Thompson vs MacDonald: The Fight for the Future of Welterweight

Stephen Thompson was once a gimmick, riding a hype train that had fans gleefully anticipating its derailment. Another one of those "as soon as this guy meets a real fighter" cases. Now, he is matched with one of the best fighters to bless the game and within grasping distance of a shot at the UFC welterweight title. There are still a few of the "when this guy meets a man who knows real Muay Thai" folks, but there are plenty of believers touting Thompson as the next in line for the welterweight throne. Many are even looking past the mixed martial arts savant that is Rory MacDonald and ahead to Thompson vs. Robbie Lawler. One can only hope that Stephen Thompson is too wise to make that mistake.

The Problem of Kickers

I want you to think for a minute about what Stephen Thompson and the Belgian karateka, Tarec Saffiedine, have in common. They're both kickers, right? In fact, if you were writing up the pre-fight graphics for the UFC's broadcasts you might go so far as to call them both "Strong Kickers" and then phone in the other two bullet points with an irrelevant statistic and maybe "Will to Win". They are both excellent kickers and black belts in karate, they both switch stances and do their best work with their right leg out of each stance. Yet they very different kinds of kicker. Saffiedine is a pounding low kicker, using circular kicks to chop away at the legs. These are usually set up with the hands or timed so that the opponent is in poor position to check.

Saffiedine is also a kicker that Rory MacDonald was able to defuse, crowd, and knock out with a beautiful C-cut combination. In that bout MacDonald's gameplan worked perfectly but he was still caught with some powerful low kicks at range when his mind wandered from the gameplan.

Thompson is more of a straight kicker, chambering his knee between himself and his opponent rather than swinging his kicks in like a bat. He builds on that holy trinity of old school American kickboxing best demonstrated by Bill "Superfoot" Wallace: the side kick, the hook kick and the round kick.

You will notice that when Thompson does land his high kicks they are often much shorter and make the mark by deception. He is not a wind-up power kicker. But the weight of a leg even slapping the head can be enough to score a knockout.

The side kick is what makes this bout interesting to me. While it works as a lengthy weapon to step in on an opponent with, the side kick is at its best when it is timed on an advancing opponent. Now this is where things get interesting—the answer to the kicker is to crowd him, yet the side kick (while undone by crowding) is a kick which is at its most punishing and viable when timed on an opponent attempting to apply pressure. Moreover, when crowding a gifted straight kicker—whether he be front kicking or side kicking—the chambering knee comes up and occupies the space between the target and the kicker, making it tricky to time a step in with punches as you would on a round kicker.

Baiting the Charge and Jabbing with Southpaws

Stephen Thompson's boxing has never been a deep bag of tricks. Instead he utilizes the same rear handed straight to exploit openings created with his feet and his kicking game. He makes men feel the need to rush to close the distance. Then Thompson can either give ground or meet them with a counter punch. His feet do the smart part, then his fist hits all by itself.

MacDonald provides pressure when he wants to but more often than not he is a cautious, methodical fighter. He is not the swarming Matt Brown, nor the wildly swinging Johny Hendricks. It would be something impressive if Thompson could connect his money counter on MacDonald given the latter's stoicism and will to stick to a gameplan even under duress. But then that is the role of the distance kicking game—Thompson doesn't rely on knocking a guy out with his flashy kicks, but he does make it clear that he controls the distance with his long frame and smooth footwork. No one wants to take kicks on the forearms and body while doing nothing in response. Just as Machida convinced opponents to take that 'extra step' for him by essentially running away from them, Thompson achieves the same by making it clear to his opponents that they don't want to stand at range for any length of time.

An interesting note for MacDonald is that this might be his second fight in a row where he is denied one of his best weapons: the jab.Like Georges St. Pierre, MacDonald has been taught that Tristar jab. Firas Zahabi consistently produces fighters who understand the importance of the jab and all of the options that it gives a fighter. Not so much how a fighter should use it, so that it becomes a requirement to pump two or three out with no meaning before real attempts to attack, but how a fighter could use it so that he feels inspired to create and build off of it. An educated jab rather than an obligated jab. Yet in the two fights MacDonald had against Robbie Lawler and in St. Pierre's bout with Johny Hendricks, the southpaws denied the jabbers their lead hand. It is so much easier to do that from a southpaw vs. orthodox (Open Guard) engagement than the usual orthodox vs. orthodox one. The lead hand is placed out and open, palming at the opponent's, occupying the line of the jab or knocking it off course whenever it gets going.

That being said there are southpaws who don't hand fight well or are not willing to occupy their lead hand just to take away the opponent's. Tarec Saffiedine went southpaw for some of his bout with MacDonald but never really took away MacDonald's lead hand. Thompson likes to fight in a range greater than the jab and to hang his lead hand low, but if MacDonald can put pressure on him and cut the cage, will that hand come up to hand fight or will it be occupied as a guard or a weapon and allow MacDonald to open up with his leads?

Ideal Gameplans

For MacDonald the gameplan seems clear: whether he is to grapple, to clinch fight, or to box he must close the distance to do so. For a look at how he might do this it would be worth studying Wanderlei Silva versus Cung Le. Wanderlei Silva is not a disciplined ring strategist, yet by keeping either too far away from Le or crowding him, he was able to avoid getting stuck in the range at which Le could apply his kicks best. Drawing out poorly chosen kicks at range and then moving in through their wake can be every bit as effective as crowding the kicker directly, and often is unexpected. It would be good to see MacDonald use some pure Muay Thai given his heavy round kicks—perhaps some catch-and-pitch, drawing out reaching kicks from Thompson and returning with powerful low kicks to affect the elusive karateka's base. Or even some of his vintage counter elbows as Thompson's lack of head movement has seen him caught out in exchanges before:

Certainly low kicking is an important part of the ring cutting game and should be used to punish Thompson's trailing leg as he circles out along the fence.

If MacDonald can get Thompson to the fence I would like to see a round or two of striking in the clinch while threatening takedowns, but a focus on damage to the legs and body would be most valuable in the long run. The side kicking and distance fighting games are both very difficult to keep up with the same precision once tired. Most importantly this is a five round fight. Thompson rarely goes the distance and has never been past three rounds before. As long as MacDonald can keep Thompson working he stands an excellent chance of getting Thompson to the ground in the later rounds and battering him from half guard. MacDonald remains, of course, one of the best ground and pounders in the division.

From Thompson I would like to see that maintenance of distance first and foremost. Then the side kicks to the midsection, but I would also like to see him use that technique to the lead leg more often. It has been proven time and time again to be an invaluable weapon in mixed martial arts: literally jamming an opponent from stepping in. MacDonald loves performing takedowns off of caught kicks so it might be worth looking to wind him with snap kicks and side kicks, only teasing him with the head kick until later in the bout when his reactions and feet have slowed.

While Thompson impressed everyone by fighting off the takedown attempts of Johny Hendricks along the fence in their first bout, he only found himself there once. That was in the early going and Hendricks cut off the ring well to put him there. As Hendricks was annoyed by work on the outside he became clumsy and simply rushed. Whether Thompson can fight off quality takedown attempts when combined with consistent ring cutting for a full fight is still very much a question mark.

If Thompson pulls off the win he achieves a title shot. If MacDonald wins he gets a huge boost to his negotiating power having hinted that he will try his luck as a free agent. You have two of the finest fighters and technicians in mixed martial arts today meeting and their styles are in no way similar at all. For this writer that is the joy of this sport: there is no set way to do anything. Should Thompson lose there will be plenty of "yeah, that karate doesn't work against the best" and should he win there will be as much of "lead foot karate is the future". The truth is that there are pros and cons to each and every choice made stylistically. The fact that no method is flawless is what makes this beautiful and keeps fighting an art, not a science.

Get back here Monday for the breakdown. With these two going at it and a decent card under them, there's a good chance something incredible will have happened.

Pick up Jack's new kindle book, Finding the Art, or find him at his blog, Fights Gone By.