Voters Brace for Violence in Hyper-Polarized Bolivian Presidential Elections

Just under a year ago, Evo Morales, the then-president of Bolivia, broadcast an announcement that marked the end of an era: he was resigning. Angry mobs had burned down the houses of his sister and some of his ministers. “If you want, you can burn my house down, but leave my family alone,” he said.

Before the broadcast ended, his Vice President Álvaro García Linera looked straight into the camera. He said, slowly, “We will be back, and we will be millions.”

The announcement came after observers from the Organization of American States raised suspicions that there had been irregularities in the election when results showed a swing in favour of Morales late in the count.

This Sunday, Bolivians will go to the polls in a much-anticipated election that will end a year under the rule of a conservative, repressive interim government. Interim President Jeanine Áñez has ruled herself out of the running.

But there are doubts as to whether the vote can return stability to the country.

In the clashes and state repression that followed the 2019 election, thirty-six people were killed, hundreds injured, and actors on both sides of the political divide watched their houses go up in flames.

The interim presidency fell to conservative senator Jeanine Áñez. Under her watch, indigenous protesters have been massacred by security forces. Many former members of Morales’ government have been charged with serious crimes such as terrorism and sedition, often with dubious legitimacy, raising concerns that the elections may not be free or fair.

The departure of Morales, an indigenous leftist who was in power for almost 14 years - which many observers saw as a coup - revived bitter racial and class tensions between the indigenous majority and its traditional elites.

Now, profound polarization is prompting doubts that elections will be enough to heal the divide.

Luis Arce, Morales’ former finance minister, is the candidate for Morales’ party, the Movement Towards Socialism (known as MAS, its Spanish initials) and is widely credited for the government’s economic success. Arce is currently topping polls.

Second behind him in the polls is Carlos Mesa, a former president and vice president who leads the coalition Civic Community. A historian and journalist by trade, supporters see Mesa as a dignified, intellectual centrist. He portrays himself as a modern, professional politician who would shore up Bolivia’s institutions, root out corruption, and drive the economy through sustainable development.

To win, candidates need either 40% of valid votes with a lead of at least 10 percentage points over the runner-up, or over 50% of the vote. If nobody manages that, there’s a second round of voting between the top two candidates. Experts are predicting either a second-round victory for Mesa or a first-round victory for Arce.

Also on the ballot is Luis Fernando Camacho, a far-right religious conservative businessman and leader of last year’s anti-Morales protests. With around 11% of the vote, he’s not likely to win, but he is popular with business elites in the lowland, economic hub of Santa Cruz. No other candidate has over five percent  of the vote, according to polls.

Stuck between a party they believe cheated in the last election and a disturbingly racist and violent far right, many voters feel they have to choose the least bad option.

“Many people don’t see Mesa as the leader they want him to be,” said Dr Jorge Derpic, assistant professor of Sociology and Latin American & Caribbean studies at the University of Georgia. “[…] They’re voting for him because he’s the only option to prevent the MAS from winning in the first round.”

“We’re pretty unhappy with how the candidates are performing,” said Jhanisse Vaca Daza, an environmental and anti-violence activist, who protested after last year’s election but doesn’t support the racism or violence from the motorbike gangs that have sprung up since, either.

Morales was Bolivia’s first indigenous president. His government slashed poverty from 60% in 2005-06 to 35% in 2018, National Institute of Statistics (INE) figures show. They also nationalized the oil and gas sector, the profits of which helped fund new state benefits for groups such as schoolchildren and pregnant women. He was adored by many indigenous, working-class and left-wing voters, and secured landslide victories in previous elections.

A former coca grower himself, Morales also expanded a legal coca production scheme started by Mesa. The leaf is sacred in Andean culture, but it is also the raw material for cocaine, which under previous governments had led to violent forced eradication policies encouraged by the U.S.

To many indigenous Bolivians, the removal of Morales felt like a message to them to stay in their place. “This coup wasn’t against Evo or the MAS, but against indian movements,” said one activist who didn’t want to give her name.

Evo’s relationship with some lowland indigenous groups soured after a march against the building of a road through their land was violently repressed in 2011. Environmentalists also criticized his enthusiasm for resource extraction, his attitude to farming on deforested land, and his inept handling of devastating Amazon wildfires in 2019.

As his presidency drew on, critics expressed alarm that he was lurching towards authoritarianism, undermining judges’ independence and muzzling the press. By 2019 he was running for his fourth consecutive term. Bolivians voted against removing constitutional term limits in a 2016 referendum, but Morales ran again anyway.

The day after the 2019 election, observers from the Organization of American States said they suspected irregularities, sparking a nationwide wave of roadblocks and protests that eventually led to Morales’ resignation.

Whoever wins the upcoming election will have a daunting task ahead of them. They will need to reconcile the two sides of this bitter conflict, and the question of whether anyone will be brought to justice, especially for the massacres committed during the interim government, is key.

Vaca Daza believes the creation of an independent human rights commission would help heal Bolivia’s divides. “A new government […] has to investigate all violations of human rights, and not just over the past months or year or fourteen years,” she said “[…] Bolivia has many wounds caused by impunity.”

COVID has hit the country hard, and although cases have subsided since August, many workers in the country’s huge informal sector have been pushed into poverty. Amid a global recession, the next government will be hard pressed to shore up Bolivia’s coffers.

Huge wildfires are still blazing in the lowlands, threatening regions treasured for their unique biodiversity. Both Morales and Áñez have been excoriated by activists and non-profits for failing to stop the fires and defend the environment. In a country that purports to recognize the rights of the earth, this will continue to be a contentious issue.

But first, they will need to hold the elections. “Given how polarized things are in Bolivia, if something strange happens like the [preliminary vote pause] last year it would generate another crisis,” Derpic said. “Hopefully nothing weird will happen and the people ready to go onto the streets will calm down.”

Cover: An indigenous woman blows smoke during a MAS closing rally ahead of presidential elections on October 14, 2020 in El Alto, Bolivia. Credit: Gaston Brito Miserocchi/Getty Images.