Tony Romo Injury: Fantasy Implications

When Tony Romo spoke about his back injury last Friday, here's what he said:

"I feel good about the fact that was probably as tough of a hit I've taken on the back as I've had the last five years. From that regard, I feel very lucky that I can hold up and keep going."

A day later, he was out with a broken bone in his back.

And so we have another object lesson on why we shouldn't listen to what players, coaches, GMs, and owners say. Sometimes they're lying. Sometimes they just don't know what they're talking about. Jerry Jones told reporters Thursday night that Romo's removal after a huge hit against the Seahawks was a coaches' decision. "Romo's back is tight. He's not injured." Uh-huh. The larger point is: I guess who cares if they're lying per se. They aren't speaking truth, whether or not they know they're not speaking truth. So why do we hang on their words?

Anyway, Romo will miss significant time. Maybe it'll be half the season. Maybe it'll be more. But the Cowboys surely weren't the same team without their starting QB last year. Does the presence of rookie Dak Prescott change that? Can we still hold out hope for Dez Bryant and Ezekiel Elliott, both widely hailed in most circles this summer as first-round fantasy picks? I wish I had an easy answer.

After a few surprising preseason performances, Prescott is getting Russell Wilson comparisons. I understand that impulse: he's an exceptional runner, he has a big arm, and he was never considered a future NFL star while in college. Unlike Wilson, Prescott has no size concerns; he's 6'2" and 238 pounds. Also unlike Wilson, though, the reason Prescott wasn't considered a good NFL prospect—despite a wildly productive career at Mississippi State—came down to poor throwing mechanics. His footwork as a thrower was an inconsistent mess, and it led to accuracy problems especially when he was under duress. As a senior in 2015, too many times Prescott got himself in contorted body positions and tried to rescue himself with throws that were all arm, no legs; the results were dreadful. I have a difficult time believing that all he needed was a few months' tutoring from Jason Garrett. It always takes more time.

So unless you wear the rosiest of rose-colored glasses, let's assume that Prescott isn't ready to be Romo or a latter-day Wilson. (Remember: in his rookie season, Wilson never had a game where he passed for 300 yards, and had nine contests where threw for fewer than 200.) That doesn't mean he's not a good prospect—he's a way better prospect than I ever imagined he'd be—but rather that the Cowboys offense won't and can't be the high-octane machine we envision when Romo is under center. Prescott himself has some fantasy appeal in a two-QB league as a player who runs well; heck, even Tim Tebow had fantasy-relevant seasons because of his rushing. But if Prescott plays the full year, I don't think even a 3,500-yard passing season would be on the table.

The more urgent question for fantasy purposes is: What does this do to Bryant and Elliott?

I lowered Bryant. In standard leagues, he was my No. 4 wideout and No. 7 overall player; now I have him at No. 11 and No. 23, respectively. For some readers, that will be too extreme a downgrade. For others, it won't be severe enough. My Twitter feed (@HarrisFootball) is littered with folks on both sides. And I can't tell any of these people they're wrong! As a player, Bryant didn't change overnight. He's still a beast, still one of the great end-zone threats in the game.

And maybe the quality of Dez's quarterbacking didn't change, either, in which case I've overreacted. Or maybe it's as bad as last year, when Messrs. Weeden and Cassel roamed Big D, in which case I didn't lower him enough. My ranking adjustment came down to comfort. I don't know very much about Prescott, and thought, OK, yes, he did seem comfortable in the preseason, he was capable of moving around fluidly in the pocket, he was capable of throwing accurately. But I also know that, moving from the preseason to the regular season, it really isn't even the same game: defenses just weren't pushing him they way they'll push him starting Week 1. Right now No. 23 overall is where I felt comfortable taking a crack at Bryant. Your mileage may vary.

As for Zeke Elliott? I guarantee if you listen to enough pundits, you'll hear someone say, "They'll have to run more, that's good for Zeke!" and someone else will say, "This makes it harder for Zeke, defenses will be more stacked against him!" I call these "crutch arguments" because either one could be true, but neither is necessarily true. There have been plenty of cases in NFL history where a starting QB has gone down and it's been good for the running back, but there have been plenty of cases where the QB went down and the entire offense turned to poop. I already didn't rank Zeke as a first-rounder in re-draft leagues—he's No. 19 on my standard-league list—so I felt like I'd already baked enough risk into his rank and didn't move him.

Of course, I'm not automatically right on all this. There's one big unknown here: Dak Prescott has never taken a NFL snap that mattered. That's risk only you can process for yourself, given your personal risk tolerance and your ability to solve problems on your league's waiver wire. Obviously, this is a situation I'm concerned about for my own fantasy teams. But if you're not? If you're sold on Prescott and don't want to downgrade these Cowboys weapons? I can't definitively tell you you're wrong.

For fantasy football advice based on film review every single weekday from now until 2017, listen to the Harris Football Podcast at www.HarrisFootball.com.