The Conservatives Don't Want Your Census Data

Harper talkin' smack. Original image via.

The Conservative government has been in power for about nine years, and we're starting to see the destructive nature of their more ideologically driven policy changes. Recently, the Tories have had to backtrack on their temporary foreign worker program (which allowed employers to pay non-immigrant foreign workers less than minimum wage) after the Royal Bank of Canada brown. In Alberta, prison guards went on an illegal "wildcat" strike because the newly Conservative built "mega-jails" in the province made them feel unsafe. This week, we're seeing the results of another misguided Conservative policy decision: the 2010 decision to scrap Canada's mandatory long-form census and replace it with a voluntary National Household Survey, the results of which were released last week.

Collecting accurate data about the population of a country is extremely important, not just for the federal government, but also for provincial and municipal governments, advocacy groups, charities, media, academics, and even for researchers in the private sector. The accuracy of census data is ensured by the fact that it's mandatory, and the change to a voluntary survey means that certain demographics are not properly represented, particularly amongst new immigrants, aboriginals, and the poor.

The results of this voluntary census-replacement have been branded with the disclaimer "We have never previously conducted a survey on the scale of the voluntary National Household Survey, nor are we aware of any other country that has…. It is difficult to anticipate the quality level of the final outcome." Amongst other revelations that are likely to be brought to light, it's already been revealed that the NHS information on immigration fails to correspond with information collected by the Department of Citizenship and Immigration. Frances Woolley, an economics professor at Carleton University, has pointed out in the Globe and Mail that employment equity in Canada will be hurt without accurate information on the number of immigrants and visible minorities in the country.

Somewhere in the recesses of your mind, you might remember the news cycle when this decision was first announced. Anyone who understands the importance of reliable statistical data was appalled. This included then-NDP leader Jack Layton, who tried to hold an emergency debate about the issue in Parliament, and Munir Sheikh, the former head of Statistics Canada who resigned in protest of the Conservative decision. Munir Sheikh recently resurfaced to pen an op-ed in the Globe and Mail, commenting on the methods used by StatsCan to come up with its data. In particular, the agency had to use numbers from the previous census to "anchor" the data from the NHS. As Sheikh puts it: "The 2006 long-form census will continue to be used as an anchor to adjust other surveys and the longer we continue to use it, the less reliable it will become… At some point, it will become a process of garbage guiding garbage." The longer we go without a mandatory long-form census in the future, the more inaccurate the data will become.

The Conservatives claimed the census was being replaced because, as it existed, it was an invasion of privacy, citing possible jail time for refusing to fill it out. It's kind of a flimsy excuse, given that jail terms were possible according to law, but no one had ever faced them for failing to fill out a census. Critics of the decision correctly pointed out that the Tories were removing an effective tool for advocacy groups and media. If there's a shortage of reliable data on the Canadian population, then there's also a shortage of reliable data on things that the Conservatives have fucked up lately.

68% of people given the National Household Survey actually filled it out, compared to the 94% completion rate of the 2006 long form census. In 2006, Statistics Canada suppressed data on 200 communities across Canada due to a lack of reliable data. This year, they've suppressed data on 1128 communities, which amounts to almost a quarter of all Canadian municipalities. The communities in which data was suppressed—including many aboriginal communities—might be the ones that require accurate data the most. As pollster Nik Nanos told the CBC, "we can't have the same level of confidence in the numbers as we did in the past, because what Statistics Canada has to do is tweak the numbers in order to approximate where they think things are." If StatsCan has to move the numbers around to make them work, then it almost defeats the purpose of having a voluntary survey in the first place. Who needs accurate data when you can just make things up?

Meanwhile, Tony Clement, former Industry Minister and current Treasury Board president, is rehashing the "privacy concerns" argument from 2010 claiming, "We've balanced off the government's continual need for data with privacy concerns. I think we've found the right balance." Ironically, for a government that prides itself on being responsible with tax dollars, the scrapping of the census will mean that the government will be less able to focus its resources efficiently. Particularly in the rural areas of Canada where Conservative support lies. Saskatchewan, which went completely Tory blue in the last federal election, was hit worst by the data, with StatsCan suppressing data on 43% of its communities.

Without proper information about where government resources need to go, then it follows that the government's use of resources will become less efficient. Basically, they'll be spending more money on less rewarding ends. But hey, if it helps keep the media from knowing where Conservative policies are failing, then it all balances out for the Tories, right? Meanwhile, provincial and municipal governments are hampered with the same questionably accurate data, which will only grow worse in future unless the long form census is reinstated.

Both Liberal leader Justin Trudeau and NDP leader Tom Mulcair have taken issue with the survey results, but as politicians, they can't say out loud that Canadians should be forced to fill out the long-form census, because it could be considered condescending, especially towards people who speak English as a second language, have a low level of literacy, or work all goddamn day and don't want to deal with some stupid government documents when they could be relaxing on the couch, watching the fourth season of Arrested Development on Netflix with a margarita and a blunt. But, as I am not a politician, I can say it. Filling out the census is, like jury duty or paying taxes, a responsibility that should be, or perhaps needs to be, taken on by the residents Canada, and it won't happen unless it's mandatory.

Follow Alan on Twitter: @alanjonesxxxv

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