Can Jeremy Corbyn Survive Labour's Byelection Humiliation?

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn leaves his home in north London following a humiliating blow dealt to the party by the Conservatives after snatching Copeland in a historic by-election victory. (Picture by Yui Mok PA Wire/PA Images)

Some you win, some you lose. Yesterday's by-elections saw Jeremy Corbyn suffer a humiliating defeat to the Tories in Copeland, a die hard Labour seat since 1924, but fend off UKIP's ambitions in Brexit-supporting Stoke. So is it curtains for Corbyn?

Probably not. Well, not now at least. By winning one, Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University thinks, "Corbyn's probably safe until he chooses to go". If he'd lost Stoke the pressure would have been far greater, "because of fears of UKIP eating into the party's working class vote – even though losing to the Tories in Copeland is actually much more indicative of how much trouble the party is in electorally in the short-term."

Iain Begg, research fellow at the LSE, agrees. He thinks the outcome of these by-elections has been another major test of Corbyn's effectiveness as Labour leader. "Having won twice in leadership elections by mobilising support from the party membership, he is not likely to face another direct challenge. But many in the party – and not just among those who might be called the Blairites – are growing increasingly apprehensive about what his weak and inconsistent leadership is doing to the party in its traditional heartlands," he says. By failing to hold on to both seats, Begg reckons even those hitherto supportive of him may soon conclude that he has become a, "no-hoper who risks inflicting lasting damage on the party."

Despite one win for Labour, there's not much to celebrate. Yes, they managed to fend off UKIP's Paul Nuttall – a man forced to admit that claims he lost close friends at Hillsborough were bullshit – but Copeland paints a sadder and more worrying picture for the party. The moderate Labour candidate Gillian Troughton, defeated by the Conservatives' Trudy Harrison, marks the first time a governing party has taken a seat from another party in a byelection in 35 years.

Labour's campaign in Copeland focused heavily on Tory-backed plans to close the maternity unit at a new hospital, meaning the nearest service will be an hour-long drive away in Carlisle. Despite Theresa May's embarrassing evasiveness on this, it's clear that Corbyn can no longer hide behind the NHS – an issue on which May leads anyway.

For Corbyn supporters there are other explanations. "I think both the by-elections were difficult for us," said one Labour councillor. "In Copeland especially, the incumbent MP has really diminished Labour's majority. In the Stoke constituency they were looking to vote for a local non-elite candidate. The problems in these constituencies predate Jeremy Corbyn. He's not the cause of these difficulties."

Corbyn's own statement struck a more sombre note but seemed to blame the establishment. "Our message was not enough to win through in Copeland," he said. "In both campaigns, Labour listened to thousands of voters on the doorstep. Both constituencies, like so many in Britain, have been let down by the political establishment. To win power to rebuild and transform Britain, Labour will go further to reconnect with voters, and break with the failed political consensus."

If Labour had been hit by a double whammy, and lost both, this would probably have been the beginning of the end for Corbyn – perhaps not straight away but probably by the end of the summer. Whatever happens, Bale reckons, "the daggers will have to be plunged by the Corbynistas themselves not by the 'moderates', who would do best to sit on their hands and hope someone does their work for them so as to avoid accusations of another coup-attempt."

For the centrists campaigning on the doorsteps, these results are no surprise. According to one source, UKIP's campaign in Stoke was "awful" and was outdone by the far more experienced Labour operation. In Copeland, however, which voted 62 perecent to leave Europe, the responses on the ground had been worrying all along. Many known Labour supporters didn't want to answer the door. Those that did were not the biggest fans of Corbyn largely because of his perceived hostility to the nuclear industry – which employs more than 10,000 workers in the west Cumbrian constituency.

Campaigning was bleak. The weather was shit, centrists were sharing carpools with Momentum members, and most activists had the door slammed in their face at some point or other. There's no ideal situation for the party from here. Two wins would have had a bit of a calming effect. But with a stalemate like this, where do they go from here? What next for the Labour party?

Like many Labour's supporters and campaigners, Bale thinks the outlook is bleak. "As for a successor, if it's from the left, who cares? They will get thrashed at the next general election. If it's a centrist, they might limit the damage, but that's the best anyone can really do in or before 2020."

@tessreidy