Christopher Harris' Fantasy Football Mailbag Week 3

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DiggGardens: Of the running backs who just inherited starting jobs, who has the most season-long value?

Let's name them:

•The Minnesota Vikings lost Adrian Peterson for most, if not all, of the regular season, and some combination of Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata figure to fill in. I'm more interested in McKinnon than Asiata; he's a Gio Bernard clone, but McKinnon's lack of size led Asiata to score nine TDs in 2014, when Peterson was also out. (Ronnie Hillman is also on hand, but I consider him more an emergency policy in case the others don't work out.)

• The Lions' Ameer Abdullah is on injured reserve because of a severe foot injury and doesn't figure to be a factor until late in the year at the earliest, but the platoon in Detroit will continue unabated with Theo Riddick, Dwayne Washington, and maybe Zach Zenner splitting duties.

• In Carolina, Jonathan Stewart is out for multiple weeks with an injured hamstring. Second-year back Cameron Artis-Payne will finally be active on game days and could get a chance to shine, but he has to deal with Fozzy Whittaker, Mike Tolbert, and Cam Newton as Panthers runners.

• Tampa Bay's Doug Martin will also miss multiple games because of a hamstring injury; Charles Sims and Jacquizz Rodgers will fill in, but only Sims is a candidate for consistent early-down work.

• Danny Woodhead is out for the year with a torn ACL, and the Chargers signed long-time third-down back Dexter McCluster to replace him.

• And Arian Foster will miss at least this week, but we don't yet know how the Dolphins will replace him. Promising second-year man Jay Ajayi could get a big workload, but he was in the doghouse after Week 1 and fumbled in Week 2, so Kenyan Drake, Damien Williams, and/or Isaiah Pead could be involved Sunday against the Browns.

So who's best for the rest of the season? I'll choose McKinnon for his upside. When he and Asiata split the workload two years ago, McKinnon was a fresh-faced rookie and Mike Zimmer judged him incapable of handling the full workload. He still won't handle the full workload this time around, but he might be ready for more. Second place for me is probably Riddick by a whisker over Sims, if only because the workload increase figures to stick for longer. In particular, in a PPR Riddick becomes a viable every-week flex. Keep an eye out for Dwayne Washington, though. He wasn't a particularly productive college player, but the Lions rookie had one very tough and fast run in Week 2 that hints at some upside. He's big and can move, so I think his ceiling might be higher than anyone else on this list. But his floor is that he'll give you nothing.

Eric R. emails: I picked up Odell Beckham a week early a couple years ago and won my league, and since then I've been looking for that early acquisition who might blossom. Is there a player like that you see this year? I feel like Josh Doctson is a possibility, but Phillip Dorsett was just dropped in my league.

Doctson is interesting because Washington made a concerted effort to get him the ball in the end zone last week, perhaps to their detriment, when they have Jordan Reed running around out there. I was never a huge Doctson proponent from his spread-out college days at TCU, but folks are forgetting how much he impressed evaluators this winter and spring, what a great leaper he is, and what kind of acceleration he has. He might be heard from. But I like Dorsett better. I think he belongs to the Antonio Brown phylum: players like Brown, Beckham, Brandin Cooks, and Tyler Lockett (he's not a bad candidate, either) who are impossibly quick and fast, and who can play on the outside despite their lack of size. Dorsett got a depth-chart break when Donte Moncrief fractured his shoulder blade last week (he's out four to six weeks) and should definitely be owned in all leagues.

Justin G. emails: When are you going to feel comfortable playing Sammy Watkins? Are you okay with the notion that he is constantly playing through pain? Is this just a losing battle, and should I look for a trade for anything?

Watkins is certainly frustrated with how much pain he's feeling in his surgically repaired foot, and he's causing tremendous agita among Bills fans and fantasy owners, too. The problem with dumping a player who's been quiet for the season's first two weeks and has a storm of "how badly is he injured" swirling around him is: What are you really going to get for him? A bag of used footballs? I think to some degree Watkins owners are pot-committed. You don't have to start him, and in fact, not starting him this week—if he's even active—against Patrick Peterson and the Cardinals is probably good policy. But you shouldn't cut him, because if the rosiest assessments of his recovery from surgery are correct, and this is just scar tissue breaking up, then he could be awesome again later in the year. And you shouldn't trade him, because getting nickels on the dollar isn't likely to net you players you can feel any better about starting than you do Watkins.

Tore B. emails: Where are you at with gimpy Thomas Rawls, a.k.a. "The Limp Bizkit"? What kind of player/value would you consider in return in a trade?

It's really the same predicament as Watkins: Rawls wasn't quite as highly drafted as Watkins, but you selected him to be a fantasy starter and the dude can't stay on the field. His broken ankle from late last year turned out to be more than just a bone; there must have been ligaments damaged, too, because his recovery time was just so long. And then the Seahawks give him back his starting job last week against the Rams, and he takes a big shot on his leg and can't continue. We never get good pictures of injuries from "Sunshine Petey" Carroll, but to this point there's no reason to suspect that this latest injury is related to his 2015 surgery. Still, again, who's going to give you anything for a player who hasn't produced a thing? If you want to try and deal him for another underperforming player—Hey! Here's an idea! Rawls for Watkins!—you could try that. But all such players come with big ol' warts: Golden Tate. Randall Cobb. Justin Forsett. Markus Wheaton. I agree that there's no reason to expect that Rawls is ready to be a star in Week 3, and probably he should ride pine at minimum.

TDs: Do you have any streamable quarterbacks for Week 4? I'd like to scoop them up now, instead of waiting until next week's waivers.

We'll see if I maintain this opinion once this Sunday passes, but at the moment I don't think there's a team I'd rather have my fantasy QB face right now more than the Raiders. Big free-agent acquisition corner Sean Smith was benched Week 1 against the Saints and didn't play much better Week 2 against the Falcons, and generally speaking you just see blown assignments and not the kind of pass rush you expect from a defense led by Khalil Mack. In Week 4, the Raiders visit the Ravens, so despite his up-and-down play, I don't hate the idea of streaming Joe Flacco for that one.

Alex B.: I was offered Dez Bryant for Allen Robinson. What do you think? Who had the outlier 2015?

I still have Robinson ahead of Bryant in my rest-of-the-season ranks, but after Week 2, the gap closed a bit. (A-Rob is No. 9; Dez is No. 20.) What was worrisome about Bryant in the season opener—Dak Prescott playing it close to the vest and not throwing it downfield much—got a little better against Washington, though Dallas is really still running a glorified college offense, with all sorts of boots and screens and rollouts. But Prescott has done a good job with what they've given him, and Bryant lit up Bashaud Breeland again and again on his way to 12 targets, seven catches, and 102 yards.

Meanwhile, how can I argue that Robinson is off to a big start? The Jags were down 35-0 at the end of the third quarter last week, and only made the stat sheet respectable by throwing it to the likes of Marcedes Lewis and Corey Grant. Robinson is a stud, though, and in the NFL stud receivers don't stay hungry for long. You could make the argument that Prescott is already a better quarterback than the inaccurate and out-of-control Blake Bortles, but I won't. The Jaguars are just much better equipped to take the kind of deep shots a receiver needs to be a fantasy superstar. And I can't call A-Rob's '15 a fluke. On tape, he is legitimately that good: big, fast, crazy hands, great leaper. In fact, the player he reminds me of most is…Dez Bryant. So Bryant's '15 campaign was the outlier, because he was hurt. I think they'll both be strong. I still prefer Robinson's situation.

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