see what sets North Carolina apart from the rest of the country, go back to Villanova's victory against Kansas. The Wildcats didn't shoot well, and they still won, in part because Kansas also played pretty terribly on offense. KU shot about as poorly from three as you would expect from North Carolina. Like the Tar Heels, the Jayhawks shot an impressive 61 percent from two. Both stats would seem to bode poorly for North Carolina in tonight's championship game, but Kansas finished with just 0.91 points per possession, and a loss, because it rebounded just 21 percent of its own misses and kept firing away from beyond the arc even though that wasn't working.

In a game where both teams are shooting poorly from beyond the arc, as was the case in Kansas-Villanova, North Carolina will have the upper hand. The Tar Heels make more of their twos, but perhaps most importantly, they will, on average, rebound twice as many of their own misses as Kansas did against Villanova. That provides far more opportunities for points.

UNC also knows what it is—a team that doesn't make a lot of three-pointers, and therefore doesn't take many of them, ranking No. 338 nationally in three-pointer ratio. They also know that their best bet is to keep taking two-pointers and crashing the offensive boards. While Kansas kept taking and missing long-range shots, there's little chance the Tar Heels will do the same against the Wildcats. They will look to score in transition and play ground-and-pound in the halfcourt, taking advantage of their size, speed and deft frontcourt passing.

Villanova has won games against great teams before, even when it doesn't shoot well. But while that's never easy, it promises to be harder to do against North Carolina than just about anyone else in the country. The Tar Heels are extraordinarily efficient on their possessions, and they play to their strengths. If both teams shoot poorly, or merely average, North Carolina has the edge. And in a game this evenly matched, even a slight edge could be the difference.